AL Wild Card Scenarios

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Jcosta19

I think the most overlooked part of all this craziness is that the AL East already has four 90 win teams, despite having to play each other.
Only time in divisional era that has ever happened was 1978 AL East (which had 7 teams) and a heck of a play in game.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

The Orioles helped out a lot.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

Wait 12 hours Peter and you will not have to figure anything.

Twelve is a smaller number than 16, so you should be able to handle it.

I'd give you the answer you want, but I'm busy prepping for the Packer game.

By the way Kershaw finished with 10 wins, so he is an elite starting pitcher.

[nineunder71]

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go Mariners !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go FISH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

There is also more than one possibility for a 2 team playoff for the second wild card.

And if NY and BOS both lose and TOR and SEA both win, there is a 1/16 chance of a four team playoff.

[Piratedogcardshows]

That's why baseball is the best sport. So intriguing on so many levels.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go FISH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

No, if each game has two possible outcomes, the total number of outcomes is 2 times 2 times 2 times 2. You multiply, not add.

You're also wrong about 3 team playoff scenarios. Suppose Seattle wins and the rest lose. Seattle, Boston, and NY are then tied. Same if only Toronto wins.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If Boston and NY both win, the rest is irrelevant, two team playoff. I think that happens 1 in 4 times. Plus, if all 4 teams lose, two team playoff. 1 in 16 odds of that. So 5 in 16 of a two team Boston NY playoff.

1 in 16 of a 4 way tie.

But now it gets more complicated. Suppose NY OR Boston wins but not both, and both Seattle and Toronto win. All four teams get in, one clear winner and three way tie for the second wild card spot, and you now need TWO play in games just to get to the wild card game LOL.

Or, if NY OR Boston wins but not both, and Seattle OR Toronto wins but not both, you have one clear winner and a two way tie for the second wild card spot.

Or, if NY and Boston both lose, and Seattle OR Toronto wins but not both, you have a three way tie for first.

This is insane.

[nineunder71]

Yes, you are right in the 3 way, I forgot the both lose, one win scenario

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No, if each game has two possible outcomes, the total number of outcomes is 2 times 2 times 2 times 2. You multiply, not add.

You're also wrong about 3 team playoff scenarios. Suppose Seattle wins and the rest lose. Seattle, Boston, and NY are then tied. Same if only Toronto wins.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Yes, you are right in the 3 way, I forgot the both lose, one win scenario

Enough to make one's head spin.

[Casey2296]

Giants win today and they break the single season win record for any SF/NY team beating John McGraws 1904 106 win season.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Giants win today and they break the single season win record for any SF/NY team beating John McGraws 1904 106 win season.

This is an American League thread, son.

[rugbymarine]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Giants win today and they break the single season win record for any SF/NY team beating John McGraws 1904 106 win season.

Every thread needs a card, right?

[nineunder71]

This is fun, but I’m getting confused, haha

I’m now counting 17 different combinations that could happen. That doesn’t seem like a logical # to me, but please tell me where I am mis-counting

All could win
All could lose
There are 4 combos were 1 team wins, the other 3 lose
There are 4 combos were 1 team loses, the other 3 win

That’s 10 different combos so far

I’m getting confused trying to add the 2 win 2 lose combos:
I’m counting 7 different ways that could happen as follows:

Tor & Sea Win
Tor & NY Win
Tor & Bos Win
Sea & NY Win
Sea & Bos Win
NY & Bos Win

HAHA, never mind, thats only six,

YES HEAD SPINNING

[frankbmd]

Two other possibilities exist for 2022.

1. Just have the AL East start the season with a four team wild card playoff and go directly into the wild games. Why play 162 games to get into a one game playoff.

or

2. Just have the AL East play their entire schedule as double headers. With a 324 game season the chances of wild card ties would be reduced, not eliminated but less likely.

I don't know how to resolve the inevitable law suit between Seattle and Baltimore though.