Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Still interested in your take on Maddux having a slugging average against 55 points below average.

Don't all good pitchers have below average slugging against though?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Don't all good pitchers have below average slugging against though?

I don't know, but if that's the case, doesn't that suggest a problem with your thesis (as I understood it) that for balls in play, all pitchers are pretty much the same and variances are just dumb luck (random) that will even out? And therefore it was a myth that some pitchers were better at pitching to contact.

So what's a guy like Maddux who doesn't strike out many batters doing with such a low SLG against? It seems meaningful? And walks don't come into the equation, so he isn't keeping SLG down by his lack of walks. That can only mean, I think, it has a lot to do with batters not getting as many extra base hits against him, which if true seems contrary to the thesis about pitchers not controlling where the ball goes after it leaves the bat.

BTW this is what you said that makes me think I am correctly characterizing your thesis:
The extent to which pitchers actually have this ability (referring to the ability to control the flight of batted balls) is miniscule at best. It's probably at least an order of magnitude less than people are thinking of when they make that claim. Maddux rarely walked hitters. He led the league in BB/9 9 times, and was probably in the top 3 15 times or more. This was his superpower.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't know, but if that's the case, doesn't that suggest a problem with your thesis (as I understood it) that for balls in play, all pitchers are pretty much the same and variances are just dumb luck (random) that will even out? And therefore it was a myth that some pitchers were better at pitching to contact.

So what's a guy like Maddux who doesn't strike out many batters doing with such a low SLG against? It seems meaningful? And walks don't come into the equation, so he isn't keeping SLG down by his lack of walks. That can only mean, I think, it has a lot to do with batters not getting as many extra base hits against him, which if true seems contrary to the thesis about pitchers not controlling where the ball goes after it leaves the bat.

BTW this is what you said that makes me think I am correctly characterizing your thesis:
The extent to which pitchers actually have this ability (referring to the ability to control the flight of batted balls) is miniscule at best. It's probably at least an order of magnitude less than people are thinking of when they make that claim. Maddux rarely walked hitters. He led the league in BB/9 9 times, and was probably in the top 3 15 times or more. This was his superpower.

Home run rates definitely account for some significant portion of slugging deltas between pitchers. And any pitcher can attempt to encourage fly balls vs ground balls simply by aiming higher or lower in the strike zone, or with breaking balls. But there's a trade off between the two, as ground balls drop in for hits at a slightly higher percentage but fly balls drop in for extra base hits at a higher rate despite being caught for outs more often (not to mention more home runs). I suspect this is probably what's responsible for any amount of control a pitcher has over their BABIP, however small that is. But they still have no control over how often those fly balls drop in for hits or how often those ground balls squeeze through gaps or become infield hits, etc. My understanding is that the tradeoff effectively balances itself out though in the grand scheme of things (e.g., run production), but I'd have to do more research.

I think there's a parallel here on the offensive side in terms of game theory strategy that we're all seeing across the league as batting averages drop but are traded off for more home runs.

Exactly how this balance effects BABIP values, you could figure out. But fly ball vs ground ball rates is almost certainly the best predictor of it. This is why I prefer using SIERA for evaluating pitchers. However, we don't have the data needed to calculate it for the prior generations of pitchers unfortunately. But for today, it's the best ERA statistic that I'm aware of, and one of the metrics I use in my models. It adjusts for fly ball and ground ball rates.

[Peter_Spaeth]

55 points difference in SLG, over a career, seems to me (admittedly without research) to reflect more than just being better at keeping down HR. But even if that's a complete explainer, it still supports my thesis that some pitchers are more difficult to hit productively even if the aggregate amount of CONTACT tends to be the same across the spectrum.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

55 points difference in SLG, over a career, seems to me (admittedly without research) to reflect more than just being better at keeping down HR. But even if that's a complete explainer, it still supports my thesis that some pitchers are more difficult to hit productively even if the aggregate amount of CONTACT tends to be the same across the spectrum.

I think it's plausible that he also might have fewer doubles and triples against. If so, it's likely a tradeoff against more singles. If you could compare his singles to doubles rate against his peers and see if that ratio is higher, it would tell you.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think it's plausible that he also might have fewer doubles and triples against. If so, it's likely a tradeoff against more singles. If you could compare his singles to doubles rate against his peers and see if that ratio is higher, it would tell you.

Assuming it is the case, would you agree that it's probably not just the result of luck/randomness but is attributable to his pitching skill?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Assuming it is the case, would you agree that it's probably not just the result of luck/randomness but is attributable to his pitching skill?

Couldn't it also partly be because of outfield dimensions/layouts, who he has playing behind him in the outfield, the decision of the manger to often (or maybe not at all) use outfield shifts, and on an on? Luck can often, erroneously, be attributed to things that are otherwise not readily or easily measured, known, or ever recognized and acknowledged.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Assuming it is the case, would you agree that it's probably not just the result of luck/randomness but is attributable to his pitching skill?

I guess it depends on what you consider skill. Is it a skill to cause more ground balls than fly balls, or is it simply a preference? Some pitchers feel more comfortable throwing lower in the zone. As I said, there is a tradeoff between ground and fly ball pitchers. My understanding is that one isn't "better" than the other. Here's an article from fangraphs.com that discusses the topic.

https://library.fangraphs.com/which-...-ball-pitcher/

Along the lines of what I was talking about earlier; I mentioned that Maddux probably traded in a lower slugging percentage against for a higher batting average against. You could look up more pitchers than this of course, but a simple comparison of Maddux's numbers vs Randy's numbers certainly shows this tradeoff.

Randy Johnson
0.221 AVG, 0.353 SLG, 2.4% HR

Greg Maddux
0.250 AVG, 0.358 SLG, 1.7% HR

As you can see, they had very similar slugging percentages, with Randy's being 5 points lower despite him giving up 40% more HRs, but Maddux's batting average against is much higher than Randy's. There is a tradeoff happening here. It's a difference of approach. Throwing more ground ball pitches is going to net you more singles against than fly ball pitches, but fewer 2B, 3B, and HR.