With the stakes rising, how worried should we be about high quality counterfeit cards

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Wimberleycardcollector

From my 30 plus years in graphic design, advertising and printing the technology and ability is there to create a perfect counterfeit vintage card. Vintage stocks can also be found. It's an expensive and time consuming project to faithfully recreate it but someone might try now that the stakes are getting higher. Cost has generally been the prohibitive factor in the past to make it worthwhile in my opinion.
I agree it's getting pretty scary with all the doctoring out there and fakes getting by grading companies. Makes me feel better that most of my nice vintage cards came from family collections or friends and were collected mostly before 1980. I'm extremely careful when buying vintage now especially since I collect raw cards.

I agree, I've been saying that a nearly undetectable fake is possible since about 1981. The only thing that prevented credible fakes of modern cards in the 80's was that most of the fakers did sloppy work.

Today there's so much more access to materials that I believe it's even more likely.

Even the ink formulations can probably be duplicated. The machine to figure out the exact composition costs less than many cards now.

[obcbobd]

I recall a year or two ago there it was proven that a large percentage of vintage autographed cards that were authenticated/graded had fake autographs. I had always thought that some day I would splurge big bucks on an autographed T206. Of course one graded/authenticated so I know its real. I no longer plan on making that splurge.

What happens if we reach a point that fakes get so good that people lose confidence in the grading companies to detect. Will people spend $100,000 on a card that might be a reprint?

[ASF123]

This one looks pretty darn good to me - none of the obvious telltale signs, and the print pattern looks like it *could* be legit if you were able to zoom in more closely/clearly.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1958-Topps-...EAAOSwGm1gNO8Y

Am I missing any dead giveaways about the card itself?

[steve B]

Originally Posted by ASF123

This one looks pretty darn good to me - none of the obvious telltale signs, and the print pattern looks like it *could* be legit if you were able to zoom in more closely/clearly.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1958-Topps-...EAAOSwGm1gNO8Y

Am I missing any dead giveaways about the card itself?

Only some that are only semi-obvious.

They're more obvious if you've handled a bunch of 58s, which is one of the reasons I usually recommend that anyone getting started buy a good sized lot of commons and spend some time with them before buying the expensive ones.
Even then, it helps to have the sort of brain that lets you see the details, and not everyone does. I can do it with cards, but usually not with autographs.

[mq711]

Originally Posted by steve B

I agree, I've been saying that a nearly undetectable fake is possible since about 1981. The only thing that prevented credible fakes of modern cards in the 80's was that most of the fakers did sloppy work.

Today there's so much more access to materials that I believe it's even more likely.

Even the ink formulations can probably be duplicated. The machine to figure out the exact composition costs less than many cards now.

I agree, a lot of counterfeit and altered cards are already graded and encapsulated never to be exposed to fresh air and further review again. And why would the owner subject their card to a review and loose a high grade or rare card. Even the talented folks on BO seem to determine alterations due to printing irregularities and not by detecting the actual adjustment.

The general hobby doesn’t seem to be concerned with the past scandals and the perpetrators seem to have dodged prosecution and continue to make hugh amounts of money. The only chance I see of anything changing is when an insurance company balks at paying a multimillion dollar claim and determines the cards in question were fake the whole time.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by mq711

I agree, a lot of counterfeit and altered cards are already graded and encapsulated never to be exposed to fresh air and further review again. And why would the owner subject their card to a review and loose a high grade or rare card. Even the talented folks on BO seem to determine alterations due to printing irregularities and not by detecting the actual adjustment.

The general hobby doesn’t seem to be concerned with the past scandals and the perpetrators seem to have dodged prosecution and continue to make hugh amounts of money. The only chance I see of anything changing is when an insurance company balks at paying a multimillion dollar claim and determines the cards in question were fake the whole time.

Extremely sad, but unfortunately very true.

Still holding out hope that the FBI is just being thorough and methodical in their investigation, rather than washing their hands of all this. The level of fraud and corruption is bigger than Mastro, Operation Bullpen, and the counterfeit signed T206 fiasco combined.

[Lila2222]

I've wondered and asked this very same thing. I'm surprised with the high dollars cards are selling for, someone hasn't taken the time to meticulously reproduce every detail in a fake so as to make it undetectable; instead it seems they make consistent visible mistakes when even an average graphic designer could edit an image/font to make it the exact measurements of the original. It would be a significant undertaking to exactly mimic the paper content, ink content, etc but it does seem doable? It almost seems an eventuality especially with technology and increasing market values.

[Fred]

Just curious, most are wondering about reprinting vintage cards. Wouldn't it be easier to reprint Jordan rookies that are newer and with less worries about finding a card stock to match.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Fred

Just curious, most are wondering about reprinting vintage cards. Wouldn't it be easier to reprint Jordan rookies that are newer and with less worries about finding a card stock to match.

I don’t know if it would be easier, but it would likely get more scrutiny than a good fake Goudey Ruth printed on 1930’s cardboard if the stock was right.

[drcy]

I believe that alternations are the concern, not undetectable counterfeits. There are always methods to identity reprints, even of modern cards, and undetectable reprints of Pre-War cards I don't believe is possible. Of course, errors and misidentifications will be made, but I think companies such as SGC and PSA will always be reliable as far as authentication goes.

And of course that's not to say there won't be detectable counterfeits that will be bought and sold. Bad counterfeits are bought today and have been for decades. That's not a matter of technological innovations.

The one area where a troublesome forgery of a Pre-War card(s) or similar memorabilia will happen is a brand new creation of something that didn't exist before (a fantast card). There a forger can use the Pre-War printing technology. As we all know, overprints or something like that can also be an issue, because someone's just adding a stamp or whatever to an authentic card.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Fred

Just curious, most are wondering about reprinting vintage cards. Wouldn't it be easier to reprint Jordan rookies that are newer and with less worries about finding a card stock to match.

It would depend on the set. In some ways, a modern card is harder. Separating the four colors on the picture and getting the exact halftone would be difficult.

Any of the single color sets would be fairly easy if someone was skilled. Same for the two color sets like E100 or T210

Strip cards...Like W516 Which are often wildly inconsistent would probably be the easiest.
48Leaf
R302

"Good enough" to pass current grading wouldn't be hard.

"Good enough" to be totally undetectable? would be hard.

As others have said, a totally "new" fantasy set... easy.