Why do many put so much emphasis on PAST sales??

[Eric72]

Don't forget the often-cited (but completely irrelevant) data point:

"...but I have XXX into it...

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Eric72

Don't forget the often-cited (but completely irrelevant) data point:

"...but I have XXX into it...

That response is not irrelevant to the seller, so it is not totally irrelevant, just irrelevant to you as a buyer.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by BobC

That response is not irrelevant to the seller, so it is not totally irrelevant, just irrelevant to you as a buyer.

I suppose you're correct about that. Pardon me for being momentarily self-centered there.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Eric72

I suppose you're correct about that. Pardon me for being momentarily self-centered there.

LOL

Wasn't picking on you, just have to remember there two sides, and neither is wrong.

[hcv123]

As a number have said - my opinion is past "public" sales (lacking all the private sales data which borders on impossible to accurately collect and track!) are 1 relevant piece of information to consider. More relevant when there are more sales in a recent shorter block of time and of cards of equivalent eye appeal (sometimes difficult to tell from digital pics). Supply/demand/availability? Many try to boil pricing down to a science and it is so far from it - much more art. At the end of the day - buy what you like and pay what you like as long as you have a seller willing to sell it to you!

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by BobC

LOL

Wasn't picking on you, just have to remember there two sides, and neither is wrong.

[Snowman]

As someone who makes predictions using data and mathematics for a living, I always try to think about pricing cards (both as a buyer and as a seller) through that lens by asking myself 'what would I predict the next one of these to sell for?' If you are only considering one data point, then past sales are without question, the best predictor of future sales prices, so it makes for a great starting point. However, it is certainly not the only factor one should consider. If it's a relatively rare card that sells infrequently, then it gets much more complicated, whereas something like a PSA 9 modern card that sells with high frequency doesn't really need any data points beyond what the last handful of them sold for on average. But if you're looking at a card that only sells once or twice per year, then you would benefit greatly from analyzing other related market factors that are highly correlated with what you are selling (how have other cards in that same set moved since your card was last sold? or how has the market for the player you're selling moved since the last time this card was sold? or how has the same card moved in other grades?). Other aspects that are especially relevant with vintage obviously, might be things like eye-appeal or when the card was graded (is it an old PSA label from the days when modern 8s got 10s and modern 6s got 8s?, etc.) Obviously, you can make it as complicated as you want, but if you start with past sales prices and then make market adjustments from there, you'll be pretty close to how the broader market values that card and what it's most likely to sell for in a future sale.

[HercDriver]

Yep...that's my favorite line on this board. Oh, so you made a bad purchase and you want me to bail you out? What if you had $500 into it, and were selling it for $1000? Would you then take $550, since that's all you had into it? What you paid is irrelevant to the current value. Just like a stock on the NYSE.

Originally Posted by Eric72

Don't forget the often-cited (but completely irrelevant) data point:

"...but I have XXX into it...

[RCMcKenzie]

I agree with the op. I don't look at past sales. I keep bidding until the other guy stops. Usually, I'm the other guy that stops. I think I have not accepted the inflation, like when my aunt used to send me $5 for my birthday, because to her, $5 was a lot of money.

[icollectDCsports]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I agree with the op. I don't look at past sales. I keep bidding until the other guy stops. Usually, I'm the other guy that stops. I think I have not accepted the inflation, like when my aunt used to send me $5 for my birthday, because to her, $5 was a lot of money.

But isn't your bidding informed by the price you think you'd need to pay to purchase another similar item? And what would that be based upon, if not some sense of what other such items typically cost. Of course, if it's hard to find a comparable item or if sales are sporadic and not recent, then there's less relevant info available, but the greater the number of recent sales of comparable items there are, the more you'd want to know and benefit from that info.

[bbcard1]

You know, ya gotta use something. I collect a lot of different stuff and it's funny to watch people who are trying to buy someone who is hot like Vlad or Soto complaining that people are not selling at month old comps.

[Jewish-collector]

A vintage baseball card is like a boat. You're only happy when you buy it and when you sell it.

[Redleg25]

As I mentioned in the open, I can see using past sale as a VERY loose guide, but too many consider previous sales the gospel. One, those deals are gone. Can't buy shares of Microsoft for $100 a piece anymore. Two, no two vintage cards are the same. Here's an example: first 54 Mick is mine. No underlying issues, back as clean as the front. Second is another PSA 1. Hey, both are PSA 1 so accurate comps!🙂

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I agree with the op. I don't look at past sales. I keep bidding until the other guy stops. Usually, I'm the other guy that stops. I think I have not accepted the inflation, like when my aunt used to send me $5 for my birthday, because to her, $5 was a lot of money.

With all those sweet fivers around from your aunt, you should be able to bid higher than the other guy, no?

[Mike D.]

The market is imperfect. 2005 Topps U&H Verlander. Last sale was for $49. Prices on eBay BIN $51-115.

I got one via auction late last night for $20.50. Does that mean it’s worth 50% less (or more) than everyone thinks? Did I just get a good deal? Both? Neither?

[jefferyepayne]

I subscribe to VCP and use it as a loose guide for a card's trend and price. But as many other have said, it is only one data point in a sea of other considerations.

One thing I do do is take out ALL BIN prices in VCP and ALL sales from a certain large seller as well. I personally don't believe much of that data with all the shenanigan's that go on in our hobby.

Obviously a conservative approach but it has worked well for me. I think I suggested to VCP at some point that they allow you to 'ignore' particular sales when looking at their pricing data but don't think this functionality exists right now. So I do it by hand. I'm hoping some day this feature appears (hint, hint).

jeff

[kmac32]

I don’t know about imphasis but I do know about emphasis. It gives you a basic guideline on where to start on price. If something is worth a certain value and a seller wants twice what it is worth then it gives a buyer an idea what to offer. Same is true on the opposite side where a buyer offers half of what a card is worth then negotiations can proceed from there. Both sides need to be reasonable if a deal is to be made.

It always gets me when a seller has a card but wants a buyer to throw out a price without the buyer having any idea where the seller is at. If there is really interest in selling a card, at least shoot back a realistic offer. The game of guess the price is really not fun or fair to anyone.

My two cents

Kmac