Goldin Auctions - Card INDUSTRY thread...don't open if not interested -

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by todeen

I have no problem with new collectors. The fear for me is new collectors realizing they collected poorly, lost staggering amounts of money, and then leaving the hobby. Modern cards have high risk. RCs of Griffey, Thomas, Pujols, Ichiro, etc etc all tanked as they continued to age. Jeter and Trout are anomalies, and I don't think new collectors know that. It's a supply and demand thing. Acuna, Harper, Springer, etc etc will all fall in price eventually. If new investors enter the market for the wrong reasons, to make a quick dollar, than we are sitting on a bubble. I want every new collector to stay, but that is highly doubtful.

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It's inevitable that some collectors will miss on their speculation over who will be truly successful superstars of the sport. Everyone who buys a rookie card of a player in the first 5 years of their career know that, and are just hoping to get it right. If they spend $1500 on a Zion card and he turns out to be just terrific, not all world, those collectors KNOW they risk losing that money.
And it's not like they HAVE to spend $1500, there are plenty of $100 - $200 rc cards of his that can be had for the pure enjoyment of ownership.
The ride they get through the purchase, through following that athlete's career etc is the road they happily get on.
If they lose money most won't slit wrists over it, they'll just move to a fresh prospect.
In fact, if you follow modern stuff on blowout etc you'll see that most modern collectors understand this very well and continuously talk about diversification, eg being in a number of top athletes cards, and the successful cards carry the loss of the ones that don't pan out.
Because of the money involved, I think many are alot more savvy about it than those who went wax crazy in the 90's.

I see one thing that vintage collectors DON'T get about the appeal of modern collecting.
You get to see live, ride the bumps and highs, pull like crazy, for the guys you've bought cards of.
That's a tonne of fun, a tonne of discussion worthy time on similar hobby forums or social media, and a tonne of enjoyment of the cards in hand while that player is still making their career.

While vintage is safe in that no-one can lose a stat from their achievements or change history already written, it's more a third person and historical/intellectual pursuit.

See the difference when Ted or others post about a 52' Topps they collected concurrent to the players careers, versus an old judge of a beautifully posed player.

There's no reason to dump by the potential new collecting community if it's simply a part of their sporting captivation, and like all collectors - they'll win some and lose some with their purchases.
It's no different to how it's ever been. There's just more noughts involved.
And don't forget, many will eventually find their way to vintage, so your carefully assembled pieces of vintage card will only have greater appeal going forward.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

It's inevitable that some collectors will miss on their speculation over who will be truly successful superstars of the sport. Everyone who buys a rookie card of a player in the first 5 years of their career know that, and are just hoping to get it right.

I hope that is how it goes! I would love it if new collectors invest smartly. And I get pulling for the people you invest in. I saw Aaron Boone as a Level A Rookie League player, and I pulled for him and collected him. But I guess I'm just not overly optimistic for new collectors who feel this is a can't miss investment. MLB puts out their Top 100 list, and some of those Top 10 seem like can't miss prospects. But some years are entirely a bust when you reflect on the MLB 10 year anniversary prospect review lists. I guess from my personal view, I'm risk adverse. I don't like losing money, and I got burned out on modern.

I switched to vintage because I didn't have the room to store modern. I got married, moved into a small apartment, and I had no clue where to put my tens of thousands of cards. Most were worthless - 90 / 91 / 92 / 93. So I dumped them. That was 12+ years ago. And it's the same with modern cards today. You buy a box of cards, blasters, etc., and you gotta store them somehwere. If you buy boxes as a future investment, that takes up more space. 95% of them will be worthless after 1 year. What do you do with them at that point? I just see some most new collectors feeling overwhelmed after jumping into the deep end.

As a realist, pessimist, etc., I see card collecting like the religious "Parable of the Sower." One is planted on good ground, and two are planted on adverse ground.