Future of cards shows

[Tony Gordon]

I have been running a monthly show in Milwaukee for the past seven years, 2021 has been my best year to date. Trends I have observed lately: modern is currently much more popular than vintage. I have more Pokemon dealers at my show than ever before. In total, there are more dealers than ever before. My wait list for dealer tables reached a high point a few months ago of 70 people. Spending and price hikes were crazy earlier in the year but it appears both spending and prices are leveling off. My show, for one, is very healthy and I expect good things in the future. My next show at the Salvation Army Community Center, 8853 S. Howell, in Oak Creek, WI (south suburb of Milwaukee) is July 3. Come check it out if you are in the area!

[Johnny630]

I think a lot depends on the United States economic conditions, if inflation is only transitory like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says then we should be OK. I have a feeling it’s going to be a little more rough than transitory.

[Hankphenom]

Based on what I saw and heard at the Philly show, I think this year is going to be gangbusters. The National will be crazy, I think.

[packs]

Primed for a collapse. My predication is that shows will be heavily attended in the immediate short-term, which will likely tempt organizers to lease larger and larger spaces until people lose interest, which they inevitably will because most of the money in the hobby is not coming from collectors. At that point promoters will have overextended themselves and rather than a boom we are likely going to see a bust that will result in even less shows than there typically are.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by packs

Primed for a collapse. My predication is that shows will be heavily attended in the immediate short-term, which will likely tempt organizers to lease larger and larger spaces until people lose interest, which they inevitably will because most of the money in the hobby is not coming from collectors. At that point promoters will have overextended themselves and rather than a boom we are likely going to see a bust that will result in even less shows than there typically are.

You Made a Key Point Here, “most of the money in the Hobby is not coming from the collectors”.

That Statement is 100% Truth.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by packs

most of the money in the hobby is not coming from collectors.

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

Yes I don’t know how many times I’ve heard them say dude I’m going to make so much money off this card I can’t believe I got this!!

Collect haha they collect money

Not all but I’m being series.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

Maybe one total collector. I was growing up in the 90s. Do you know how many of my friends collected Pokemon cards? Nearly all of them. Do you know how many collected a single card after the initial fad? None of them.

[bbcard1]

I sold my advertising company right before COVID and had intended to get back in to show promotion. I was pretty successful back in the day, did a lot with CSA and I understand the marketing part pretty well.

I think there is a great opportunity for the 30-50 table local/regional show with free or inexpensive autograph guests, much like the 80s and 90s. This has been made viable by the increasing fees of eBay and a general uptick in interest. I am planning on promoting a few shows in 2022. We'll see if I'm right.

[Snapolit1]

A tremendous amount of "energy" in the hobby, for lack of a better word, is from 20-30 year olds who are into case breaking. The price points for some of these new high end cases (basketball and football particularly) are like $7000 - $10,000. Younger people speculating that they will get the next PSA 9 Zion or Jasson Dominquez card that will fetch $200,000. They are also the ones who have swamped PSA. Including with Pokemon and Magic cards. Once they realize that shows are not an effective way of feeding their gambling jones, they will move on.

I've been fascinated with the breaking scene for a while and have dipped my toe in it a bit. It's amazing to me when I see a personal break of some new football release where some dude has paid $6,000 for a box of ten cards. The odds of making a profit on that box is minuscule. But to each his own. I just shutter to think whose dropping $6,000 to take a shot like that. If I paid $6,000 and ended up with $350 in cards I would likely be in a pretty bad mood for a while.

[Hankphenom]

OK, I give in, you guys seem very sure of yourselves. This is all musical chairs and absolutely nobody is actually collecting any of it, is that right? I don't even know what Pokemon is, but I guess it's made a comeback for a while, anyway. At least these folks are learning how to be good American entrepreneurs--cash in, make a quick buck, and the devil to the hindmost!

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by packs

Maybe one total collector. I was growing up in the 90s. Do you know how many of my friends collected Pokemon cards? Nearly all of them. Do you know how many collected a single card after the initial fad? None of them.

Just curious, why were they buying them in the first place? Because their friends were? Looking to make a quick buck? So there was no inherent appeal to these things at all? Sorry, but it sounds like a generation of sheep to me, that's really depressing.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by packs

...I was growing up in the 90s...

I find that truly surprising, no offense intended.

Your Net54 persona strikes me as more of a "get off my lawn" retiree than someone in their 40s.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

I agree with this 100% but for some reason a select group would rather just always wish for the worst and focus on the negative. There are far more collectors than some of these people like to pretend just like some of the "true collectors" seem to worry about value more than they let on. Hobby looks strong will there be a pull back of course there always is no market is constantly rising but I think we don't end up worse than we were before the pandemic just seems illogical.

[Jewish-collector]

I think the kids (with all the money you see at the shows) are just the children of these wealthy non-collector guys, who recently have been buying the record breaking Michael Jordan rookies, Trout rookies, Lebron rookies, etc,... and they give their sons $20,000 to make it grow.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I think a lot depends on the United States economic conditions, if inflation is only transitory like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says then we should be OK. I have a feeling it’s going to be a little more rough than transitory.

This.

[wazoo]

Originally Posted by Tony Gordon

I have been running a monthly show in Milwaukee for the past seven years, 2021 has been my best year to date. Trends I have observed lately: modern is currently much more popular than vintage. I have more Pokemon dealers at my show than ever before. In total, there are more dealers than ever before. My wait list for dealer tables reached a high point a few months ago of 70 people. Spending and price hikes were crazy earlier in the year but it appears both spending and prices are leveling off. My show, for one, is very healthy and I expect good things in the future. My next show at the Salvation Army Community Center, 8853 S. Howell, in Oak Creek, WI (south suburb of Milwaukee) is July 3. Come check it out if you are in the area!

It's a great show, +1

[whitehse]

Originally Posted by wazoo

It's a great show, +1

I second this. I plan to be there in July, the first show I have attended since all this "stuff" started last year

[hcv123]

I can tell you I was impressed to have spoken with at least about a dozen younger collectors -20 somethings between Chantilly and Philly that were looking to get out of modern and into vintage!! I don't subscribe to the "doom and gloom" thesis. Prices on some of the big stars are already leveling off from their short decline after the long run up. People are buying these cards (I know because I have sold a number of them). I suspect shows for the next 2-6 months are going to be very strong and will drop off as post Covid life gets back to normal, but will still be better attended than pre Covid.

[wazoo]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I can tell you I was impressed to have spoken with at least about a dozen younger collectors -20 somethings between Chantilly and Philly that were looking to get out of modern and into vintage!! I don't subscribe to the "doom and gloom" thesis. Prices on some of the big stars are already leveling off from their short decline after the long run up. People are buying these cards (I know because I have sold a number of them). I suspect shows for the next 2-6 months are going to be very strong and will drop off as post Covid life gets back to normal, but will still be better attended than pre Covid.

There’s a pretty decent outfit of us younger collectors on Facebook. Seems to just be another medium.

[vintagechris]

I agree with what packs is saying and that's pretty much what I see. I don't know if most people are speculators but the number of speculators/investors to collector seems to be out of whack.

That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing as there are more people in the hobby except I think a large majority of those are in it because they saw a way to make easy money and when it is no longer easy, they leave.

You saw prices being run up for modern graded base cards because investors thought they could make quick money flipping them. They would even say buy the base cards because they are liquid. Well, they are only liquid as long as demand outweighs the supply. That currently is not the case for most modern.

People who bought Lebron, Jordan, Kobe and a myriad of other modern cards in February and March for the most part got crushed. Factor in some if not quite a few funded their buying with debt and you got some people who learned a hard lesson.