Bursting Bubble

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I hear this all the time and it has always confused me. They didn't "flood the market" they met demand. Blaming them for the demand is bassackwards.

That's true from the perspective of the card manufacturers. If they sold everything they printed, then they didn't "over-produce." They met demand, as you say, and there was insatiable demand.

I sold 100 card lots of single players back then, and several customers bought rookie cards by the 800 count box. One fellow in New York bought 4,500 each of about 40 different 1987 Topps cards from me, which was basically a 300 vending case custom sort. I always wondered what the end game was supposed to be, when a guy had 4,500 Wally Joyner or Mike Greenwell rookies. Some day find another buyer who wanted thousands of those guys' cards I guess.

So I'm not placing blame on card companies for printing and printing and printing cards in the late 1980s. What I'm saying is that tons and tons of the stuff was printed, making its long-term value impossible to sustain.

[68Hawk]

Today's collector isn't buying the way the wild eyed 90's collector was. Not grabbing everything in sight in pure blind hope... it's targeted and based on a punters eye for talent.
If they buy packs/boxes/cases or in to breaks, it's in the hope of landing a prized rookie from that year - one whose name they already know and are praying for, or high end material/parallels of established superstars.
The flotsam players they gather in the wash mostly go in the bin.
No one's building entire sets from an issue, holding all the cards hoping a gem player floats up from the dust. They build subsets of one players' cards, or a few from their team, that have specific meaning whether fan based or monetarily.

People aren't buying the huge amount of product that's being made because they believe somewhere within it all they'll get lucky opening it up in 5 years after it's sat gathering dust in the closet.
They make their estimation much like Mel Kiper or any other so called draft expert and hope to predict the next young big thing whose cards will be worth big big dollars.

The new collector isn't going to have 50,000 junk cards he's got $50K in to, and needing to dump because they didn't play out. He's going to have a selected collection that may or may not pan out, but will probably take 5-10 years to truly make that evaluation. So he holds, waits, and watches sports.

There are still plenty of high end collectors holding significant Aaron Rogers collections and Russell Wilson collections who believe there still a chance, with say a run of 3 super bowls somehow materializing, their fancied horse having a chance to be considered as all time greats.

They've had that money in those players for 10+ years.
There's no dump, no bubble. Price corrections sure, but in quality players a baseline of value for rarer material holds strong.
Just some wins, some losses, and next years possibles.
There are more non KC Chiefs supporting collectors on the Pat Mahomes thread in Blowout than the idiologues. They buy his cards because of the slight promise of what he may one day achieve.

In my opinion, the hobby is at the OPENING of a chance to go truly mainstream. No bubble, no overproduction, just a free floating market like the stock exchange with an enormous number of people participating and prices for players will flow up and down accordingly. Only way more enjoyable because sportcards are awesome - yes even modern - and can have meaning even outside of their financial performance.
Vintage should likely be the stable steady earner.

The idea that more people in means more likely bubble is silly.
In fact it's the opposite.
More in, more believers, better understanding that it's a market to play and just like stocks the long hold in blue chip is safe, and the flutter on speculatives can be exhilarating and rewarding or flat loss making.
Aaand, they will feel far more knowledgeable about what they own than the faceless stocks with fake profit loss sheets they're currently indentured to.

Or none of it might happen, and sportscards recede back into the niche it's always held.
We'll know pretty shortly. Next 12-24 months should tell everything.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Historically, trying to time any market usually fails more often than succeeds. It's easy to pontificate but a lot harder to be right.

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

The idea that more people in means more likely bubble is silly.
In fact it's the opposite.
More in, more believers, better understanding that it's a market to play and just like stocks the long hold in blue chip is safe, and the flutter on speculatives can be exhilarating and rewarding or flat loss making.
Aaand, they will feel far more knowledgeable about what they own than the faceless stocks with fake profit loss sheets they're currently indentured to.

This is absolutely incorrect. You are giving humans way too much credit. It’s a very basic economic principle... The more people you throw into this, the more people are involved that have no idea what they’re doing. They get sucked in because they see their friend, brother, sister, mother, etc.. crushing it. They see how easy people make it look to turn huge profits. It’s one of the main contributors to a bubble! It’s those same people that loose their shirt, or throw the towel in early, or cut losses and dump cards. Once the initial fear hits, that happens on a MASSIVE scale. I applaud you for having that kind of faith in man kind, but statistically it’s incorrect. And every single economic crash will show you that.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

This is absolutely incorrect. You are giving humans way too much credit. It’s a very basic economic principle... The more people you throw into this, the more people are involved that have no idea what they’re doing. They get sucked in because they see their friend, brother, sister, mother, etc.. crushing it. They see how easy people make it look to turn huge profits. It’s one of the main contributors to a bubble! It’s those same people that loose their shirt, or throw the towel in early, or cut losses and dump cards. Once the initial fear hits, that happens on a MASSIVE scale. I applaud you for having that kind of faith in man kind, but statistically it’s incorrect. And every single economic crash will show you that.

I agree. The increasing heard number only increases the heard mentally and its adverse effect when the selling starts.

[bmattioli]

Once people get their ass's back to work and stop pretend zooming all day while looking at E-Bay and other outlets spending money instead spend the day sitting in traffic jams thinking about the next vacation to spend their cash on will the bubble burst. Only my opinion..

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

Once people get their ass's back to work and stop pretend zooming all day while looking at E-Bay and other outlets spending money instead spend the day sitting in traffic jams thinking about the next vacation to spend their cash on will the bubble burst. Only my opinion..

It’s one many agree with. That description fits me very well.

[philo98]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

Once people get their ass's back to work and stop pretend zooming all day while looking at E-Bay and other outlets spending money instead spend the day sitting in traffic jams thinking about the next vacation to spend their cash on will the bubble burst. Only my opinion..

Completely agree with this. I move Expats around the world and although it has nothing to do with the travel industry, occasionally information crosses over. The info I have is there is an enormous pent up demand for people to get out, travel, go to movies, sporting events, practically anything social, and once people are able to do this, they will spend more of their money and time away from the computer.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I agree. The increasing heard number only increases the heard mentally and its adverse effect when the selling starts.

Herd aka crowd effect, is a signal that most of the entrants have jumped in the pool and are drinking the coolaid. But crowdedness doesn’t cause the bubble to pop. Bull markets don’t die of old age, they get murdered. The 2000 bubble popped because people were using relative price/sale valuations on companies with no earnings and poor fundamentals (like today’s SPACs). The 2008 financial crisis was caused by systemic risk in the financial system brought by greed and lipstick pigs, aka private-label, securitized liar loans.

This current bubble has shades of it all. The dot com valuations of 2000, the inflated home prices of 2008, and the possibility of a 70’s Nixon style inflation that killed the nifty fifty back in ‘73. Interesting that the nifty fifty, or the country’s fastest growing large caps is analogous to FANG/tech. Which is plausible as we move away from zero bound discount rates, impacting growth company valuations the most (as their terminal out year values are shrunk by a rising discount rate). If you were wondering why growth underperformed value (dividend/materials/energy/financials), this is why. This may not happen, we may continue to get a Goldilocks economy for a little longer because the economic disparity is creating a very unbalanced economy not conducive to sustained inflation. But the risk is still there.

Long winded way of saying herd mentality is a signal on how much juice is left to squeeze, but not necessarily for a top or end of the bull run. FOMO and herd mentality can last for a while - exemplified in this 12+ year bull run in the market.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” - John Templeton

And yet I find it interesting outside of the MDs, none of the analysts have been around the last time there was a bear market...

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Herd aka crowd effect, is a signal that most of the entrants have jumped in the pool and are drinking the coolaid. But crowdedness doesn’t cause the bubble to pop. Bull markets don’t die of old age, they get murdered. The 2000 bubble popped because people were using relative price/sale valuations on companies with no earnings and poor fundamentals (like today’s SPACs). The 2008 financial crisis was caused by systemic risk in the financial system brought by greed and lipstick pigs, aka private-label, securitized liar loans.

This current bubble has shades of it all. The dot com valuations of 2000, the inflated home prices of 2008, and the possibility of a 70’s Nixon style inflation that killed the nifty fifty back in ‘73. Interesting that the nifty fifty, or the country’s fastest growing large caps is analogous to FANG/tech. Which is plausible as we move away from zero bound discount rates, impacting growth company variations the most (as their terminal out year values are shrunk by a rising discount rate). If you were wondering why growth underperformed value (dividend/materials/energy/financials), this is why. This may not happen, we may continue to get a Goldilocks economy for a little longer because the economic disparity is creating a very unbalanced economy not conducive to sustained inflation. But the risk is still there.

Long winded way of saying herd mentality is a signal on how much juice is left to squeeze, but not necessarily for a top or end of the bull run. FOMO and herd mentality can last for a while - exemplified in this 12+ year bull run in the market.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” - John Templeton

Agree 100%. I view the heard mentality as an indicator that the “euphoria” is abundant. Doesn’t mean it’s the top and, like you said, could last for years. Nobody ever knows. But bulls / bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

This is absolutely incorrect. You are giving humans way too much credit. It’s a very basic economic principle... The more people you throw into this, the more people are involved that have no idea what they’re doing. They get sucked in because they see their friend, brother, sister, mother, etc.. crushing it. They see how easy people make it look to turn huge profits. It’s one of the main contributors to a bubble! It’s those same people that loose their shirt, or throw the towel in early, or cut losses and dump cards. Once the initial fear hits, that happens on a MASSIVE scale. I applaud you for having that kind of faith in man kind, but statistically it’s incorrect. And every single economic crash will show you that.

Interesting, but not having any idea of what they're doing never stopped this nation making the stock market it's default retirement plan.
I think there's room for people to own cards, and I think you waaaaaay overestimate the brain matter and knowledge it takes to pick some cards to buy.
Sports may be the one area this nation actually invests significant cognitive energy towards, and that's all it really takes. Know the players you think are good, ride the guestimates of the 'experts' as they announce the next big thing, and spend time on ebay.

It's hardly rocket science.

No, they're not going to spend time learning every esoteric vintage issue.
So what?
They need to know the names of 15-20 players and look online at what cards are available, where the money seems to be flowing suggesting desirability, and perhaps cruise to one of the many sites showing historical sales data.

I'm not giving enormous credit here. This place isn't home to the Mensa society, but simply a cross section of society who share a common interest.
It's cardboard, not carbon nanotubes.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

It’s a very basic economic principle... The more people you throw into this, the more people are involved that have no idea what they’re doing.

Could not agree more. A lot of newbies are making it easy for us veterans to make money when the bubble does pop. Sitting on a pile of cash waiting. If it takes a couple of years to pop and flush through to the point of capitulation, that's just fine by me. Stuff I bought up several years ago is selling like hotcakes at a multiple of what I paid for it, so I am selling into it; looking forward to doing it again. Yet we must not forget the most important thing: cards are fun. Speaking of which, this thread needs one:



Ty Says Relax