Here we go yet again -- alleged trimmed and recolored CJs at auction

[benjulmag]

I suspect the great majority of these altered card are altered by methods that CAN be scientifically detected. Assuming this is the case, then it seems inevitable to me that it is just a matter of time before a TPG emerges that grades cards scientifically. By that I mean that besides the usual subjective assessment of aesthetic appearance, there will be a scientific component that uses certain objective scientific criteria (e.g., presence of foreign dyes, chemical differences between newly trimmed borders and borders that have been exposed to the environment for over 100 years) that will make the conclusion the card has been altered a scientific fact, as opposed to a mere opinion. Once we get to that stage, I simply don't see how a card that has been shown by that method to be altered can hold its value.

It wouldn't surprise me if someone is out there now working on just such a model. True it will take millions in startup capital to build such a startup, which capital will include the need to to buy slabbed high condition cards and expose them to be altered. And true it will take a market willingness to pay the hefty grading fees such a startup would need to charge in order to be profitable. But inasmuch as we are already well into 7-figure territory for desirable sports cards, what is spending an additional 4 or 5-figure cost to ensure the card is what it is represented to be? The economic impact of that to the purchaser would be the equivalent of the BP being raised by less than one point.

And here might be the kicker. If, as has been speculated, much of the recent price rise is being fueled by funds regarding sport cards as investment vehicles and marketing them as such, then I would think in time such funds will put themselves at risk of violating their fiduciary obligation to their clients if they do not require that their sport card acquisitions be vetted by such a high tech grading method.

As to the point that there will be insufficient demand for such a high-tech grading service since what creates the demand for sports cards is the number on the slab (as opposed to the "real" condition of the card), that may be the case now. But I do not see how that mentality will be able to sustain the market once such a new TPG enters the scene and enough currently slabbed cards are shown to be altered.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I suspect the great majority of these altered card are altered by methods that CAN be scientifically detected. Assuming this is the case, then it seems inevitable to me that it is just a matter of time before a TPG emerges that grades cards scientifically. By that I mean that besides the usual subjective assessment of aesthetic appearance, there will be a scientific component that uses certain objective scientific criteria (e.g., presence of foreign dyes, chemical differences between newly trimmed borders and borders that have been exposed to the environment for over 100 years) that will make the conclusion the card has been altered a scientific fact, as opposed to a mere opinion. Once we get to that stage, I simply don't see how a card that has been shown by that method to be altered can hold its value.

It wouldn't surprise me if someone is out there now working on just such a model. True it will take millions in startup capital to build such a startup, which capital will include the need to to buy slabbed high condition cards and expose them to be altered. And true it will take a market willingness to pay the hefty grading fees such a startup would need to charge in order to be profitable. But inasmuch as we are already well into 7-figure territory for desirable sports cards, what is spending an additional 4 or 5-figure cost to ensure the card is what it is represented to be? The economic impact of that to the purchaser would be the equivalent of the BP being raised by less than one point.

And here might be the kicker. If, as has been speculated, much of the recent price rise is being fueled by funds regarding sport cards as investment vehicles and marketing them as such, then I would think in time such funds will put themselves at risk of violating their fiduciary obligation to their clients if they do not require that their sport card acquisitions be vetted by such a high tech grading method.

As to the point that there will be insufficient demand for such a high-tech grading service since what creates the demand for sports cards is the number on the slab (as opposed to the "real" condition of the card), that may be the case now. But I do not see how that mentality will be able to sustain the market once such a new TPG enters the scene and enough currently slabbed cards are shown to be altered.

That's an interesting take on things.

I'm not sure what the state of the art is for coins , but they seem to have tightened up a lot on things that were common, like nearly 100% of shiny silver coins being technically cleaned.

With Stamps, the major expertizing groups have added grading, which is almost entirely based on centering.
I've met a couple people who do expertizing, and the depth of knowledge is amazing. But they also tend to only work in a fairly narrow field, like US between 1873 and 1890. Not that they don;t know a LOT about all the other areas, and even about many foreign stamps, but their primary area they get paid to work with is just that. (Some may work more generally, most of the information applies across many areas)

The first step for them is "is it a genuine stamp" followed by "which exact stamp is it?" any major flaws will allow a certificate saying it's real, but with noted flaws but no grade. They take their time, and apparently do compare notes between three different expertizers.
Very little of that is done with scientific equipment, but there are groups working that way. They just don't do expertizing (although members might)
They also take their time.

I had a couple stamps looked at during a "what's my stamp worth" type event at the international show in 2006. The explaining how to tell what they were took him longer than the identifying, which took literally a few seconds.
(I like done, had doubts about the other, and was pretty pleased to be right about both )
I've also sent in a couple, and the companies take their time so they get it right. One was probably easy, as it was one of the ones I took to the international, the other was a new discovery of a major variety, and the first of its kind expertized. Unlike PSA, they are totally ok with things that aren't cataloged yet in fact, getting a certificate may be necessary to get it cataloged. I included a copy of an article describing the variety, which probably helped. I haven't bought a new catalog in years, so I don't know if it ever got listed, or if I'd have to push a bit for a listing. (I had another discovery that was picked up on by a second tier catalog and listed. )

It's certainly possible to detect pretty much any alteration. But it does require knowing something about the item, and actually looking. Something the graders appear to actively avoid.

[benjulmag]

Thanks for the response Steve. What you describe appears to be materially different from PSA's business model, which is based on volume. I agree that many alterations that get by are detectable without scientific means, if graders took the time and had the expertise in the myriad of different card issues to detect alterations. But they don't, and the fact that PSA is for the time being not accepting new submissions until they clear up the backlog hardly gives one confidence this business model will be changing anytime soon.

And that is why the grading market is wide open IMO for a new type of company, one that should it come into being I simply don't see how in time cannot make obsolete the current model of grading.

[steve B]

If I wasn't hopelessly disorganized, I'd have given it a try a few years ago.

But I know that if I did I'd have a backlog with just a few cards, mostly because I'd get distracted to other stuff.

I'd also be more like the stamp places. A certificate with photo and a description of the flaws. I've tried to figure out how to have a slab that has a place to put an accompanying certificate, but I haven't really found anything that I think would work.
The closest I can get would be a sealed mylar holder a bit like a book, card sealed into one side, the cert in a pocket on the other.

Building out what people would probably want, a serious web site, with a database and high res scans and a workable registry would be way beyond what I could do.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by steve B

If I wasn't hopelessly disorganized, I'd have given it a try a few years ago.

But I know that if I did I'd have a backlog with just a few cards, mostly because I'd get distracted to other stuff.

I'd also be more like the stamp places. A certificate with photo and a description of the flaws. I've tried to figure out how to have a slab that has a place to put an accompanying certificate, but I haven't really found anything that I think would work.
The closest I can get would be a sealed mylar holder a bit like a book, card sealed into one side, the cert in a pocket on the other.

Building out what people would probably want, a serious web site, with a database and high res scans and a workable registry would be way beyond what I could do.

I've tried to figure out how to have a slab that has a place to put an accompanying certificate, but I haven't really found anything that I think would work.

How about a QR code on the back of the label.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I've tried to figure out how to have a slab that has a place to put an accompanying certificate, but I haven't really found anything that I think would work.

How about a QR code on the back of the label.

That would work, but I'm so totally not a software guy. I've done all of 24 lines of modern code, and it took a long time.

I also prefer a hard copy cert, like this one.



It clearly lets anyone know what they're getting. A genuine stamp with a particular variety, and a faked cancel. The large red stamp calling particular attention to an alteration is a fairly recent thing, and a good idea.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by steve B

That would work, but I'm so totally not a software guy. I've done all of 24 lines of modern code, and it took a long time.

I also prefer a hard copy cert, like this one.



It clearly lets anyone know what they're getting. A genuine stamp with a particular variety, and a faked cancel. The large red stamp calling particular attention to an alteration is a fairly recent thing, and a good idea.

I think it could work!!