HOF Results

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cammb

Why is Minoso a clear HOFer and not Oliva?

Plate Appearances:
Minoso 8223
Oliva 6880.

Minoso simply played significantly more, which helps.

WAR
Minoso 53.8
Oliva 43.0

WAR values Minoso's overall production higher than Oliva's prodigious bat.

Speaking of which, they offensively come out about the same rate wise.

OPS+:
Minoso: 130
Oliva: 131

Both really came into the league at 25 (Oliva had played 16 games before his rookie year, Minoso 9) and came in hot. Oliva won ROY, Minoso deserved too but a Yankee got it. Performance above the average is done at 35 for both of them. Except Minoso played more during that time and didn't miss as many games.

Oliva dominated the minors, but he wasn't there for long. 64 Games in D, 127 games in A ball and 1963 in AAA. He was probably major league ready a year or two before he got into the lineup. Minoso had 2 excellent AAA years, and 2 excellent years in the Negro National League (one of which he played a few games of A ball too). Minoso was major league ready well before he got a real chance.

Minoso was excellent at most things, Oliva was an excellent hitter who missed more time. Oliva has 3 batting titles

Black Ink:
Minoso 19
Oliva 41

But, Grey ink gives the reverse
Minoso 229
Oliva 146

Oliva's batting titles are significant, more than most modern-metric fans think so. But Minoso was close to the top in lots of things lots of years, moreso than Oliva.

Jaws has Minoso as the 18th LF, Oliva the 34th RF. The similarity scores for both are not good. Minoso though, is a difficult to compare player. There is only 1 900 score for his.

Oliva was a fine player, and I am not against his election. He and Minoso both have very, very similar total value from their bats (OPS+, which has faults but it's faults favor Oliva because it effectively weights slugging higher), but Minoso was good at the small things and played significantly more while putting out the same value. I think it pushes him over the line, while Oliva is right at the line and could go either way. Minoso's career in the majors is a bit short for HOF, Oliva's even moreso.

Finally, I think Minoso is the best player of his time who is not in the HOF (before this week). Oliva is not. The best player of his time not in the HOF makes them a reasonable selection for the HOF, when that era is revisited.