Printing More Money vs. High Card Prices

[Exhibitman]

It is not one thing.

--Some cards have been undervalued for a long time and haven't gone up in price hardly at all in years until relatively recently. $400 for a mid-grade Jim Brown RC was an asinine price. Take the 1972 Topps Dr. J rookie card. That card was an $800 PSA 8 for years and had gradually crept up to about $1500. It was one of the first pump-dump cards, going from that to nearly $10,000 in a few months. It then dropped back down and has stabilized around $3500. Was $800 too low for a nice RC of one of the greatest of all time? I's say absolutely yes. Was it pumped/dumped? Definitely. Is the current price more in line with where it should be? Probably.

--Some cards were driven by outside events. Kobe's death just before the pandemic, the documentary on Jordan and the Bulls. A growing understanding and appreciation of Jackie Robinson's legacy and place in the pantheon. The pending NL 100th anniversary and NL statistical absorption into MLB.

--Some cards are substitutes. Satchel Paige has four active-career MLB cards: 1949 Leaf, 1949 Bowman, 1953 Topps and the 1949 (ish) Exhibit card. That's it. The SP Leaf went to the stratosphere, people turned to the Bowman, which went up too, and then realized if you want a mainstream gum card of Satch, you better get a 1953 Topps. That card skied and people realized the Exhibit was left.

--Some cards have increased because collectors woke up to them. I think of the 1933 Goudey Ruth cards. Always popular but considered common and not a priority. Priced pretty stable for years. The idea that as of the last National I could pay high three figures for a low grade but presentable 1933 G Ruth but didn't bother makes me throw up a little in my mouth. Again, were they perhaps too cheap at the prior price? I'd think so. But definitely being pumped now.

--Some cards are simply up for demographic reasons: cards of the 1980s-1990s have been driven up in part because the collector kids of that era are now in their best earning years. I know a lot of guys who've bought their childhood dream cards. Many of them are PSA or Beckett believers and opt to pay a premium for a PSA card.

--Boredom: half the population of this country believes in the COVID lockdown and have acted accordingly. Lots of unused cash and frustration.

--Interest rates. What else are you going to do with your money? My high yield savings is yielding 0.5%.

--FOMO: there is a get in now mentality for some cards that are seen as going to the moon, esp. if they are staples of collections: T206 top HOFers, 1952 Topps, etc. Everyone who bought a 52 Mays last year is loving life right now. Everyone who didn't and who is working that set is pissed.

--Actual sales of mega-cards drive up prices of lesser versions. $5.2 mm for a 52 Mantle in top condition? Why wouldn't a 1 be 1% of that?

--It's a bubble. Once that is touched off, forget the rest of it. Remember 1991? 100,000 people at the Anaheim National ring any bells? Rugby scrums to get promo cards that were worth $100+ instantly when you walked in and found a dealer? The E card bubble before the Great Recession? The bubble on boxing cards around that time? Ringing any bells here?

I'm using this to clear out appreciated cards that i don't really appreciate, and to trade.

[Wanaselja]

/thread.

[Pjere]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It is not one thing.

--Some cards have been undervalued for a long time and haven't gone up in price hardly at all in years until relatively recently. $400 for a mid-grade Jim Brown RC was an asinine price. Take the 1972 Topps Dr. J rookie card. That card was an $800 PSA 8 for years and had gradually crept up to about $1500. It was one of the first pump-dump cards, going from that to nearly $10,000 in a few months. It then dropped back down and has stabilized around $3500. Was $800 too low for a nice RC of one of the greatest of all time? I's say absolutely yes. Was it pumped/dumped? Definitely. Is the current price more in line with where it should be? Probably.

--Some cards were driven by outside events. Kobe's death just before the pandemic, the documentary on Jordan and the Bulls. A growing understanding and appreciation of Jackie Robinson's legacy and place in the pantheon. The pending NL 100th anniversary and NL statistical absorption into MLB.

--Some cards are substitutes. Satchel Paige has four active-career MLB cards: 1949 Leaf, 1949 Bowman, 1953 Topps and the 1949 (ish) Exhibit card. That's it. The SP Leaf went to the stratosphere, people turned to the Bowman, which went up too, and then realized if you want a mainstream gum card of Satch, you better get a 1953 Topps. That card skied and people realized the Exhibit was left.

--Some cards have increased because collectors woke up to them. I think of the 1933 Goudey Ruth cards. Always popular but considered common and not a priority. Priced pretty stable for years. The idea that as of the last National I could pay high three figures for a low grade but presentable 1933 G Ruth but didn't bother makes me throw up a little in my mouth. Again, were they perhaps too cheap at the prior price? I'd think so. But definitely being pumped now.

--Some cards are simply up for demographic reasons: cards of the 1980s-1990s have been driven up in part because the collector kids of that era are now in their best earning years. I know a lot of guys who've bought their childhood dream cards. Many of them are PSA or Beckett believers and opt to pay a premium for a PSA card.

--Boredom: half the population of this country believes in the COVID lockdown and have acted accordingly. Lots of unused cash and frustration.

--Interest rates. What else are you going to do with your money? My high yield savings is yielding 0.5%.

--FOMO: there is a get in now mentality for some cards that are seen as going to the moon, esp. if they are staples of collections: T206 top HOFers, 1952 Topps, etc. Everyone who bought a 52 Mays last year is loving life right now. Everyone who didn't and who is working that set is pissed.

--Actual sales of mega-cards drive up prices of lesser versions. $5.2 mm for a 52 Mantle in top condition? Why wouldn't a 1 be 1% of that?

--It's a bubble. Once that is touched off, forget the rest of it. Remember 1991? 100,000 people at the Anaheim National ring any bells? Rugby scrums to get promo cards that were worth $100+ instantly when you walked in and found a dealer? The E card bubble before the Great Recession? The bubble on boxing cards around that time? Ringing any bells here?

I'm using this to clear out appreciated cards that i don't really appreciate, and to trade.

Thank you for all of the insights. It’s helpful to have perspectives from a recent span of time of what has happened from 2000 onward as to how the market for graded vintage has risen and fallen. Keep the insights coming!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by Pjere

Thank you for all of the insights. It’s helpful to have perspectives from a recent span of time of what has happened from 2000 onward as to how the market for graded vintage has risen and fallen. Keep the insights coming!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Good post adam