CNN card story

[carlsonjok]

Here is my conundrum. I am 15 cards away from finishing 1955 Topps and 2 cards away from finishing 1968. I just cannot wrap my melon around sports cards being an investment. I mean, logically, yes I get it. But, with my collection, there is too much emotional involvement to view it as on par with stocks or annuities.

So, when I see the prices that the Clemente and Ryan rookie cards are selling for, I just shake my head and move on. Could I afford them at current prices? Yes, but I can't do it. That kind of money is significant enough to me that I prefer to put it into an asset I have absolutely no emotional attachment to.

So, to get back to my opening, I think I would be perfectly happy to fill those binder slots with reprints and call it a day. If the bubble bursts, great. But, if it doesn't, that is fine also.

[Johnny630]

I wonder how many people are considering taking profits and selling their collections aggressively into the strength ?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I wonder how many people are considering taking profits and selling their collections aggressively into the strength ?

I've seen a lot of people selling, just my observations from here, Facebook groups etc. Some opportunities are too good to pass up, especially if it's a card or cards you're not particularly attached to.

Certain cards hold certain memories for me. I have a Raw 53 topps Willie Mays. It would probably grade a 2, if I slabbed it, I could sell it for a decent chunk of money, probably to fund the next card that I want, but I remember buying that card with my own money, as a kid, on my first trip to Cooperstown. I couldn't possibly sell it. It means to much to me. I get Nostalgic for those sort of things.

I'm sure others feel the same way, but on the flipside I'm sure there are people out there, taking advantage of the status of the market. No wrong way to go about it!

[MattyC]

This is what happens in an entirely unregulated market. First come the fake sales, a tried and true scam in our hobby (either unpaid, or bought via proxy, as guys will happily pay a small percentage fee to change the optics and sales record on a card they own many copies of)...

Then people start buzzing: “You hear X card went for THIS MUCH?!” That creates legitimate Fear Of Missing Out among collectors— who now scramble to grab cards they’ve always liked in desperate hopes of staying ahead of the manipulation wave. Yet this behavior creates its own price spikes.

Alongside these elements comprising the perfect storm of today, you have sellers who witness these massive numbers and say, “Screw it.” So what do they do? En masse, they all raise their prices on cards that were fake sold. So now buyers’ eyes get “anchored” to the new optics, the new numbers.

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.” This is a separate dynamic from the aforementioned fake sellers who buy many copies of a card then fake sell it or buy it in various venues to get the higher price to “take” or stick.

And yes, there are some fractional ownership companies out there now cherry picking some higher end items. And perhaps there is even some truth to the notion that there are “funds” out there, but not major hedge funds with 5 billion under management— rather a few million in pooled funds that guys want to use to make some money. But overpaying grossly without regard for eye appeal or pricing history isn’t really what Ivy League money does to make money.

The guys who profit from this climate try to write off all this activity as “The Wall Street Hedge Fund Guys” coming in. Invoking the specter of Gordon Gekko and thinking we will shut our brains off. But the real Gordon Gekko’s and their firms don’t play with cards. They don’t wake up and go, “I’ve never been into cards before and don’t know anything about them, but I like sports so let me throw a ton of money at stuff.” That is not how smart, rich people shop. Bad actors out there don’t just want us to buy into this false caricature of “the rich man who has so much money, he doesn’t care, it’s a rounding error to him.” They want us to believe an army of this fictitious creature has descended upon the hobby.

Anyways, you brew all this together, and what we get is today. And to be sure, this storm does indeed generate some “real” sales.

Ultimately, a binary set of reactions emerges. We can be happy our cards are worth more— but we may find they are not, if we try to legitimately sell them. And many collectors love their collections and do not want to sell, which renders their new worth moot.

Or, we can realize that this mess is fundamentally toxic to the market and hobby, and to a collector its only real effect is rising prices for what you’d like to buy.

So pragmatically speaking, more money is coming out of collectors’ pockets. A collector wants to keep his collection and add to his collection, not sell his collection or pieces of it into a storm largely whipped up by unethical actors. I don’t know many guys shaking pom poms and jumping for joy because the value of cards they have zero intention to sell has allegedly gone up. They’re looking at the cost of what they’d still like to buy— and when they look into the cause(s) they see lots of shade in a market with zero regulation.

I’ve found a path to staying happy is simply continuing to enjoy my collection, and refusing to add cards that I feel have been swept up in the storm surge. I enjoyed my cards when they would have lost me money upon selling, and I enjoy them the same and not an iota more now that they might make me some loot if I sold. Because I’m not a seller. Nor am I some quasi-pseudo wannabe day trader mini Gordon Gekko who conflates his cards with stocks. I’m a baseball card collector. And I can choose to not be a buyer. Which renders the madness moot. When there’s a storm or bad weather I’ll hang inside and have a blast enjoying my cards, so it’s still all good.

[philo98]

Extremely well said. Completely agree.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by MattyC

This is what happens in an entirely unregulated market. First come the fake sales, a tried and true scam in our hobby (either unpaid, or bought via proxy, as guys will happily pay a small percentage fee to change the optics and sales record on a card they own many copies of)...

Then people start buzzing: “You hear X card went for THIS MUCH?!” That creates legitimate Fear Of Missing Out among collectors— who now scramble to grab cards they’ve always liked in desperate hopes of staying ahead of the manipulation wave. Yet this behavior creates its own price spikes.

Alongside these elements comprising the perfect storm of today, you have sellers who witness these massive numbers and say, “Screw it.” So what do they do? En masse, they all raise their prices on cards that were fake sold. So now buyers’ eyes get “anchored” to the new optics, the new numbers.

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.” This is a separate dynamic from the aforementioned fake sellers who buy many copies of a card then fake sell it or buy it in various venues to get the higher price to “take” or stick.

And yes, there are some fractional ownership companies out there now cherry picking some higher end items. And perhaps there is even some truth to the notion that there are “funds” out there, but not major hedge funds with 5 billion under management— rather a few million in pooled funds that guys want to use to make some money. But overpaying grossly without regard for eye appeal or pricing history isn’t really what Ivy League money does to make money.

The guys who profit from this climate try to write off all this activity as “The Wall Street Hedge Fund Guys” coming in. Invoking the specter of Gordon Gekko and thinking we will shut our brains off. But the real Gordon Gekko’s and their firms don’t play with cards. They don’t wake up and go, “I’ve never been into cards before and don’t know anything about them, but I like sports so let me throw a ton of money at stuff.” That is not how smart, rich people shop. Bad actors out there don’t just want us to buy into this false caricature of “the rich man who has so much money, he doesn’t care, it’s a rounding error to him.” They want us to believe an army of this fictitious creature has descended upon the hobby.

Anyways, you brew all this together, and what we get is today. And to be sure, this storm does indeed generate some “real” sales.

Ultimately, a binary set of reactions emerges. We can be happy our cards are worth more— but we may find they are not, if we try to legitimately sell them. And many collectors love their collections and do not want to sell, which renders their new worth moot.

Or, we can realize that this mess is fundamentally toxic to the market and hobby, and to a collector its only real effect is rising prices for what you’d like to buy.

So pragmatically speaking, more money is coming out of collectors’ pockets. A collector wants to keep his collection and add to his collection, not sell his collection or pieces of it into a storm largely whipped up by unethical actors. I don’t know many guys shaking pom poms and jumping for joy because the value of cards they have zero intention to sell has allegedly gone up. They’re looking at the cost of what they’d still like to buy— and when they look into the cause(s) they see lots of shade in a market with zero regulation.

I’ve found a path to staying happy is simply continuing to enjoy my collection, and refusing to add cards that I feel have been swept up in the storm surge. I enjoyed my cards when they would have lost me money upon selling, and I enjoy them the same and not an iota more now that they might make me some loot if I sold. Because I’m not a seller. Nor am I some quasi-pseudo wannabe day trader mini Gordon Gekko who conflates his cards with stocks. I’m a baseball card collector. And I can choose to not be a buyer. Which renders the madness moot. When there’s a storm or bad weather I’ll hang inside and have a blast enjoying my cards, so it’s still all good.

Brilliantly Put Brother...

The sad part is many are buying the BS and Don't Even Realize they’re being Taken for their Money and are considered suckers.

PT Barnum Had it Right.... there is a sucker born every minute

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by MattyC

This is what happens in an entirely unregulated market. First come the fake sales, a tried and true scam in our hobby (either unpaid, or bought via proxy, as guys will happily pay a small percentage fee to change the optics and sales record on a card they own many copies of)...

Then people start buzzing: “You hear X card went for THIS MUCH?!” That creates legitimate Fear Of Missing Out among collectors— who now scramble to grab cards they’ve always liked in desperate hopes of staying ahead of the manipulation wave. Yet this behavior creates its own price spikes.

Alongside these elements comprising the perfect storm of today, you have sellers who witness these massive numbers and say, “Screw it.” So what do they do? En masse, they all raise their prices on cards that were fake sold. So now buyers’ eyes get “anchored” to the new optics, the new numbers.

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.” This is a separate dynamic from the aforementioned fake sellers who buy many copies of a card then fake sell it or buy it in various venues to get the higher price to “take” or stick.

And yes, there are some fractional ownership companies out there now cherry picking some higher end items. And perhaps there is even some truth to the notion that there are “funds” out there, but not major hedge funds with 5 billion under management— rather a few million in pooled funds that guys want to use to make some money. But overpaying grossly without regard for eye appeal or pricing history isn’t really what Ivy League money does to make money.

The guys who profit from this climate try to write off all this activity as “The Wall Street Hedge Fund Guys” coming in. Invoking the specter of Gordon Gekko and thinking we will shut our brains off. But the real Gordon Gekko’s and their firms don’t play with cards. They don’t wake up and go, “I’ve never been into cards before and don’t know anything about them, but I like sports so let me throw a ton of money at stuff.” That is not how smart, rich people shop. Bad actors out there don’t just want us to buy into this false caricature of “the rich man who has so much money, he doesn’t care, it’s a rounding error to him.” They want us to believe an army of this fictitious creature has descended upon the hobby.

Anyways, you brew all this together, and what we get is today. And to be sure, this storm does indeed generate some “real” sales.

Ultimately, a binary set of reactions emerges. We can be happy our cards are worth more— but we may find they are not, if we try to legitimately sell them. And many collectors love their collections and do not want to sell, which renders their new worth moot.

Or, we can realize that this mess is fundamentally toxic to the market and hobby, and to a collector its only real effect is rising prices for what you’d like to buy.

So pragmatically speaking, more money is coming out of collectors’ pockets. A collector wants to keep his collection and add to his collection, not sell his collection or pieces of it into a storm largely whipped up by unethical actors. I don’t know many guys shaking pom poms and jumping for joy because the value of cards they have zero intention to sell has allegedly gone up. They’re looking at the cost of what they’d still like to buy— and when they look into the cause(s) they see lots of shade in a market with zero regulation.

I’ve found a path to staying happy is simply continuing to enjoy my collection, and refusing to add cards that I feel have been swept up in the storm surge. I enjoyed my cards when they would have lost me money upon selling, and I enjoy them the same and not an iota more now that they might make me some loot if I sold. Because I’m not a seller. Nor am I some quasi-pseudo wannabe day trader mini Gordon Gekko who conflates his cards with stocks. I’m a baseball card collector. And I can choose to not be a buyer. Which renders the madness moot. When there’s a storm or bad weather I’ll hang inside and have a blast enjoying my cards, so it’s still all good.

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be - across all auction houses and EBay, across all sports and must be hundreds if not thousands of different cards. That would have to be one hell of a level of organization.
That said, I agree there are multiple instances of manipulation and shilling and people just trying to create suckers out of many. I just choose not to believe that is the majority of what is going on.
If you look at the relative values of baseball cards compared to other more mature collectible categories, the values of the "top of the market" stuff hasn't been in the same league (pun intended). As I have shared in many prior posts - the card market ultimately is one of simple supply and demand economics. There is no question as to a finite supply -whether 3, 300, 3000, or 3000000. So demand and price are the 2 fluctuating variables here. I do believe the majority of the demand spike is real. Will it last? A lot better shot on low population items. 300+ PSA 10 Jordan rookies? That one would be making me nervous.
I believe some of the price spikes we are seeing will stick. I believe others will not. Time will tell.
Buy with your head, not over it and buy what you like!

[MattyC]

I agree much of what we are seeing today will stick; some waters may recede a bit, and other hitherto “slept on” cards may even wind up getting more deserved appreciation in terms of attention — and then further rising in value if collectors all feel that way and act accordingly with their wallets. Just to be clear, in my post I do not point to one type of manipulation as the cause for this current climate, and I also take into account and acknowledge how once Fear Of Missing Out is ignited by fake sales, that very powerful dynamic alone leads to price spikes across the vast sea of different cards. And those rising prices can certainly be viewed as legitimate, despite their initial spark. As to fake sales, there are myriad guys out there pulling fake sales with myriad cards; it’s not just one cadre by any means. It is when all these many ingredients come together that we get what is happening today.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I agree much of what we are seeing today will stick

So good question, and I did research on one card which was part of the initial explosion of modern basketball card prices.

The 2018-19 Panini Prizm Silver Prism (what Topps calls a base refractor) Luka Doncic RC. Initially it started selling in the hundreds when they were first getting graded. Then the "bass card/Prizm revolution" started happening and the cards shot up to the thousands fairly quickly. My thoughts at the time were that this is unsustainable, and that every new card graded would flood the market and the price would crater. That doesn't seem to be happening based on this graph. This specific card is being absorbed into the market at a rate of about 2 cards selling for $8K each EVERY DAY. There are ~2000 PSA 10s of the Luka Silver Prizm, and almost 2000 PSA 9s. The base chrome/Prizm of the same card has nearly 16K PSA 10 copies, and those are averaging $1200 each selling gobs every day.

That is mind-blowing, and it's only one example. There was a thread only last summer (mid-2020) about the $42K sale price for a PSA 10 1986 Fleer Jordan RC and was it too much? As we all know, they shot to $100K, then $200K, and the last couple have sold for $700K. But there are many less of them than there are Doncic Silver Prizms.

They fixed the PSA multi-lot sales and the graph is much more readable now

[todeen]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be...

I don't think there's any conspiracy about it. MattyC's post had more to do with factors, avenues of investing, and who the supposed "gurus" are. I do agree with the rest of your post about supply and demand. I would even go so far as to say that there could be 5000 PSA 10 Fleer Jordan RCs, and it's price would still be going bonkers due to his image and popularity.

MattyC's post reminded me of the supposed JFK Sr quote, "When I was getting stock advice from the shoe shine boy I decided it was time to sell." MattyC, IMO was spot on discussing factors. The avenues of investing in sports cards has grown significantly due to social media, youtube, and population reports (which are highly inaccurate and misleading). This has led to an influx of new investors in our hobby who are inexperienced, and an influx of snake oil salesmen. Savvy new collectors will learn for themselves. But there are many blind investors who are willing to forego common sense and stick with the self proclaimed "prophets." All of the workers at Enron knew better than to narrow their stock portfolios by investing only in company stock, but they did it anyway. And they got burned by "those in authority."

[rjackson44]

Im buying vintage hockey

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be - across all auction houses and EBay, across all sports and must be hundreds if not thousands of different cards. That would have to be one hell of a level of organization.
That said, I agree there are multiple instances of manipulation and shilling and people just trying to create suckers out of many. I just choose not to believe that is the majority of what is going on.
If you look at the relative values of baseball cards compared to other more mature collectible categories, the values of the "top of the market" stuff hasn't been in the same league (pun intended). As I have shared in many prior posts - the card market ultimately is one of simple supply and demand economics. There is no question as to a finite supply -whether 3, 300, 3000, or 3000000. So demand and price are the 2 fluctuating variables here. I do believe the majority of the demand spike is real. Will it last? A lot better shot on low population items. 300+ PSA 10 Jordan rookies? That one would be making me nervous.
I believe some of the price spikes we are seeing will stick. I believe others will not. Time will tell.
Buy with your head, not over it and buy what you like!

Also it's not just cards. Vintage movie posters are seeing some unreal prices recently as well.

[Exhibitman]

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by MattyC

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.”

This resonates with me. I prefer to investments where there is no emotional attachment. I invest in what I know and use the huge body of information in the public domain for research to increase my understanding.

Sports card investing is really investing in a personality. In some cases, like Babe Ruth, there is some safety because there is likely nothing about the personality that is not already known. But, too much of the hot sports cards are associated with extant people. And the investment could be wiped out in an instant when new information comes out. In an example from outside the sports card world, someone who "invested" in Kevin Spacey early in his career would have been real happy with his return in January 2017. But that "investment" would be worthless by the end of the same year.

[samosa4u]

"This is now part of our culture," Goldin said. "I wouldn't go anywhere near the word bubble."

[Exhibitman]

There are a whole lot of people who actually collect cards. The manipulation (if that is the case) doesn't really affect them because they've seen it before and they aren't being stampeded into crazy purchases. When it gets to be too much they stop or substitute something else.

I do agree that news stories notwithstanding, the idea that new wealth is going into cards whole-hog is silly. A few investors are targeting extremely expensive cards for securitization and a few 'influencers' (hate that word) are egging it on, but what they do has as much bearing on what most collectors do as the price of a new Ferrari does on the purchase of a minivan.

The one exception is 1980s and newer basketball, which is really being pushed by collectors from overseas. No one is chasing Earl Monroe cards in Germany, but the Dream Team guys and newer, absolutely. I have seen German card shows and know collectors in Europe, and the collectors there are crazy for soccer and American basketball cards. There is a hell of a foreign fan base from 30 years of NBA marketing and broadcasts and the integration of great foreign players (Ming, Nowitzki, Doncic, The Greek Freak, etc.) into the NBA. I don't have more than a few, so I am not cheerleading my cards, but I see great potential that is legitimate and divorced from bubble-stuff, and I don't mean the silliness with the super-duper 1/1 inserts that catch the headlines. What was an $800 Star Jordan a year ago may be legitimately a $3000 card because the competition from overseas collectors looking to add a Star Jordan card is real in the international sales era of eBay.

Are there shills and manipulators and games? Absolutely. But there were also a ton of cards that were legitimately undervalued.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by carlsonjok

Here is my conundrum. I am 15 cards away from finishing 1955 Topps and 2 cards away from finishing 1968. I just cannot wrap my melon around sports cards being an investment. I mean, logically, yes I get it. But, with my collection, there is too much emotional involvement to view it as on par with stocks or annuities.

So, when I see the prices that the Clemente and Ryan rookie cards are selling for, I just shake my head and move on. Could I afford them at current prices? Yes, but I can't do it. That kind of money is significant enough to me that I prefer to put it into an asset I have absolutely no emotional attachment to.

So, to get back to my opening, I think I would be perfectly happy to fill those binder slots with reprints and call it a day. If the bubble bursts, great. But, if it doesn't, that is fine also.

Reprints? What the big deal? That's a great set! I don't collect sets anymore, but I used to love that one. Get BACK OUT THERE AND BUY, BUY, BUY. Surely you could justify cards like these? How bad could it be to finish the thing up? You must have many hours into it?

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by carlsonjok

Here is my conundrum. I am 15 cards away from finishing 1955 Topps and 2 cards away from finishing 1968. I just cannot wrap my melon around sports cards being an investment. I mean, logically, yes I get it. But, with my collection, there is too much emotional involvement to view it as on par with stocks or annuities.

So, when I see the prices that the Clemente and Ryan rookie cards are selling for, I just shake my head and move on. Could I afford them at current prices? Yes, but I can't do it. That kind of money is significant enough to me that I prefer to put it into an asset I have absolutely no emotional attachment to.

So, to get back to my opening, I think I would be perfectly happy to fill those binder slots with reprints and call it a day. If the bubble bursts, great. But, if it doesn't, that is fine also.

You said this so well. There are three or four cards that I had been watching since 2019 waiting for nice versions that I missed out on when things took off in 2020. Yes, I can afford them now. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact we have all been collecting for so many years, that the card that was $400 two to years ago is now $3000. Just hard for me to fork over that kind of money when I know what it was two years ago. Even though I can afford it. And I agree, I just don’t think of these as investments. I know they are, but when you’ve been collecting for 30 years, it’s hard to think that way.