AL Wild Card Scenarios

[Peter_Spaeth]

How incredible is it that there could be a four way tie?
https://www.mlb.com/news/american-le...kers-explained

[SteveS]

As a Dodger fan, I'm looking at that scenario. In no way do I believe in or advocate throwing games, but if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they end up in a tie and a one-game extension of the season in San Francisco to decide the division winner. The loser of that game will host the Wild-Card game. The Dodgers' starting staff isn't in the best shape right now. Seems as though it would be better for them to just go straight to the Wild-Card and not have to play an extra game that wouldn't provide that great a benefit if they win, and puts a big strain on the pitching staff either way.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

As a Dodger fan, I'm looking at that scenario. In no way do I believe in or advocate throwing games, but if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they end up in a tie and a one-game extension of the season in San Francisco to decide the division winner. The loser of that game will host the Wild-Card game. The Dodgers' starting staff isn't in the best shape right now. Seems as though it would be better for them to just go straight to the Wild-Card and not have to play an extra game that wouldn't provide that great a benefit if they win, and puts a big strain on the pitching staff either way.

At least you aren't looking at having to pitch Kershaw with the season on the line.

[irv]

Go JAYS!

[bxb]

Regarding the AL, although it is fun to imagine the different wild card scenarios, it is likely irrelevant, as whoever emerges will likely be trounced by Tampa in the first round.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by bxb

Regarding the AL, although it is fun to imagine the different wild card scenarios, it is likely irrelevant, as whoever emerges will likely be trounced by Tampa in the first round.

Deuces wild indeed with a four way playoff.

Arozarena can't wait for his post-season grand slam.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by SteveS

As a Dodger fan, I'm looking at that scenario. In no way do I believe in or advocate throwing games, but if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they end up in a tie and a one-game extension of the season in San Francisco to decide the division winner. The loser of that game will host the Wild-Card game. The Dodgers' starting staff isn't in the best shape right now. Seems as though it would be better for them to just go straight to the Wild-Card and not have to play an extra game that wouldn't provide that great a benefit if they win, and puts a big strain on the pitching staff either way.

Ok, I am confused. How is a playoff game to advance to the NLDS and have home field through the playoffs worse than a wild card game against the Cardinals to advance to the NLDS and never getting home field?

[nineunder71]

Clearly, all this excitement has clouded some of our brains

Originally Posted by rats60

Ok, I am confused. How is a playoff game to advance to the NLDS and have home field through the playoffs worse than a wild card game against the Cardinals to advance to the NLDS and never getting home field?

[SteveS]

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

[nineunder71]

Your pessimistic thoughts are right on que!

The division win streak will end, and then Arenado, a SoCal boy, will ‘rake’ you guys right on back to Beverly Hills where you can enjoy a beautiful winter retreat….it really is nice there!

U heard it here first!!

Originally Posted by SteveS

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

How quickly things change in baseball. A week ago we would have said the Dodger starting rotation was invincible -- imagine, a 20 game winner as arguably only your fourth best pitcher behind two first ballot HOFers and a youngster on his way to superstardom.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Clearly, all this excitement has clouded some of our brains

No it is because what he says makes no sense. He wants to concede the division to his hated rivals to play the Cards in the WC. He should want to beat the Giants to make them play another game and get the winner in LA. Aren't the Dodgers defending champions with 105 wins going into the last game? He acts like they are lucky to have a winning record.

I guess it doesn't matter. The Padres are tanking to the Giants just like 1971. The Dodgers hate the Giants, but everyone else in the Division hates the Dodgers.

[SteveS]

Originally Posted by rats60

No it is because what he says makes no sense. He wants to concede the division to his hated rivals to play the Cards in the WC. He should want to beat the Giants to make them play another game and get the winner in LA. Aren't the Dodgers defending champions with 105 wins going into the last game? He acts like they are lucky to have a winning record.

I guess it doesn't matter. The Padres are tanking to the Giants just like 1971. The Dodgers hate the Giants, but everyone else in the Division hates the Dodgers.

It's pretty obvious that I'd want the Dodgers to beat the Giants. But you made my point for me in your second paragraph. I don't think anybody who follows baseball thought that the Padres would give it their all today. It was pretty clear that the Giants were going to win the division no matter what the Dodgers did. So why not save Buehler, who has been on a roll recently, for Wednesday? Scherzer is obviously no slouch, but he has pitched horribly lately and is mediocre in the postseason (7-5).

As for Urias, I'd award the CY to his 20-3/2.96 over any of the other contenders by a mile.

[Jcosta19]

I think the most overlooked part of all this craziness is that the AL East already has four 90 win teams, despite having to play each other.
Only time in divisional era that has ever happened was 1978 AL East (which had 7 teams) and a heck of a play in game.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Jcosta19

I think the most overlooked part of all this craziness is that the AL East already has four 90 win teams, despite having to play each other.
Only time in divisional era that has ever happened was 1978 AL East (which had 7 teams) and a heck of a play in game.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

The Orioles helped out a lot.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

Wait 12 hours Peter and you will not have to figure anything.

Twelve is a smaller number than 16, so you should be able to handle it.

I'd give you the answer you want, but I'm busy prepping for the Packer game.

By the way Kershaw finished with 10 wins, so he is an elite starting pitcher.

[nineunder71]

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go Mariners !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go FISH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

There is also more than one possibility for a 2 team playoff for the second wild card.

And if NY and BOS both lose and TOR and SEA both win, there is a 1/16 chance of a four team playoff.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go FISH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

No, if each game has two possible outcomes, the total number of outcomes is 2 times 2 times 2 times 2. You multiply, not add.

You're also wrong about 3 team playoff scenarios. Suppose Seattle wins and the rest lose. Seattle, Boston, and NY are then tied. Same if only Toronto wins.