Recent price action

[Exhibitman]

From an editorial on SCD the other day:

"Anyone following the market closely realizes that some areas of the card market have hit a soft spot or a plateau. Prices have clearly started to drop online for some individual cards or categories and I can tell you firsthand, there is less overall interest in store than there was a few weeks ago, but I’m not saying the sky is falling just yet, Chicken Little.

Many of the people that brought cards in this week were scratching their head, wondering aloud as to why they couldn’t seem to sell at the rate or the price points that the very same cards fetched just a few short weeks and months ago. Fortunately or unfortunately, this is why we are seeing these cards in store now. Sellers can’t get the money they’re expecting online, so we are the last resort. People assume they can make more selling online than offering their inventory up to an LCS but I’m here to tell you that isn’t always the case- at least not for us.

On many Facebook groups and message boards, I have recently noticed more and more people (who I can assume are newer to the hobby) also complaining about people not making offers on the cards they have listed or just having a tougher time selling them in groups in general.

There are fewer and fewer young kids coming in looking for the hottest basketball singles, boxes or packs. There are fewer unfamiliar faces in the shop daily buying boxes lately. Heck, I haven’t seen anyone standing in our store on their phone comping prices online for weeks. So, there’s definitely a sense or a feeling in the air that things are a-changing.

Our box and pack sales are down but at the same time we have a number of categories that are still hot. We are still selling big stars, rookies and fun items like that, they are just selling for a little less at the moment."

The stupid money is on the march. That's why you see frothy commentary and a plateau: the remaining players are trying to hype their stuff ahead of selling, while the potential purchasers try to decide whether the music has stopped playing. Just watch for the stampede to the exits on anything where the speculators rule the roost. This is the start of the desperation selling and ultimately capitulation. By the end of the summer I would not be surprised to see 20%-30% price drops from the prices at the height of the frenzy on a vast array of cards. Quality prewar will be the last to feel it. When there are only a few hundred examples of a card and most of them are in the hands of people like us who will be loaded into our caskets clutching them, prices tend to go up and stick the longest, or supply just vanishes as prices soften because we don't have to sell.

Where to jump back in will be the fun game to play.

[egri]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

From an editorial on SCD the other day:

"Anyone following the market closely realizes that some areas of the card market have hit a soft spot or a plateau. Prices have clearly started to drop online for some individual cards or categories and I can tell you firsthand, there is less overall interest in store than there was a few weeks ago, but I’m not saying the sky is falling just yet, Chicken Little.

Many of the people that brought cards in this week were scratching their head, wondering aloud as to why they couldn’t seem to sell at the rate or the price points that the very same cards fetched just a few short weeks and months ago. Fortunately or unfortunately, this is why we are seeing these cards in store now. Sellers can’t get the money they’re expecting online, so we are the last resort. People assume they can make more selling online than offering their inventory up to an LCS but I’m here to tell you that isn’t always the case- at least not for us.

On many Facebook groups and message boards, I have recently noticed more and more people (who I can assume are newer to the hobby) also complaining about people not making offers on the cards they have listed or just having a tougher time selling them in groups in general.

There are fewer and fewer young kids coming in looking for the hottest basketball singles, boxes or packs. There are fewer unfamiliar faces in the shop daily buying boxes lately. Heck, I haven’t seen anyone standing in our store on their phone comping prices online for weeks. So, there’s definitely a sense or a feeling in the air that things are a-changing.

Our box and pack sales are down but at the same time we have a number of categories that are still hot. We are still selling big stars, rookies and fun items like that, they are just selling for a little less at the moment."

The stupid money is on the march. That's why you see frothy commentary and a plateau: the remaining players are trying to hype their stuff ahead of selling, while the potential purchasers try to decide whether the music has stopped playing. Just watch for the stampede to the exits on anything where the speculators rule the roost. This is the start of the desperation selling and ultimately capitulation. By the end of the summer I would not be surprised to see 20%-30% price drops from the prices at the height of the frenzy on a vast array of cards. Quality prewar will be the last to feel it. When there are only a few hundred examples of a card and most of them are in the hands of people like us who will be loaded into our caskets clutching them, prices tend to go up and stick the longest, or supply just vanishes as prices soften because we don't have to sell.

Where to jump back in will be the fun game to play.

It'll be interesting to see if this spills over into real estate, stocks, etc. The S&P 500 is down for the month, and I'm a member of a couple watch collecting forums where they're seeing the same bubble effect we have, and the attendant rise in speculators, flippers and a lot of the same complaints I've seen raised here.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by egri

It'll be interesting to see if this spills over into real estate, stocks, etc. The S&P 500 is down for the month, and I'm a member of a couple watch collecting forums where they're seeing the same bubble effect we have, and the attendant rise in speculators, flippers and a lot of the same complaints I've seen raised here.

I've seen a few posts like this in the last couple weeks and I just don't get it.

The S&P isn't even down this month actually. It's flat. Given the modest inflation fears that have percolated lately (ones that can easily cause a noticeable selloff for awhile), that's an awful strong performance for a market which is 1% off all time highs and that's been on a tear. A tear for not just the last year, but the last 40 years.

I'm not saying that Wall Street hasn't peaked for now. But given how impossibly strong the market continues to be (and the endless flow of 401 k money into it that shows no signs of stopping), good luck calling a top.

As far as sportscards go, as others have said, the overall phases that've happened lately are common. Modern/fad-type stuff/cards with the most extended 20-30x leaps getting hit the hardest. Boring blue chips with great, but not insane gains should hold on a lot better

Funny thing is that if you told someone that their Jordan PSA 10 rookie had gone from 30 k to 300 k in a year and a half (without them knowing that the peak was more than twice that), they still would've thought it was the most amazing thing ever

[egri]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I've seen a few posts like this in the last couple weeks and I just don't get it.

The S&P isn't even down this month actually. It's flat. Given the modest inflation fears that have percolated lately (ones that can easily cause a noticeable selloff for awhile), that's an awful strong performance for a market which is 1% off all time highs and that's been on a tear. A tear for not just the last year, but the last 40 years.

I'm not saying that Wall Street hasn't peaked for now. But given how impossibly strong the market continues to be (and the endless flow of 401 k money into it that shows no signs of stopping), good luck calling a top.

As far as sportscards go, as others have said, the overall phases that've happened lately are common. Modern/fad-type stuff/cards with the most extended 20-30x leaps getting hit the hardest. Boring blue chips with great, but not insane gains should hold on a lot better

Funny thing is that if you told someone that their Jordan PSA 10 rookie had gone from 30 k to 300 k in a year and a half (without them knowing that the peak was more than twice that), they still would've thought it was the most amazing thing ever

I just checked and you're right; I guess after the runup in the past year, treading water feels like a downturn!

I think a lot of the people who have jumped onboard in the past year don't have very strong memories of the 2008 crash or other downturns (not counting the selloff last spring because that recovered so quickly). I see it with my sailors who are talking about getting in to real estate and other investments; they think they only go one direction, up. I've tried warning them that elevator has a down button as well, but if they want to learn from experience, well that's their decision.

[AMBST95]

PSA finally getting caught up is going to continue to hurt the ultramodern market. I'd expect some new collectors will stick around so overall the market will be better than it was before the big climb but no where near the peaks. Auctions have been down the past month or so and I'm hoping they continue to drop going in to the summer.

[puckpaul]

I do think on the more modern stuff, supply has finally been brought out to match or sometimes overwhelm demand. So we are definitely in a correction period. For instance, Classic Auctions has 54 Gretzky rookies this month! Today the past few years there would be 3-10. so prices still strong but no way they will hold up except maybe the ultra high end where rarity still might exist. The grading backlog and time it takes for supply to catch up definitely fueled the runup.

Perhaps the 40-60% retracement in crypto prices is affecting the silly money a little, for now, as well.

NOT seeing 54 Wajo portraits in one auction, though supply of prewar is up a fair bit, too, on the less rare stuff. The expense of grading will keep a lid on the supply as well.

[chriskim]

Just need to compare the prices of 1986 Fleer Jordan RC PSA10 then we know the market is going south and head back to "normal". That card was at a $640K level (sold at that price twice in the same auction) and now down to $250K. It should back down to a 5 figure card by EOY.

[t206fanatic]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The stupid money is on the march. That's why you see frothy commentary and a plateau: the remaining players are trying to hype their stuff ahead of selling, while the potential purchasers try to decide whether the music has stopped playing. Just watch for the stampede to the exits on anything where the speculators rule the roost. This is the start of the desperation selling and ultimately capitulation. By the end of the summer I would not be surprised to see 20%-30% price drops from the prices at the height of the frenzy on a vast array of cards. Quality prewar will be the last to feel it. When there are only a few hundred examples of a card and most of them are in the hands of people like us who will be loaded into our caskets clutching them, prices tend to go up and stick the longest, or supply just vanishes as prices soften because we don't have to sell.

Where to jump back in will be the fun game to play.

I laughed pretty hard, you aren't wrong!

[Exhibitman]

The truth can be pretty funny sometimes...

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

From an editorial on SCD the other day:

"Anyone following the market closely realizes that some areas of the card market have hit a soft spot or a plateau. Prices have clearly started to drop online for some individual cards or categories and I can tell you firsthand, there is less overall interest in store than there was a few weeks ago, but I’m not saying the sky is falling just yet, Chicken Little.

Many of the people that brought cards in this week were scratching their head, wondering aloud as to why they couldn’t seem to sell at the rate or the price points that the very same cards fetched just a few short weeks and months ago. Fortunately or unfortunately, this is why we are seeing these cards in store now. Sellers can’t get the money they’re expecting online, so we are the last resort. People assume they can make more selling online than offering their inventory up to an LCS but I’m here to tell you that isn’t always the case- at least not for us.

On many Facebook groups and message boards, I have recently noticed more and more people (who I can assume are newer to the hobby) also complaining about people not making offers on the cards they have listed or just having a tougher time selling them in groups in general.

There are fewer and fewer young kids coming in looking for the hottest basketball singles, boxes or packs. There are fewer unfamiliar faces in the shop daily buying boxes lately. Heck, I haven’t seen anyone standing in our store on their phone comping prices online for weeks. So, there’s definitely a sense or a feeling in the air that things are a-changing.

Our box and pack sales are down but at the same time we have a number of categories that are still hot. We are still selling big stars, rookies and fun items like that, they are just selling for a little less at the moment."

The stupid money is on the march. That's why you see frothy commentary and a plateau: the remaining players are trying to hype their stuff ahead of selling, while the potential purchasers try to decide whether the music has stopped playing. Just watch for the stampede to the exits on anything where the speculators rule the roost. This is the start of the desperation selling and ultimately capitulation. By the end of the summer I would not be surprised to see 20%-30% price drops from the prices at the height of the frenzy on a vast array of cards. Quality prewar will be the last to feel it. When there are only a few hundred examples of a card and most of them are in the hands of people like us who will be loaded into our caskets clutching them, prices tend to go up and stick the longest, or supply just vanishes as prices soften because we don't have to sell.

Where to jump back in will be the fun game to play.

I think sellers are holding on until the National. After that they will be dumping whatever is left. They road the wave to the top and are looking for a jump off point.

[Johnny630]

The Top was early April....Many of this was Caused IMO by artificial inflated numbers generated by investors/buyers clubs. They made their monies on the undercards.

[darwinbulldog]

If you look at the most popular rookie (or "rookie") cards of the top players across (in increasing order) NHL, MLB, NFL, and NBA history and track their sales over the past several months you'll see they've dropped on the order of 50% since mid-February.

[Snapolit1]

I do think there has been a combination of fatique and oversaturation. Seems like strong auctions are no longer a rare treat but an everyday fact of life.

Jordan RCs prime example. Was a treat when the first few 9s arrived at auction. 2,500 cards later, not so special.

I also think speculation on stocks, real estate, and all sorts of things have dropped off as the country has opened up a great deal more. All of a sudden going outside and getting away from the computer is looking real attractive.

I'd expect speculation in Jeter cards will take off a ESPN has announced a new 6 part series. I really can't see where a Jeter series will lead to Jordan like hysteria, but I'm sure some people are betting on it.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I do think there has been a combination of fatique and oversaturation. Seems like strong auctions are no longer a rare treat but an everyday fact of life.

Jordan RCs prime example. Was a treat when the first few 9s arrived at auction. 2,500 cards later, not so special.

I also think speculation on stocks, real estate, and all sorts of things have dropped off as the country has opened up a great deal more. All of a sudden going outside and getting away from the computer is looking real attractive.

I'd expect speculation in Jeter cards will take off a ESPN has announced a new 6 part series. I really can't see where a Jeter series will lead to Jordan like hysteria, but I'm sure some people are betting on it.

It appears that ebay prices have been hit harder than auction house prices, which seem to have pulled back much less, overall.

I think everyone saw this coming and it'll continue now that COVID is more or less behind us. Many will move on to other interests over the next year or so. People are also going to need more money to pay for all of the essentials that are skyrocketing - rent, gas, food, building supplies, etc. Heck even some printing paper has almost doubled in price.

[Flintboy]

I think the biggest drop will be right after the National. There will be some dealers who bought heavy during the recent high and they will be stuck with some high dollar inventory.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

It appears that ebay prices have been hit harder than auction house prices, which seem to have pulled back much less, overall.

A fellow victim, er, eBay seller PM'd me with an interesting hypothesis. He says his sales dropped off markedly when eBay reconfigured its trading card listings. I have noticed the same thing. It is especially bad with boxing cards. You used to be able to browse the Boxing Cards category, but now every search for boxing brings up every listing with "box" in the title. You can somewhat curtail this by doing "-box" in the search, but I think the confusion is making things harder to find and cutting down sales as a result.