Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This particular analysis says that the tradeoff evens out in terms of run production, so there isn't really a "should" here in terms of ground balls vs fly falls preferences. However, in general, the mindset that you "could probably ignore" what the data says you should is a golden ticket to the bottom of the league. Try telling an NBA team to stop shooting 3s and see how that goes.

They are elite and at the upper end of the curve. They would not all of a sudden become worse for ignoring what is essentially an analysis for the average. While their preference on pitching started as such, they weren't elite because of their preference, but because of their skill they honed for their preference. You missed the point, whether purposely or not.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by tschock

They are elite and at the upper end of the curve. They would not all of a sudden become worse for ignoring what is essentially an analysis for the average. While their preference on pitching started as such, they weren't elite because of their preference, but because of their skill they honed for their preference. You missed the point, whether purposely or not.

It doesn't matter whether someone is already elite or not. If the data shows that doing X yields a 5% advantage or improvement, then you should do X. However, it may also turn out that you're not good a doing X, in which case you should revert back to not doing X. But that doesn't mean X is not advantageous. It just means that your peers who are good at X are going to start closing the gap on you.

This is precisely what has happened in the NBA with respect to 3 point shooting. So much so, in fact, that its effect can even be seen in the average player heights over the past 15 years. The mean player heights have dropped in recent years because teams are selecting for players who shoot 3s well and who are more capable wing defenders. The result has been a tradeoff of the taller, slower players who previously were selected for "protecting the paint" with their rebounding and shot blocking abilities. The vast majority of big men who remain in the league today have either learned how to shoot 3s as well, or are quick and capable wing defenders who are good at preventing them. Guys like Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, and Kristaps Porzingis are all capable 3 point shooters. The days of guys like "Big Country" Reeves, Greg Ostertag, and Kevin Duckworth making the league are over. This is entirely the result of the data saying "you should do X" and front offices across the league respecting the data.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The NBA to me, despite the remarkable athleticism, has become boring, and in particular the incessant 3 point shooting whether or not it's statistically sound which I am sure it is.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The NBA to me, despite the remarkable athleticism, has become boring, and in particular the incessant 3 point shooting whether or not it's statistically sound which I am sure it is.

Sadly I think it’s very statistically sound. To the point I hope they change it to a 2.5 shot.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Sadly I think it’s very statistically sound. To the point I hope they change it to a 2.5 shot.

Or move the line back. In the day it was a long shot, it isn't now.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Sadly I think it’s very statistically sound. To the point I hope they change it to a 2.5 shot.

Teams did the elementary math that 33% shooting on 3s is equal to 50% shooting on 2s. And 33% shooting on 3s is very, very easy for NBA players. So now they shoot 3s.

[frankbmd]

How does Kevin Duckworth get mentioned in a left handed pitching thread?

Where does William the Conqueror fit in?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

How does Kevin Duckworth get mentioned in a left handed pitching thread?

Where does William the Conqueror fit in?

What -- ahem -- WAR was he in?

[egri]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Where does William the Conqueror fit in?

At Hastings.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Teams did the elementary math that 33% shooting on 3s is equal to 50% shooting on 2s. And 33% shooting on 3s is very, very easy for NBA players. So now they shoot 3s.

It's actually not as simple as that though. Everyone has known for a long time that the expected value of a 3 from a 40% 3 point shooter is 1.2 points per attempt, which is equivalent to a 60% 2 point shot from inside the paint. But the analysis that enabled widespread changes in strategy came about through the discovery of the fact that 3 point shots offered 3 additional benefits that were previously overlooked. The most obvious of those is that it creates longer rebounds which are grabbed by the offense more often than shorter rebounds. But it also spreads the defense out wider because they have to defend against the 3 point threats. This opens up the lane, making it much easier for players like Russell Westbrook, Zach Lavine, or a Kobe type slasher to drive to the hoop without having to navigate a clogged paint with a bunch of big men. And the other value add which took a fair amount of convincing at first was that there is a great benefit to also just having your players be physically further back on the court when you miss a shot and the other team grabs the rebound. You're in a better position defensively at the start of the possession than you would be if you were down in the paint. It allows you to defend against what would have otherwise been a fast break, and fast breaks are extremely efficient scoring opportunities.

This opened the door for even much weaker shooters to be launching 3s than before. Guys who shoot 32% from 3 are now given the green light, whereas before, they rarely ever shot from long distance. Guys like Ray Allen and Reggie Miller always shot 3s because they could make them at a high enough percentage, but now we understand the added benefits even when you miss, so they shoot even more of them than before.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The NBA to me, despite the remarkable athleticism, has become boring, and in particular the incessant 3 point shooting whether or not it's statistically sound which I am sure it is.

Off topic, but the league has changed the rules this season so that it is harder for offensive players to draw shooting fouls (looking at you James Harden) and you are starting to see a more physical defensive game. Sure, there is still a lot of three point shooting, but you are seeing more scrums in the paint, too. My wife and I are Thunder season ticket holders and got an immense kick watching Luguentz Dort attacking the rim right at Rudy Gobert in last night's game.