What's up with these t206 sold auction prices ???

[Tao_Moko]

If you don’t mind..... how old are u?[/QUOTE]

"u"? I have a twelve year old that does that.

I agree that pops hold value for estimating, but they are highly inaccurate. I have an 880 count box slammed full of slips and many very scarce ones at that. For cards that are plentiful, pops work. For true scarcities, not so much.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Tao_Moko

I agree that pops hold value for estimating, but they are highly inaccurate. I have an 880 count box slammed full of slips and many very scarce ones at that. For cards that are plentiful, pops work. For true scarcities, not so much.

This. It's pretty good for estimating relative populations, especially in more available cards where the sample size lends itself to a better proportional accuracy, to say X is more difficult than Y. When people use POP to say "there are only 3 known!" of a card they have because there are 3 in the pop report, I find that ridiculous; it is almost never true. Competitive people are driven to grading, and more likely to talk about their scarcities in forums, there are usually many more 'in the active hobby' not represented here. The extant population is almost always much higher than the POP report, there are many collections with a significant amount of tough material that simply won't hit the POP's until their owners die, if then.

There are a number of cards that most of the graded population is actually sitting in one of my shoe boxes cracked out. Crack outs, regrades and crossovers heighten the inaccuracy.

[G1911]

Also, I have a poor Atz with a Tolstoi back with a total POP of 5, less than the OM Ames. If anyone would like to pay me half of the Ames price for it because of its POP, I'm a seller.

[nineunder71]

James,
Great work! I find it easy to make logical assumptions using the data in which you have extracted from the pop reports. This is exactly how I go about researching all 524, or any subset within. Nope, its not perfect, but very useful. Which leads me to

Luke,
U have amazing insight and I sure wish I could articulate my words as well as u do. Thanks for the efforts to always educate the masses with excellent tid bits like “card target” and “VCP”. Yes, many tools available to us

Ryan,
Thanks for starting the thread. Your inquisitive nature will help you greatly as you continue to have fun, learn and grow within this awesome hobby. As you can see, differing opinions abound. Best of Luck and feel free to reach out with any questions, anytime. I’ll send you a PM with a bit more insight to ponder

Y’all’s Truly,

Colton

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by G1911

Also, I have a poor Atz with a Tolstoi back with a total POP of 5, less than the OM Ames. If anyone would like to pay me half of the Ames price for it because of its POP, I'm a seller.

It's really hard to gauge some of the tougher combos when it comes to prices but it's more than just the PSA pops that affect the prices SGC pops and past sales are a big factor too. Personally I think past sales affect the price as much or more most times.

The Ames Old Mill portrait has 6 in the PSA pop report but 0 in SGC's pop report. The previous most recent recorded sale was a PSA 8 in September 2018 and before that one you have to go back to November 2011 so you only have two recorded sales of that combo in 10 years.

The Atz Tolstoi is a tough combo but in my opinion not as tough as the Ames Old Mill. The Tolstoi's are one of the backs I keep track of and Atz has a total pop of 9 which ranks him tied for #98-#108 out of 253 in scarcity.

Here's the Atz I have I don't thin I could get anywhere near 1/2 the price of the Ames for it but I wouldn't sell it for that right now if I could.

img850.jpg

[53toppscollector]

I think it also really depends what someone is searching/hunting for that drives prices. All you need for a massive hammer price is 2 people fighting over something scarce.

In that same auction with the really high Ames/Devlin Old Mill prices, I grabbed a Krause Old Mill for my run, and I paid $67 for it. Ames/Devlin were much more in demand and more rare, and the pop on my Krause was higher than the median Old Mill back, but not that much higher.

I just picked up Charlie Rhodes Tolstoi in an SGC 2 holder. I paid $150 for it on open bid, no other interest in it. SGC pop of 5, PSA pop of 10, so 15 total. Time and place feels like as big a factor as anything else.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Pat R

It's really hard to gauge some of the tougher combos when it comes to prices but it's more than just the PSA pops that affect the prices SGC pops and past sales are a big factor too. Personally I think past sales affect the price as much or more most times.

The Ames Old Mill portrait has 6 in the PSA pop report but 0 in SGC's pop report. The previous most recent recorded sale was a PSA 8 in September 2018 and before that one you have to go back to November 2011 so you only have two recorded sales of that combo in 10 years.

The Atz Tolstoi is a tough combo but in my opinion not as tough as the Ames Old Mill. The Tolstoi's are one of the backs I keep track of and Atz has a total pop of 9 which ranks him tied for #98-#108 out of 253 in scarcity.

Here's the Atz I have I don't thin I could get anywhere near 1/2 the price of the Ames for it but I wouldn't sell it for that right now if I could.

Attachment 478896

Since it apparently wasn't clear, my post is dripping with sarcasm and is in jest to make precisely the point that the PSA POP report ain't everything.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by G1911

Since it apparently wasn't clear, my post is dripping with sarcasm and is in jest to make precisely the point that the PSA POP report ain't everything.

Yes I got the sarcasm but your total pop on the Atz was off by 44% so it kind of waters down some of the sarcasm.

[nineunder71]

Pat,

Thanks for all you do, your research is always amazing!

To have the Tolstoi sub-set sequenced in order of scarcity is WoW! I think I might spend the rest of my spare time this week doing this with the Cycle 350s, I love it, what an excellent tool for comparison. Currently, I only have the ones I need broken down like this.

It’s cool to see what “most” others are doing and thinking on this topic. And its cool to see people reach out and work to help the OP, who originally made an honest inquiry to further his knowledge.

Thanks Again

12 year old’s Vocab‘u’lary = Super Cool
Dripping Sarcasm = Not Super Cool

Waters down the dripping sarcasm, now that is funny. Good one, Pat