I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[Johnny630]

If the Chiefs Bills game is really good tonight like last nights Packers 49’ers this Auction Might Get Extended till Monday, why not, it’s ok to do.

[Tabe]

It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Tabe

It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!

[53toppscollector]

Its just pure speculation and day trading. Jordan can't really do anything now to make his cards more desirable and popular. If Doncic wins an MVP or a title, people can flip the cards and make a profit.

If people looked at actual reality, they'd realize that Doncic has basically no chance to be considered better than Jordan. So his card price ceiling should realistically be whatever an '86 Fleer Jordan PSA 10 is worth. You can argue that if he has cards with a lower POP, like an NT RPA numbered to 99 or lower, I can see a PSA 10 selling for more than an '86 Fleer MJ PSA 10. But that is a small handful of very specific cards, and that assumes Doncic goes on to have a career that puts him in the discussion for best ever. Which is kind of crazy, given that Lebron is currently still playing, is a far superior player to Doncic, and already has a massive trophy case/list of career accomplishments, and some people dont even put him on Jordan's level.

Pure daytrading and speculation. When all of the sneakerheads leave the hobby migrate to NFTs or whatever comes after NFTs, I think we'll see the hobby return to something a little bit more sane. Lots of people are gonna lose a lot of money in the process

[RCMcKenzie]

I also don't understand Doncic cards. At least LeBron and Serena are clearly at the top, or near the top of the historical greats list. Watching him play, to me, he is somewhere below James Harden in skill level. He's the second best player on a championship team, i.e., like KD and Harden.

On basketball-reference, they have a stat called "similarity scores" through 3 seasons. Here are the names they compare him with...

Mo Cheeks
Calvin Murphy
John Logan
Glen Combs
Allen Iverson
James Harden
Otis Birdsong
Eddie Jones
Louie Dampier
Bob Davies

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!

I'm puzzled by this as well. Doncic is one of the most overrated, overhyped players in the game right now.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!

BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

[MarkBartholomew]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

The thing with Jordan is that he is the greatest, bar none, basketball player of all time, there's no denying it. There is no one on the horizon to take his legendary place. And basketball is much bigger than baseball around the world. So to me, his rookie cards will forever maintain their value, regardless of how many are out there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

Supply is only half the equation.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA.

He's 22. He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age. It took Jordan 7 seasons to win a title but he was still incredibly popular before that.

I get it - his cards are probably overpriced but the demand is clearly there.

[jingram058]

Why is anything worth what it is, especially cardboard that is easily faked, even encapsulated with a bar code? I damn sure wouldn't base my portfolio on cards unless I planned to cash out before all this stuff crashes.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Tabe

He's 22. He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age. It took Jordan 7 seasons to win a title but he was still incredibly popular before that.

I get it - his cards are probably overpriced but the demand is clearly there.

Like what?

I just went and had a look at the stats, and he's not really even close.
Jordan led the league in points two of his first three years.
Led in ppg his third year.

And one of those years was nowhere near complete. Injuries? Maybe, I forget.

Doncic hasn't even cleared 3000 points in any of his three years.

Steals, Jordan was around 200/year
Doncic hasn't even reached 100/ year


That's not exactly the sort of dominance that makes a 300K gamble more than a very long shot

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by steve B

Like what?

I just went and had a look at the stats, and he's not really even close.
Jordan led the league in points two of his first three years.
Led in ppg his third year.

And one of those years was nowhere near complete. Injuries? Maybe, I forget.

Doncic hasn't even cleared 3000 points in any of his three years.

Steals, Jordan was around 200/year
Doncic hasn't even reached 100/ year


That's not exactly the sort of dominance that makes a 300K gamble more than a very long shot

Age. I said age. Go look again.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Age. I said age. Go look again.

Age is mostly a non- issue unless it's something like a rookie getting into the league at 30 or something like that.

He has played well, but long term I think there's downside that's being missed.

He didn't get any college experience, which maybe hurts him as a player, maybe not.
On the other hand, it may be the best for him financially. He misses about 20 games a year, so it looks like he may not be the most durable guy. Rushing into the NBA at a young age will make him more, but if he's not really ready physically and becomes perpetually injured his career won't be as long as it could have been.

I doubt the early start will give him 18+ seasons instead of 15. But who knows.

I just don't see a card of him being anything more than a big gamble at 300K

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Age. I said age. Go look again.

Your facts still do not hold water. Jordan won an NCAA championship and Pan Am Games gold medal at the age of 19 AND an Olympic Gold medal at the age of 21. The Olympic medal alone easily overshadows what Doncic has done.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

If the Chiefs Bills game is really good tonight like last nights Packers 49’ers this Auction Might Get Extended till Monday, why not, it’s ok to do.

Johnny, I think today is going to be wild with 2 Championships on the line and for for those of us with skin in the game, the REA closing tonight. I can see myself stumbling between tv and office to check bids. Should be wild. I think even though it one of their sub prime auctions the bidding is going to be nuts.
And when we talk about dead fossils, let's not forget a very much alive former player dear to our collecting hearts: Willie Mays.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Johnny, I think today is going to be wild with 2 Championships on the line and for for those of us with skin in the game, the REA closing tonight. I can see myself stumbling between tv and office to check bids. Should be wild. I think even though it one of their sub prime auctions the bidding is going to be nuts.
And when we talk about dead fossils, let's not forget a very much alive former player dear to our collecting hearts: Willie Mays.

Agree ! Willie Mays is one of my favorites to collect.

I’m looking for a 53 Topps PSA 8 I’ve seen the 7’s on eBay and HA don’t care for them.