T206 Honus Wagner SGC 3 What is the Over/Under

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

slow but steady it goes up.

$3.2 million dollars (before buyers premium) a little while ago

Interesting but does this or does this nor effect the rest of the market.

I mean we know the prices have spiked especially on high end items.

What happens to the rest of the market. Will it stay at these new prices or down tick.

Hard to tell......a lot of dark money through crypto coming in on these big items.

I think long run this card will appreciate.

The rest of Vintage Ruth, Cobb, Mantle, and Jackie Centered In 6’s and above are Rock Stars.

I think lower grade will come down a lot take for examples 33 Ruth’s grades 1-5’s were nuts from Jan-April in those grades they have come back considerably.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't think the price of an ultra elite card like this affects the overall market one way or the other.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't think the price of an ultra elite card like this affects the overall market one way or the other.

I think there is some effect. I think Honus Wagner cards in general have gone up bc of the popularity of this specific Wagner, especially ones with this pose- like tip top, e90-2, w600, e103, etc. I also think that t206 in general gets a bit of a bump. The card is a t206 Honus Wagner card - that rising tide should/could/is lift all Wagner items and t206 in general. As far as the market on-whole, anytime an elite card sells and gets press, it draws attention to cards, which ultimately impacts the entire hobby in general. I don’t know that it directly makes a 1983 Tony Gwynn more valuable, but it may cause a 40 something to pull out that shoebox and get back into collecting, etc….

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think there is some effect. I think Honus Wagner cards in general have gone up bc of the popularity of this specific Wagner, especially ones with this pose- like tip top, e90-2, w600, e103, etc. I also think that t206 in general gets a bit of a bump. The card is a t206 Honus Wagner card - that rising tide should/could/is lift all Wagner items and t206 in general. As far as the market on-whole, anytime an elite card sells and gets press, it draws attention to cards, which ultimately impacts the entire hobby in general. I don’t know that it directly makes a 1983 Tony Gwynn more valuable, but it may cause a 40 something to pull out that shoebox and get back into collecting, etc….

Who knows of course, but my belief is that only a very tiny fraction of collectors are in a position to compete for this card, that it will sell for what it sells for reasons having little or nothing to do with the overall market, and that the rest of us aren't going to be influenced one way or the other by what it sells for. I don't buy the rising tide theory. Did the off the charts sale of the recent Jordan 10 affect anything? I doubt it. And this card of course is far far rarer. Just a sui generis sale to me.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who knows of course, but my belief is that only a very tiny fraction of collectors are in a position to compete for this card, that it will sell for what it sells for reasons having little or nothing to do with the overall market, and that the rest of us aren't going to be influenced one way or the other by what it sells for. I don't buy the rising tide theory. Did the off the charts sale of the recent Jordan 10 affect anything? I doubt it. And this card of course is far far rarer. Just a sui generis sale to me.

I don't think the final selling price will influence the average collector's spending habits. Will it move the needle on some Wagner issues...possible but I did not really see much ripple effect on the previous Wagner sales that took place earlier this year. I do think it gives elite collectors more confidence in the market but not sure the impact is the same on the rest.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I don't think the final selling price will influence the average collector's spending habits. Will it move the needle on some Wagner issues...possible but I did not really see much ripple effect on the previous Wagner sales that took place earlier this year. I do think it gives elite collectors more confidence in the market but not sure the impact is the same on the rest.

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

It sounds good but I disagree, I think these elite cards are their own thing and I've seen no evidence of any significant trickle down when big prices are reported for rare/elite cards.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion and reasoning but, personally, I have not seen 2-4 on your list when a card like this Wagner is sold. Memory Lane just sold several elite cards that made headlines everywhere. I saw no jump in prices, etc as you have described. The excitement, imo, is limited to the excitement of collectors who can buy dozens of 50K plus cards or even as many 1 million dollar cards as they want. Prices and demand on those cards rise but not the rest of the market.