Printing More Money vs. High Card Prices

[chadeast]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have been wondering about a question I have so thought I would put it out here. If this gets political it will be locked. That is not what is intended. This affects both sides of the aisle.

Do yawl think all of the money being printed by the treasury, and the many trillions being doled out, has anything to do with card prices? It almost seems like there is too much money in the economy but I am far from an economist. A freaking 3.5 of this card just went for over 20k. So much for me getting an upgrade. LOL

And so much for me hoping to buy yours after said upgrade! Watching whats happened to the 33 Goudey Ruths over the past two months has been pretty amazing, & REA last night felt like the end of my dreams... for now. Big regrets on my part just missing out on two 144s in major auctions in December In the non-Ruth realm, i was able to fill in quite a few holes in my ‘33 Goudey set last night.

[Yoda]

I*have to believe that the value of the dollar will have to erode longterm. The decision way back in 1948 at the Bretton/ Woods Conference to make the dollar the world's reserve currency was probably fine until Nixon went off the backing of gold in 1971, and all bets were off. Quantitative easing and Covid relief packages have left the country flooded in liquidity and the repayment of all these bonds plus interest will reflate even more. Let's face it the Federal Reserve's actions is almost a Ponzi scheme in that new investors are needed to keep the party going. I don't think we are at the stage where the prices of oil and gold are soon to be denominated in Euros, Yuan or Yen but do feel the days of dollar dominance are fading.
All of that just means that there should be ample surpluses of money for those who have some to buy sports' cards. Right now it is a wild and heady environment for those those who can play the game. My God, 90K for the Goudey #53 Ruth in last night's REA auction just seems surreal

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by chadeast

And so much for me hoping to buy yours after said upgrade! Watching whats happened to the 33 Goudey Ruths over the past two months has been pretty amazing, & REA last night felt like the end of my dreams... for now. Big regrets on my part just missing out on two 144s in major auctions in December In the non-Ruth realm, i was able to fill in quite a few holes in my ‘33 Goudey set last night.

Awesome card Leon - that batting pose is a classic!

We all know the fed/fiscal stimulus is the main reason for where stocks and cards are valued. Conceptually, it's not about whose getting checks. It's about how the checks are recycled (velocity) back in our economy. Say the $600 is used to pay for groceries or Pokemon cards. That cash is used to support the business selling those goods, who in turn pay the employees to sell those good, who in turn... Stimulus check keep our economy "moving" and bridges us to we normalize (whatever that may be).

More people are employed. At the lower-end, less people are in needs to selling their assets (stocks/cards) to make ends meet, which creates the demand/supply imbalance towards MOAR. At the upper end, that economic activity is supporting the cashflows of our cashflow producing assets, supporting the inflated values of our income producing assets. Until risk assets are valued using an almost risk free rate.... which is not sustainable.

And in a world where there is no alternative (TINA) to stocks because the Fed has pushed us higher in the risk spectrum for yield (as evidence by a 3.5% yield for high yield index!), the marginal difference for yield is not worth it (picking up pennies in front of a steam roller), and more people start looking for alternative places to store their wealth, whether it be art, Gold, Bitcoin or cards. There is no coincidence today that Bitcoin is down ~10% and Gold is up ~2%. People that are running out of Bitcoin are not putting it into stocks, they already predisposed with an alternative mindset for why they are in Bitcoin in the first place. But where did they get this money???

I put an earlier pose, that the Fed increased its balance sheet from 3T in 2013, to 4T in 2018 and not 7.4+T..... so yes, that money is going somewhere.

This is separate from speculation, which is also in our industry and is cause for concern short term, but indifferent long term.

As it relates to the $90K ruth, one sale does not make the market. It sets the price, but only at that time. In times like this, if you can't axe the bid, then value your stuff based on an average of recent sales...

[dio]

And
PSA 3 52 topps mantle way off center for 90k

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by dio

And
PSA 3 52 topps mantle way off center for 90k

I believe those are asking prices? Have they sold for that anyway? Considering what some of this junk is selling for, that is still a bargain, IMHO.

A PSA 3 is a PSA 3 is a 3 is a 3. Still a nice collectible card with many fine attributes, even if "way off center". Eddie, as in Anal Eddie. You wouldn't want my off center 3 and I wouldn't sell it to you. Not even for 9-0.

[dio]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

I believe those are asking prices? Have they sold for that anyway? Considering what some of this junk is selling for, that is still a bargain, IMHO.

A PSA 3 is a PSA 3 is a 3 is a 3. Still a nice collectible card with many fine attributes, even if "way off center". Eddie, as in Anal Eddie. You wouldn't want my off center 3 and I wouldn't sell it to you. Not even for 9-0.

Agree, a 3 is a 3. I have no problem with off center cards, and i owned a few OC, i find great value for them.
that's the sold price, we'll see how heritage/goldin auction ends for these 52 mantle to get a reality of the current value

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by dio

Agree, a 3 is a 3. I have no problem with off center cards, and i owned a few OC, i find great value for them.
that's the sold price, we'll see how heritage/goldin auction ends for these 52 mantle to get a reality of the current value

LOL. You never know when the good old centering debate will re-enter the equation! I would agree. A lot of the current thinking on centering preferences is the result of collective bias.

[dio]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

LOL. You never know when the good old centering debate will re-enter the equation! I would agree. A lot of the current thinking on centering preferences is the result of collective bias.

A lot of times, ppl compare a centered card with off centered but with similar aspect surface/corner, of course it makes the centering card look way superior
If you compare a beat up center 2 vs a bold color decent corner 2, i'll take the off center one every time.

[jchcollins]

Current government policy with what is being printed and distributed related to COVID has an effect, but I don't think it's the cause. The rest of the bubble I believe will be cyclical as we've seen historically with cards since the 1980's, and for those of you that can remember - likely longer than that. What I don't know whether or not is / is not on the level is all these reports of investment portfolios getting interested in both modern and vintage cards. If that's really true, then it could be a game changer if not temporary.