Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

Do you have time to respond to my discussion on the WS statistics for Koufax and Grove? You keep mentioning Spahn, but the majority on this thread find Grove superior.

I think Grove was probably better than Spahn. But I can't say that with confidence without spending a significant amount of time making adjustments to control for the level of skill of the league in general during their respective eras.

But even leaving league adjustments aside, pretending that the league was every bit as strong when Grove was pitching (which it most certainly was not), Koufax still outperformed Grove's numbers across the board in the postseason, and it's not close. The only statistic that Grove was better at was BB/9, but Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees). Regardless, Koufax put significantly fewer batters on base, was scored on half as much, and struck out batters almost twice as often. What's there to compare? Koufax was significantly better than Grove in the postseason (and Grove was great).

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Either way, postseason performance isn't all that interesting to me. The sample sizes are just too small for it to be as meaningful as most people want it to be.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Koufax was 4-3 with an ERA of 0.95. There was another left hander, named Ruth, who was 3-0 with an ERA of 0.87. And a guy named Gibson who was 7-2 with an ERA of 1.89.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I was coming on to point out that people act like Koufax took forever to develop when he was actually incredibly young when he started and stuck on a major league roster because of his bonus baby status, same as his 1954 classmate Harmon Killebrew. Both likely would've benefited by a couple of years in the minors instead of languishing on a major league bench, but both were still a "normal" age when they put it all together.

Hey now, no giving out hints. G1911 has to solve this riddle on his own. He's a data analyst!

Originally Posted by Seven

Really? You're going to die on that hill? You're taking Ryu over a 13 time 20 game winner, whose JAWS rank him as the 13th greatest pitcher of all time? The Same guy who led the league in complete games seven seasons in a row? Is this a joke?

Yes, I'm taking Ryu over Spahn. No, I'm not joking. The number of games someone won is absolutely meaningless to me. You might as well be talking about his hair color.

Originally Posted by Mark17

Koufax was 4-3 with an ERA of 0.95. There was another left hander, named Ruth, who was 3-0 with an ERA of 0.87. And a guy named Gibson who was 7-2 with an ERA of 1.89.

OK, so you're saying Koufax was the best of the 3 then. Got it. As Ruth does not qualify with his 31 IP (and a mere 8 Ks) during the dead-ball era, and Bob Gibson gave up about twice as many runs and was slightly easier to hit off of.

Not sure what their W-L record has anything to do with anything though. Perhaps you could fill me in on that?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Hey now, no giving out hints. G1911 has to solve this riddle on his own. He's a data analyst!

I’m glad you now recognize how ridiculous fallacious egotist appeals to self professed total authority are!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by G1911

I’m glad you now recognize how ridiculous fallacious egotist appeals to self professed total authority are!

Sorry, but I'm not giving out hints for this one.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Koufax was 4-3 with an ERA of 0.95...

In each of Koufax's 3 postseason losses, he gave up 1 earned run. That bears repeating. He only gave up ONE earned run in each of his postseason losses. ONE.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Snowman

In each of Koufax's 3 postseason losses, he gave up 1 earned run. That bears repeating. He only gave up ONE earned run in each of his postseason losses. ONE.

Career WAR of 48. For the all time great, that’s too low for me.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Mariano Rivera. 8-1 record with 42 saves in 141 innings pitched. 0.70 ERA with a 0.759 WHIP.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think Grove was probably better than Spahn. But I can't say that with confidence without spending a significant amount of time making adjustments to control for the level of skill of the league in general during their respective eras.

But even leaving league adjustments aside, pretending that the league was every bit as strong when Grove was pitching (which it most certainly was not), Koufax still outperformed Grove's numbers across the board in the postseason, and it's not close. The only statistic that Grove was better at was BB/9, but Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees). Regardless, Koufax put significantly fewer batters on base, was scored on half as much, and struck out batters almost twice as often. What's there to compare? Koufax was significantly better than Grove in the postseason (and Grove was great).

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Either way, postseason performance isn't all that interesting to me. The sample sizes are just too small for it to be as meaningful as most people want it to be.

Wait, aren't you the one who said that this should boil down to who you'd want to start game 7 of the WS? Is this conversation about peak, career, or just one start for you?
Why do you have to "pretend" Grove's era was as strong as Koufax's, when Koufax pitched against the 1964 Twins?
Why do you bring up Grove's strike zone but not Grove's lower mound?

[cammb]

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by cammb

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

I don’t think even the “naysayers” have Koufax out of the top 3 or so. It’s the 5 seasons of greatness and not more that have him out of the top 2.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Carter08

I don’t think even the “naysayers” have Koufax out of the top 3 or so. It’s the 5 seasons of greatness and not more that have him out of the top 2.

I would wholeheartedly agree with this statement. Or, to allow for differences of opinion, nobody leaves him out of top 5? Maybe Spahn or Carlton has a case?? But Koufax was one friggin' awesome pitcher.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Carter08

I don’t think even the “naysayers” have Koufax out of the top 3 or so. It’s the 5 seasons of greatness and not more that have him out of the top 2.

Well, I would rank him 5th or 6th I think, behind Grove, Johnson, Spahn, Carlton and Kershaw, although Kershaw's post-season makes me not that enthusiastic. I would certainly rank Carlton ahead based on the overall body of work.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Well, I would rank him 5th or 6th I think, behind Grove, Johnson, Spahn, Carlton and Kershaw, although Kershaw's post-season makes me not that enthusiastic. I would certainly rank Carlton ahead based on the overall body of work.

Carlton in 1972 is one of the top peak pitching years. WAR has it better than anything Koufax or Grove did.

I’d throw Ford into consideration on your list, but I agree. Ranking 6th or 7th all time is not disparaging. It’s better than most statistical rankings would put him too. Koufax is 89th in pitching WAR.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Carlton in 1972 is one of the top peak pitching years. WAR has it better than anything Koufax or Grove did.

I’d throw Ford into consideration on your list, but I agree. Ranking 6th or 7th all time is not disparaging. It’s better than most statistical rankings would put him too. Koufax is 89th in pitching WAR.

4 Cy Youngs overall. Including one at 37.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by cammb

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

Duh --- If you pitch extremely effectively until you are 40 or more (Spahn, Johnson & Grove), you will not be elected to the Hall of Fame at the age of 37. Sorry Tony, but your argument has a big hole in it.

Jeez, if there could only be one left-handed pitcher in Cooperstown, it would be a war zone. Jousting Net54 proponents of each pitcher could settle this definitively in less time than it takes to read this thread, but I bet none of you would volunteer to participate in a joust.

C'mon men.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Duh --- If you pitch extremely effectively until you are 40 or more (Spahn, Johnson & Grove), you will not be elected to the Hall of Fame at the age of 37. Sorry Tony, but your argument has a big hole in it.

Jeez, if there could only be one left-handed pitcher in Cooperstown, it would be a war zone. Jousting Net54 proponents of each pitcher could settle this definitively in less time than it takes to read this thread, but I bet none of you would volunteer to participate in a joust.

C'mon men.

Frank,

You're 100% right! (Good lord, did I actually just say that? )

This is a debate that cannot be won or lost as it is a totally subjective question that no statistics or other objective information can ever truly answer. Everyone has their own opinions and biases, and we're dealing with different people across different eras and times, playing under different rules and circumstances, along with a myriad of other different mitigating and contributing factors. People debating on here are taking many things out of context in their arguments, or forgetting that context even matters to begin with. Or they start reciting statistics, but pick and choose, or narrow and/or expand, the scope and/or time period of those chosen statistics to tailor them to produce the result they want it it to be. There has been no exact, specific definition of precisely what the word "best" or "greatest" means in the context of this hotly debated question. And until such an accord as to the precise definition is reached by all the partipants, there will never be the remotest possibility of arriving at a consensus answer to the question.

I personally don't know who the greatest left handed pitcher of all time (to date) is, but can certainly concur and agree with all the candidates that have been nominated in this thread as to at least being in the discussion. What I don't agree with is when people forget, ignore, or purposely disregard the context of situations, circumstances, and/or the who, what, and why of their topic of debate and use their narrow minded and focused thinking to insult and disparage those from other times, periods, and circumstances as just being useless, worthless, or just plain out of hand, not good enough or deserving of any consideration. To me, the treatment by some of Grove, and especially Spahn, rises to this disgusting level of what I was just referring to. And it may also bespeak to the type of person those that are guilty of doing such truly are. For if such people, without any real forethought or remorse, can be so dismissing of the likes of Grove and Spahn, how can they react to or think about the likes of you, me, or anyone else out there in the real world?

[Carter08]

Agree!

[brian1961]

Wow. Well written post, Bob. That was quite a broadside salvo of words, I must say. Thank you. -- Brian Powell

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cammb

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

Again, that makes absolutely no sense. Retiring early is not a benefit. Most great pitchers are still producing at 37, not giving their Cooperstown speech. You don’t think his team would rather have had Koufax pitching from 31-37 than sitting at home?

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees)

This is not correct. MLB enlarged the strike zone for, what a coincidence, Sandy's best four seasons:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Tabe

This is not correct. MLB enlarged the strike zone for, what a coincidence, Sandy's best four seasons:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone

I have a feeling facts aren’t going to get in the way of a false narrative.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Tabe

This is not correct. MLB enlarged the strike zone for, what a coincidence, Sandy's best four seasons:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone

Well that's a bit misleading isn't it? 8 of Koufax's 12 seasons he was subject to a smaller strike zone. And 4 of his 5 best K/9 seasons also were during that time with the smaller strike zone, NOT the larger strike zone as you state. What made Koufax so great in his later years wasn't his ability to strike people out, but rather his newfound ability to control the ball better and stop walking batters. His BB rate fell through the floor, but his strikeout rates were actually slightly better before he became the left arm of god. All of Lefty Grove's seasons had the same strike zone as Koufax's final 4 seasons.

Originally Posted by G1911

I have a feeling facts aren’t going to get in the way of a false narrative.

I see you're still pitching a tent in the Walmart parking lot. Do you need some water? Maybe a sandwich or two?

[earlywynnfan]

[QUOTE=Snowman;2164645


I see you're still pitching a tent in the Walmart parking lot. Do you need some water? Maybe a sandwich or two?[/QUOTE]

Great argument!

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Well that's a bit misleading isn't it? 8 of Koufax's 12 seasons he was subject to a smaller strike zone. And 4 of his 5 best K/9 seasons also were during that time with the smaller strike zone, NOT the larger strike zone as you state. What made Koufax so great in his later years wasn't his ability to strike people out, but rather his newfound ability to control the ball better and stop walking batters. His BB rate fell through the floor, but his strikeout rates were actually slightly better before he became the left arm of god. All of Lefty Grove's seasons had the same strike zone as Koufax's final 4 seasons.

You forgot to explain away the higher mound!

[mrreality68]

We Cannot argue against greatness

As all those discussed are Great just hard to determine the greatest lefty with the variations from era, mound heights, liveliness of the ball, dimensions of the park, etc.

So we are just nit picking to put our great at the top of the Greatness List and that is the fun of it.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I see you're still pitching a tent in the Walmart parking lot. Do you need some water? Maybe a sandwich or two?

This is what I’m talking about. I must be a homeless person because I can see you offer nothing but elementary fallacies. You are completely unable to engage with facts, form a coherent argument that makes any rational sense, or even simply not make appeals to your ego and self-professed but completely unsupported total authority.

[egri]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is what I’m talking about. I must be a homeless person because I can see you offer nothing but elementary fallacies. You are completely unable to engage with facts, form a coherent argument that makes any rational sense, or even simply not make appeals to your ego and self-professed but completely unsupported total authority.

I for one am shocked that a member who was banned from Blowout has done nothing but cause problems here.

[Touch'EmAll]

When analyzing Koufax, you just can't ignore the first 6 years of his career and only go by his later 6 year span. His first 6 years his W/L was 36-40 with ERA well over 4. - far, far away from the stuff of legendary greatness. During the first half of his career I wouldn't even pay money to see him pitch.

Now the second half of his career, yes, outstanding. Possibly even the best 6 year span of any pitcher ever.

Koufax career at home ERA 2.48, away 3.04
Grove career home ERA 3.04, away 3.05
Obviously, the home park benefited Koufax a whole lot.

One guy to pitch one game at the height of their career, Koufax might be your man. But overall value to a team for their career there is no way Koufax is the man.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by egri

I for one am shocked that a member who was banned from Blowout has done nothing but cause problems here.

I am also shocked. Shocked so many members are playing along with the silliness.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is what I’m talking about. I must be a homeless person because I can see you offer nothing but elementary fallacies. You are completely unable to engage with facts, form a coherent argument that makes any rational sense, or even simply not make appeals to your ego and self-professed but completely unsupported total authority.

Link?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Link?

https://www.letmegooglethat.com/?q=a...hority+fallacy

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Well that's a bit misleading isn't it? 8 of Koufax's 12 seasons he was subject to a smaller strike zone. And 4 of his 5 best K/9 seasons also were during that time with the smaller strike zone, NOT the larger strike zone as you state. What made Koufax so great in his later years wasn't his ability to strike people out, but rather his newfound ability to control the ball better and stop walking batters. His BB rate fell through the floor, but his strikeout rates were actually slightly better before he became the left arm of god. All of Lefty Grove's seasons had the same strike zone as Koufax's final 4 seasons.

Wait, his BB rate fell through the floor during the four years where the size of the strike zone was increased?!?! What a shock!

I didn't mention his K/9 rate in my post. There was nothing misleading at all about what I posted. You posted factually incorrect information. I corrected that and pointed out that the increased strike zone lined up with Sandy's four best years. Nothing misleading about that.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Wait, his BB rate fell through the floor during the four years where the size of the strike zone was increased?!?! What a shock!

I didn't mention his K/9 rate in my post. There was nothing misleading at all about what I posted. You posted factually incorrect information. I corrected that and pointed out that the increased strike zone lined up with Sandy's four best years. Nothing misleading about that.

No, you didn't mention his K/9 rate, but you should have. That's my point. You implied that he became better at striking batters out because they increased the strike zone in his final 4 years. But his K/9 rate actually went Down during that time, not up. The differences are explainable through some other engineered metrics, but I'll ignore that as I don't want to go chasing down another tangent.

The part of your post that is misleading is that you compared Lefty Grove with Sandy Koufax, then you said that Koufax benefited from them increasing his strike zone in his final 4 years. What you failed to mention is the fact that prior to them increasing his strike zone, they SHRANK it in 1950. When they expanded it in 1963, they reverted it back to where it was originally, back when Lefty Grove was pitching! Pretty important little detail you left out.

[Snowman]

As far as mound heights is concerned, yes that definitely needs to be accounted for. It's something I've never looked at in a predictive model though. It's never been a relevant factor for the problems I've needed to solve for. It will almost certainly make Koufax less god-like than his numbers would otherwise indicate. How much less god-like though? I don't know. It would be a fun question to answer. Maybe if I get some free time I'll calculate its effect.

[Tabe]

Now you're just making stuff up.

Originally Posted by Snowman

No, you didn't mention his K/9 rate, but you should have. That's my point. You implied that he became better at striking batters out because they increased the strike zone in his final 4 years.

I did no such thing. I said his four best years lined up with the increased strike zone. Didn't mention strikeouts at all. Or imply any connection to them.

Originally Posted by Snowman

The part of your post that is misleading is that you compared Lefty Grove with Sandy Koufax

No, I didn't. My post about the strike zone didn't mention Lefty Grove. You made the - again - factually incorrect assertion that Grove had a larger strike zone to work with than Sandy. I corrected that. Didn't mention Grove at all or make any comparison between the two.

Originally Posted by Snowman

What you failed to mention is the fact that prior to them increasing his strike zone, they SHRANK it in 1950. When they expanded it in 1963, they reverted it back to where it was originally, back when Lefty Grove was pitching! Pretty important little detail you left out.

It kinda goes without saying that, if they increased the size of the strike zone to be the same as Grove's, it was previously smaller, hence why I, you know, didn't say it.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Tabe

I corrected that and pointed out that the increased strike zone lined up with Sandy's four best years. Nothing misleading about that.

Sandy's best 4 years also lines up with expansion. Sandy was 14-2 vs. the Houston Colt .45s (1.90 ERA) and 17-2 vs. the Mets (1.44 ERA.) Those weak expansion clubs combined to give him 31 wins against just 4 losses. Take that away and Sandy is a lifetime 131-83 pitcher.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Did anyone else point out that it's not surprising that the OP picked a pitcher with a qualifier?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Sandy's best 4 years also lines up with expansion. Sandy was 14-2 vs. the Houston Colt .45s (1.90 ERA) and 17-2 vs. the Mets (1.44 ERA.) Those weak expansion clubs combined to give him 31 wins against just 4 losses. Take that away and Sandy is a lifetime 131-83 pitcher.

If I can prove to you that win/loss records mean absolutely jack shit, will you promise to stop posting them as your arguments for why player A is better or worse than player B?

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think Grove was probably better than Spahn. But I can't say that with confidence without spending a significant amount of time making adjustments to control for the level of skill of the league in general during their respective eras.

But even leaving league adjustments aside, pretending that the league was every bit as strong when Grove was pitching (which it most certainly was not), Koufax still outperformed Grove's numbers across the board in the postseason, and it's not close. The only statistic that Grove was better at was BB/9, but Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees). Regardless, Koufax put significantly fewer batters on base, was scored on half as much, and struck out batters almost twice as often. What's there to compare? Koufax was significantly better than Grove in the postseason (and Grove was great).

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Either way, postseason performance isn't all that interesting to me. The sample sizes are just too small for it to be as meaningful as most people want it to be.

If I'm reading a more recent post by member "Snowman" correctly, during 3 of Koufax' 4 WS years, he had the exact same strike zone as Grove.

But, if you use the "statistics in a vacuum" approach, which I was trying not to do in my original post, you are correct: Koufax has better stats.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

If I'm reading a more recent post by member "Snowman" correctly, during 3 of Koufax' 4 WS years, he had the exact same strike zone as Grove.

But, if you use the "statistics in a vacuum" approach, which I was trying not to do in my original post, you are correct: Koufax has better stats.

I would take either one of them as my greatest and I would love to be have been able to see either pitch in person

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

If I'm reading a more recent post by member "Snowman" correctly, during 3 of Koufax' 4 WS years, he had the exact same strike zone as Grove.

But, if you use the "statistics in a vacuum" approach, which I was trying not to do in my original post, you are correct: Koufax has better stats.

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

Yes, we realize you can’t and won’t put up a shred of evidence to support your assertions. Even the homeless guy realizes this.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

Come on man, you came up with something on another thread I thought was genuinely amazing and funny and gave you props. This is just common trolling. I could prove it but you would argue with me so I won’t? You know you’re trolling at that point.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

You claim to be superior to the rest of us because you say you are a statistician. Yet you continue to avoid providing any meaningful statistical analysis to support your view.

But we are too stupid to understand the complex statistical analysis you continue to fail to provide. You, sir, are a troll and an arrogant one at that. Arrogant to the point of being amusing... and far from the smartest person in this room.

All you want to do is dismiss things most managers, and general managers, and team owners value most: Wins and dependability over the long haul.

Managers ask their starting pitchers to do one thing - keep the game close, to give their team a good chance to win. I doubt many managers send their starter to the mound by saying, "See if you can get 10 strikeouts today..."