Card prices skyrocketing

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I am a Ruth and Jackson guy.

I do not see any dips.

Plus the cards from the 20’s for Ruth that used to be fairly priced or under valued are escalating in prices and keeps going up auction after auction.

I think it would take a full blown collapse of the economy for Ruth prices to fall. Ruth cards from his playing days and the 52 Mantle seem pretty impervious to most of the market swings we've seen over the past couple years.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think it would take a full blown collapse of the economy for Ruth prices to fall. Ruth cards from his playing days and the 52 Mantle seem pretty impervious to most of the market swings we've seen over the past couple years.

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

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[MattyC]

An SGC 4 just sold for 100k at Heritage. There's lots of different data points out there and these days different cards in the same grade, and in different grading companies, can sell for very wildly different amounts based on the card. So it makes it very hard if not impossible to generalize about the market. I keep hoping for card prices to come down across the board, yet it seems prices just keep escalating overall for the best stuff.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

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Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

On the cards I was watching, LOTG prices crushed it last night (that CM Ruth was very pretty for grade). And prices in Heritage the auction before were silly high. Prices on big boy cards, especially old and rarer (as opposed to 1950+ cards that are as common as the last name Smith), just seem to go up and up.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

I don't really follow the market for Ruth cards so I looked up this 17CM Ruth on the PSA auction site. It is obviously a rare card so not many sales. I see a PSA 2 sold in 2018 for $66,000 so the price has basically doubled in the last 3 years.

Does that sound right for Ruth cards? I don't want to read too much into a few sales of a very limited card but it doesn't seem like this one got much of a runup.

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[MattyC]

I was in on the CM Ruth at the 80k level, but did not feel comfortable when it got higher. Seems like a big jump based on the most recent data comps available, and to me it's not like Babe won an MVP or anything to make it spike that hard. Was a pretty "1" though and congrats to whoever now owns it.

I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

[aconte]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I was in on the CM Ruth at the 80k level, but did not feel comfortable when it got higher. Seems like a big jump based on the most recent data comps available, and to me it's not like Babe won an MVP or anything to make it spike that hard. Was a pretty "1" though and congrats to whoever now owns it.

I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

I would agree with this. As someone who collects mainly 50's baseball cards,
I'd sell that Ruth in a heartbeat to buy the common stuff.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

[jsfriedm]

We might see what happens if three things occur at the same time: the Fed raising rates, a prolonged lockout, and a renewed pandemic. Not sure even Babe Ruth can beat that.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

Agree. If you are using that reference, is it not safe to assume that it's pointed at how valuable a card is? If I could afford some of those cards, the last thing I would be offended by is how other collectors refer to them.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

"Douchey" is not how I'd describe your posts, Ryan. You appear to be very passionate about your collecting and appear to have the money to pursue it your way. Good on ya. As for what to call a deal that you feel is significant, yeah, that's a real conundrum. Whether you characterize a deal by cost or by the rarity of the cards involved, there is always going to be someone who will see it as bragging when you talk about it. People definitely do not like "big boy" or "advanced" or "elite" or any other label that characterizes a transaction by magnitude, but that's not something we are ever going to get past. Schadenfreude and envy are just part of the make-up of our species. Way I see it, you do your thing, I do mine, and we all let each other collect the way we want to and try to come together as a community...of nitwits who play with childrens' toys and drive our non-collecting mates crazy with our excessive, obsessive focus. My main reaction when I see cards breaking records and soaring into the fine art price level is that maybe, just maybe, my wife won't think I am quite as big an idiot for having a SDB full of old cardboard toys.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I don't really follow the market for Ruth cards so I looked up this 17CM Ruth on the PSA auction site. It is obviously a rare card so not many sales. I see a PSA 2 sold in 2018 for $66,000 so the price has basically doubled in the last 3 years.

Does that sound right for Ruth cards? I don't want to read too much into a few sales of a very limited card but it doesn't seem like this one got much of a runup.

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Yes Alan a PSA 2 sold for $66k several years ago and yet a 1 just sold for $111k. If you google the various types of Ruth cards you will see the price escalation. Even on the cards from 1921-1929 that used to be undervalued or under appreciated. But now with the other cards being priced out of most collectors hands these other Ruth cards are starting to really jump in their prices also.

Generally speaking with are seeing the Ruth’s, Jackson, and the likes cards going for up to 3 times the price from just a few years ago. And it does not look it will stop

[JollyElm]

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

Very good point and I love your of list of collectorisms

[uyu906]

I used to think that qualifiers dropped the value of a card about 2 full grades.
So, example, a PSA8 Miscut of a 1960 Mantle All-Star would be valued like a regular PSA6. Is that no longer the case?

Originally Posted by JollyElm

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Yes Alan a PSA 2 sold for $66k several years ago and yet a 1 just sold for $111k. If you google the various types of Ruth cards you will see the price escalation. Even on the cards from 1921-1929 that used to be undervalued or under appreciated. But now with the other cards being priced out of most collectors hands these other Ruth cards are starting to really jump in their prices also.



Generally speaking with are seeing the Ruth’s, Jackson, and the likes cards going for up to 3 times the price from just a few years ago. And it does not look it will stop

A 3x increase over the last 3 years is probably average for a baseball card. For instance, Card Ladder's baseball index has gone from 4k to 14k in the last two years, which is 3.5x.

I would guess that pre war cards have had a steadier climb than post war and modern, and with so few sales transactions to look at you didn't really see a spike and dip the first half of the year. And it looks to me like all blue chippers are staying strong, from whatever era.





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[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

So true. Grades aren't created equal. Might be a technical 4 but looks nicer than many grades higher.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

Yes that card had decent centering, but so did the one that sold for $75k after that. It is not a card that would go for anywhere near 200% VCP, there are cards like that out there but that is not one of them.

My best guess is 2 guys got a bad case of FOMO and massively outbid on that card. It's an example of what was happening 9 months ago.

The PSA 8 pricing is interesting. There wasn't a dip on that card, although the $1.3m sale in March was less than a $1.6m sale in January which is unusual, since the market was climbing steadily from December through March. And all those cards look like really strong 8's.

I think it is hard to generalize from just a few sales. I have been tracking 100 centered Mantle cards for the last 3 years. I have posted about it before and don't want to get into the weeds of that on this thread, but if you are interested just PM me your email and we can talk further about it.

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[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yes that card had decent centering, but so did the one that sold for $75k after that. It is not a card that would go for anywhere near 200% VCP, there are cards like that out there but that is not one of them.

My best guess is 2 guys got a bad case of FOMO and massively outbid on that card. It's an example of what was happening 9 months ago.

The PSA 8 pricing is interesting. There wasn't a dip on that card, although the $1.3m sale in March was less than a $1.6m sale in January which is unusual, since the market was climbing steadily from December through March. And all those cards look like really strong 8's.

I think it is hard to generalize from just a few sales. I have been tracking 100 centered Mantle cards for the last 3 years. I have posted about it before and don't want to get into the weeds of that on this thread, but if you are interested just PM me your email and we can talk further about it.

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1 or 2 sales here and there can certainly create illusions with respect to the braoder market. And there are so many factors that can cause any one card to be worth considerably more or less than other "comps". I'm a statistician, so I'd love to look at the data if you've been tracking 100 Mantles. I'll send you a PM.

[Yoda]

To grade is human.