PSA Economy – Ground Truth

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by conor912

The days of $10 PSA grades are gone. Caput. Maybe a $20/1 year turnaround….maybe.

That's basically where they were when they shut down for value specials, so this makes sense. Even before that (late 2019) it was $12 per for value/specials.

[Republicaninmass]

Or "varies by demand"



Told me likley a year...the very last submissions to be processed

[Johnny630]

I would not be surprised if the lowest PSA service level will be $50 per card by the middle/end of next year.

It is my opinion that Mr. Turner has this company going in the right direction for the collector.

[Snowman]

I don't believe that long-time bulk submitters have some sort of "back door" access to lower tiered bulk grading services. That news would leak pretty quickly and wouldn't be too difficult to track down. It would also be a huge PR blow to PSA's brand if some submitters were still allowed to submit while others weren't. I think the likelihood of this currently happening is extremely low. It just wouldn't be in PSA's best interest.

As far as where all these cards are coming from, I think some people here are grossly underestimating the amount of recent growth this hobby has experienced. Collectors within the vintage community are probably a bit sheltered from seeing just how expansive that growth is unless they've made it a point to research and quantify it in some way. Obviously, vintage has grown a lot as well, but it's a fraction of the growth that the modern side of the hobby has seen over the past few years.

As far as when they'll get back to offering lower tiers and cheaper prices, I wouldn't hold my breath. There's still a strong demand at $150 per card. Sure, $100 per card is coming, and I suppose it could be Oct 1st, but I wouldn't bet on it, although I also definitely wouldn't bet on it being later than Jan 2022. But $50 per card pricing is probably still quite a ways out. They still have a sizeable backlog to get through, and PSA knows the floodgates would open back up even at $50 per card. My guess is we'll see them milk this $150 service for at least a couple more months, then reopen a $100 tier sometime in Q4 or on Jan 1st or something like that. Then they'll milk those $100 submissions for at least a few months while they continue to chip away at the backlog, then they'll reopen a $50 tier or something in that neighborhood around the summer of 2022. I think they'll probably offer lower tiers again after they get caught up on the backlog, but it's going to look very different than it does right now. I would guess that ultra-modern bulk value tiers could become a thing of the past with PSA. If you have an ultra-modern card that you want graded, you'll have to pony up the $50 service level or something like that. My guess would be that the bulk value tiers with the lowest pricing will be offered through the quarterly specials, and will be aimed primarily at set collectors. So Q1 2023 might be something like 1950s baseball, and Q2 might be pre-war, and Q3 might be 1980s basketball & 1970s football, stuff like that. I just don't see them reopening bulk value submissions with no restrictions again unless the hobby completely face plants or they find a way to pentuple their current workflow.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I don't believe that long-time bulk submitters have some sort of "back door" access to lower tiered bulk grading services. That news would leak pretty quickly and wouldn't be too difficult to track down. It would also be a huge PR blow to PSA's brand if some submitters were still allowed to submit while others weren't. I think the likelihood of this currently happening is extremely low. It just wouldn't be in PSA's best interest.

As far as where all these cards are coming from, I think some people here are grossly underestimating the amount of recent growth this hobby has experienced. Collectors within the vintage community are probably a bit sheltered from seeing just how expansive that growth is unless they've made it a point to research and quantify it in some way. Obviously, vintage has grown a lot as well, but it's a fraction of the growth that the modern side of the hobby has seen over the past few years.

As far as when they'll get back to offering lower tiers and cheaper prices, I wouldn't hold my breath. There's still a strong demand at $150 per card. Sure, $100 per card is coming, and I suppose it could be Oct 1st, but I wouldn't bet on it, although I also definitely wouldn't bet on it being later than Jan 2022. But $50 per card pricing is probably still quite a ways out. They still have a sizeable backlog to get through, and PSA knows the floodgates would open back up even at $50 per card. My guess is we'll see them milk this $150 service for at least a couple more months, then reopen a $100 tier sometime in Q4 or on Jan 1st or something like that. Then they'll milk those $100 submissions for at least a few months while they continue to chip away at the backlog, then they'll reopen a $50 tier or something in that neighborhood around the summer of 2022. I think they'll probably offer lower tiers again after they get caught up on the backlog, but it's going to look very different than it does right now. I would guess that ultra-modern bulk value tiers could become a thing of the past with PSA. If you have an ultra-modern card that you want graded, you'll have to pony up the $50 service level or something like that. My guess would be that the bulk value tiers with the lowest pricing will be offered through the quarterly specials, and will be aimed primarily at set collectors. So Q1 2023 might be something like 1950s baseball, and Q2 might be pre-war, and Q3 might be 1980s basketball & 1970s football, stuff like that. I just don't see them reopening bulk value submissions with no restrictions again unless the hobby completely face plants or they find a way to pentuple their current workflow.

Spot On Snowman I agree with this pretty much to a Tee, this where I see things going. I understand it, like it and except it, it's reality

[abothebear]

All in all, this seems like an outright disaster for a lot of collectors. I am a low budget collector. I get a new card or two once every couple of months, usually under $10. I know the business side of the hobby doesn't need the likes of me, so I'm not clamoring for some unrealistic reversal for my sake. But it seems to me the grading craze is going to affect everybody. If a PSA case is being valued at $100 - $150, any card for sale in a PSA case should be expected to go for market value of the card plus market value of the case. That is a significant premium on any card, but disastrous for cards under $300. The raw market will certainly be getting an influx of collectors abandoning the graded game - another blow to low budget collectors like myself. I suppose we are stuck waiting it out, hoping a correction of some kind happens sooner or later. Eight years ago I could get almost anything I wanted at a reasonable price (I only lacked the money). Now if I had the money I don't know if I could justify spending it knowing its all inflated 1990-style, except worse because it is shifted up $100 because of the case and the related consequences for the raw market.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by abothebear

All in all, this seems like an outright disaster for a lot of collectors. I am a low budget collector. I get a new card or two once every couple of months, usually under $10. I know the business side of the hobby doesn't need the likes of me, so I'm not clamoring for some unrealistic reversal for my sake. But it seems to me the grading craze is going to affect everybody. If a PSA case is being valued at $100 - $150, any card for sale in a PSA case should be expected to go for market value of the card plus market value of the case. That is a significant premium on any card, but disastrous for cards under $300. The raw market will certainly be getting an influx of collectors abandoning the graded game - another blow to low budget collectors like myself. I suppose we are stuck waiting it out, hoping a correction of some kind happens sooner or later. Eight years ago I could get almost anything I wanted at a reasonable price (I only lacked the money). Now if I had the money I don't know if I could justify spending it knowing its all inflated 1990-style, except worse because it is shifted up $100 because of the case and the related consequences for the raw market.

You say this as if there aren't any other options for sending your cards to. SGC is crushing it right now. CSG offers super cheap grading with longer waits, but at least you can submit to them. I've been sending a lot of my stuff to SGC though lately.

[BobbyStrawberry]

I think it all depends what the response is as they open up lower priced tiers. I think $100 or even $75 are not far off; when it gets to $50 and below, that's when we might see them again flooded with submissions containing hundreds of 2020 Panini base cards and the like.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I don't believe that long-time bulk submitters have some sort of "back door" access to lower tiered bulk grading services. That news would leak pretty quickly and wouldn't be too difficult to track down. It would also be a huge PR blow to PSA's brand if some submitters were still allowed to submit while others weren't. I think the likelihood of this currently happening is extremely low. It just wouldn't be in PSA's best interest.

Wow once again you could not be more wrong. PSA is still pumping out subs in a timely manner and at discounted rates for at least a few of the auction houses. Lots of freshly graded items that these AHs have not been paying $300 per card to have graded. They are also still taking care of their higher volume submitters.

PSA shakes off every bad PR blow they have created for themselves.

[53toppscollector]

A couple more random thoughts:

* I do think PSA gives slightly discounted rates to bulk/group submitters. I don't think its a drastic discount, but I do think they get a discounted rate, or at least they did back when Economy was open

* If PSA doesn't eventually offer any kind of bulk/value pricing, ie, their lowest service level settles around $50-75, I think it could create an interesting dynamic in the hobby. SGC may become the go-to TPG for base cards, because while you aren't going to pay $75 to grade a base card, you might pay $30, especially if your game is based on volume and turning/burning quickly. So PSA could solidify everything above the base tier, where if you have a card that is worth $150+, you will opt to send to PSA at the $50-75 level. Anything under $100, you will send to SGC.

* This could create obvious ripple effects, because if SGC gets flooded with cards, which could happen if PSA doesn't open a sub-$75 service level in the next year, then you are paying $30 and looking at 3+ month turnaround times because of backlog.

* I know that money changes everything, but Nat Turner has talked a good game about the importance of the set registry to him and to PSA. Their registry is miles ahead of any other TPG. But at $50 per card, you are basically killing the set registry. Grading $2 commons or junk wax inserts for $50 just doesn't make sense at all. And I can't imagine that even the most competitive set registry participants, even if they have the money to burn, will be eager to pay $50 per card to grade hundreds of commons. Given where we are TODAY, it seems impossible to imagine a $10 service level ever coming back. I'm just not sure how the registry survives without it

* This isn't breaking news or anything, just something I thought of this morning, but it still blows my mind that PSA has established the dominance in the hobby that they have considering that a.) the first card they ever graded was trimmed and they didn't know it and b.) they still command such a huge premium over other TPGs despite not offering subgrades

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I used to get a discounted rate vs the general public. That ended as soon as Nat took over. I'm not a major player, so perhaps there were exceptions, all I know is I'm not one of them.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

What specifically about CSG has disappointed you?

I've been disappointed in their grading standards. Especially with regard to centering. I've seen so many cards that are perfectly centered on the front and have 48/52 L/R on the back get 9s as sub grades for centering. That's just ridiculous. And cards that are 46/54 getting 8s. I've also seen vintage cards that are clearly overgraded. Cards with creases getting 5s and even a 6 in one case. Gem Mint grades on modern cards are too tough with them. I've also been disappointed in their pricing strategy, wait times, and communication. Their marketing is almost non-existent. I also think they really dropped the ball with their flip. It's like they didn't ask any of their potential customer base whether or not they liked the flips. Those flips are almost universally hated throughout the hobby. That's such an easy problem to avoid, and they completely dropped the ball on it. It's also an important decision to get right. All they had to do was survey some collectors and they would have known to change it. I had a lot of high hopes for them at the beginning of the year. Being backed by CCG is a huge leg up on the competition from other new grading companies. But watching their slabs get passed over by people who prefer cards in HGA slabs? Ouch. That's extremely disappointing. HGA is just a complete clusterfuck of a grading company. If you're losing to them, you're doing something wrong.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Wow once again you could not be more wrong. PSA is still pumping out subs in a timely manner and at discounted rates for at least a few of the auction houses. Lots of freshly graded items that these AHs have not been paying $300 per card to have graded. They are also still taking care of their higher volume submitters.

PSA shakes off every bad PR blow they have created for themselves.

I'm happy to learn when I'm wrong. If you have evidence of your claim, feel free to share it. However, I question whether or not you read my claim carefully enough. Note, I said, "I don't believe that long-time bulk submitters have some sort of "back door" access to lower tiered bulk grading services." It wouldn't surprise me to learn that large submitters who have had arrangements for bulk submissions in place with PSA for many years are still receiving a discount on services that are currently open. What I am contesting is that I don't believe they have access to the lower-tiered bulk services which have been shut down (e.g., I don't think any individual or company, regardless of their history with PSA, is currently able to submit bulk modern orders for grading). If you have evidence to the contrary, by all means, share it. But I'd wager good money that you've been misinformed if you believe that.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I've been disappointed in their grading standards. Especially with regard to centering. I've seen so many cards that are perfectly centered on the front and have 48/52 L/R on the back get 9s as sub grades for centering. That's just ridiculous. And cards that are 46/54 getting 8s. I've also seen vintage cards that are clearly overgraded. Cards with creases getting 5s and even a 6 in one case. Gem Mint grades on modern cards are too tough with them. I've also been disappointed in their pricing strategy, wait times, and communication. Their marketing is almost non-existent. I also think they really dropped the ball with their flip. It's like they didn't ask any of their potential customer base whether or not they liked the flips. Those flips are almost universally hated throughout the hobby. That's such an easy problem to avoid, and they completely dropped the ball on it. It's also an important decision to get right. All they had to do was survey some collectors and they would have known to change it. I had a lot of high hopes for them at the beginning of the year. Being backed by CCG is a huge leg up on the competition from other new grading companies. But watching their slabs get passed over by people who prefer cards in HGA slabs? Ouch. That's extremely disappointing. HGA is just a complete clusterfuck of a grading company. If you're losing to them, you're doing something wrong.

I appreciate the reply and agree with most of what you wrote. I truly don't get the appeal of HGA. I am constantly seeing evidence of their incompetence, and their slabs look like something a high school student made in shop class.