Recent price action

[Kutcher55]

I don't think you can really look at the Jordan RC PSA 10s of the world to determine the direction of the overall market. For the majority who play in the mere mortal world of cards costing anywhere from $5 to $5000 (and I do understand many people on net54 go above this threshold) I would say prices are certainly down from the peak, which to me was the insane PWCC auction that closed on Valentine's day.

Without hard data, but nonetheless being a math guy and and analyst who focuses on certain mid grade cards, I think the vintage baseball market had a long run-up from late '19 up until early '21 and then when Hank Aaron passed away on January 22nd (RIP great man) the market went into complete insane overdrive for 3-4 weeks and you saw prices in some cases double. For the other sports, particularly basketball, this explosion happened earlier.

Anyway, since February 14th things began to decline subtly at first and I think that decline has accelerated some lately as many predicted would happen when the vaccines started to work and people began planning to spend money on other stuff this summer. That all said, the market is still above mid January 2021 levels by my count. There are fewer deals happening as people who overspent hold out and you can see more buyers getting shy on the trigger. So if you ask me there's probably some additional decline coming, but the real test won't happen until winter when it gets freezing again in the north and people have less to do.

[Snapolit1]

Good take. I think that's very insightful.

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

I don't think you can really look at the Jordan RC PSA 10s of the world to determine the direction of the overall market. For the majority who play in the mere mortal world of cards costing anywhere from $5 to $5000 (and I do understand many people on net54 go above this threshold) I would say prices are certainly down from the peak, which to me was the insane PWCC auction that closed on Valentine's day.

Without hard data, but nonetheless being a math guy and and analyst who focuses on certain mid grade cards, I think the vintage baseball market had a long run-up from late '19 up until early '21 and then when Hank Aaron passed away on January 22nd (RIP great man) the market went into complete insane overdrive for 3-4 weeks and you saw prices in some cases double. For the other sports, particularly basketball, this explosion happened earlier.

Anyway, since February 14th things began to decline subtly at first and I think that decline has accelerated some lately as many predicted would happen when the vaccines started to work and people began planning to spend money on other stuff this summer. That all said, the market is still above mid January 2021 levels by my count. There are fewer deals happening as people who overspent hold out and you can see more buyers getting shy on the trigger. So if you ask me there's probably some additional decline coming, but the real test won't happen until winter when it gets freezing again in the north and people have less to do.

[Tao_Moko]

The bst has much less "wtb" and there are a number of key cards available that aren't disappearing immediately. Curious if there is also a decline in new forum members this month compared to February. At a minimum, there's an apparent slowdown and more cautious approach by long time members that I am seeing.

Am I wrong? Are you all spending as much right now as compared to prior months this year?

I have all but stopped. Looking for a Summer home and sitting here watching inflation snuggle in and waiting for the housing market decline. Going to need that cash moneys!

[vthobby]

I have spent about 10K this month so far......no slowdown.

Mike

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Tao_Moko

The bst has much less "wtb" and there are a number of key cards available that aren't disappearing immediately. Curious if there is also a decline in new forum members this month compared to February. At a minimum, there's an apparent slowdown and more cautious approach by long time members that I am seeing.

Am I wrong? Are you all spending as much right now as compared to prior months this year?

I have all but stopped. Looking for a Summer home and sitting here watching inflation snuggle in and waiting for the housing market decline. Going to need that cash moneys!

I’m not buying at all right now, but it’s purely because I’m out of money

[Eric72]

My spending is fairly constant. Think of a dollar-cost-averaging approach to collecting.

The deals I'm getting now are better than a few months ago.

[Tao_Moko]

Originally Posted by Eric72

My spending is fairly constant. Think of a dollar-cost-averaging approach to collecting.

The deals I'm getting now are better than a few months ago.

I like the disciplined approach of budgeting hobby spend. I have a similar approach, but admit to going way off track the end of last year and up to April of this year. I spent $15k/month and built volume on cards I felt would do well longer term(May's, Gehrig, Ruth, Williams, etc). Primarily mid grade raw with strong presentation and some obscure issues. Included were a few thousand boxing cards. I've spent less than $1k this month.

[Snapolit1]

Seems to me that higher end stuff in BST has basically dried up. See the PSA 1s and 2s, but no one is selling high end stuff at a friends and family discount. I look particularly at the baseball memorabilia board and it’s been a while since I’ve seen something truly higher end. Lots of odds and ends.

[swabie2424]

Originally Posted by Eric72

My spending is fairly constant. Think of a dollar-cost-averaging approach to collecting. The deals I'm getting now are better than a few months ago.

I’m right there with you. I just keep plugging away. I’m not worried about timing the market. I’ll just steadily buy all the way down - grabbing every card that fits my fancy along the way. I have always been the ultimate long haul mindset guy.

Obviously if things crater in an unexpected way I’d be ready to pounce and quadruple down to scoop up deals, but I really don’t expect that to happen on HOF/Superstar upper mid-low high grade 50’s/60’s stuff, which is where I live. I’m a lower mid-grade pre-war guy but I just never see pre-war really falling off a cliff. As others have said… too much is buried in collections of those who properly adore it.

[Yoda]

When big price swings occur, I try to remember that if card prices plunge and the book value of my collection craters, I still have the cards to hold, admire and put under my pillow at night, if necessary; it hardly compares to holding Petcom stock, that old dog, during the dot.com crash of the 90's.