What is happening with baseball card prices?

[Exhibitman]

The vast majority of sales are genuine. Look at all the cards flowing through the auction houses: does anyone really believe that they are not selling the cards? I've done legal work for a few of them going after non-paying bidders. They take it very seriously and on high dollar cards will sue for their vig. I also know quite a few of the buyers and they are actual collectors who are tickled pink over getting their dream cards.

All that said, there is a great deal of speculation going on right now, lots of wannabe flippers. They are going to get their wings clipped badly when the corrections start, unless they have the discipline to set a specific target and sell when it gets there as the prices go up. I personally do not find this M.O. to be compelling, mainly because the transactional costs are so large (10% on up) for anything except a private sale and selling can be a PITA.

All these macro discussions about why remind me of an interview I heard once with Mark Cuban. He was asked about some sort of tax policy and scoffed at its effect on investment: he said that no one ever invests in a company or product based on taxes, they do it to make money and if there is a tax break it is ancillary to the main considerations. It's all BS too: no one 'knows' why things are as they are, just like none of the news organizations 'know' why the market went up or down on any given day. Individual decisionmaking does not aggregate into a collective consciousness, only into a collective outcome. Anyone making macroeconomic prognostications about why Willie Mays cards are going up or down is pulling it out of his ass, and more likely than not is coming to his opinions based on his personal biases and experiences. Of course the 1952 Topps Mantle is worth a fortune...if I own one of the MOFOs. Otherwise, it is overvalued and part of a bubble.

[jchcollins]

I would disagree that shilling, shenanigans, or skullduggery on the whole is responsible for the upswing of the market that started in 2020. Sure, it exists in pockets - but to take the entire market up? It would have to be so prevalent that you would be hearing a lot more legit stories of people caught doing such things.

Look at PSA's Auction Prices Realized page for some of the more popular vintage cards. It's a good mix, and (at least historically) while it's not inclusive of every single sale, it's a good cross section of what is sold in different places and includes a lot of eBay listings. A lot of people look at sites like that and VCP, and it would probably be pretty easy to string together evidence on multiple sellers who are simply reporting bad data and relisting cards, were that truly happening en masse. It isn't.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I would disagree that shilling, shenanigans, or skullduggery on the whole is responsible for the upswing of the market that started in 2020. Sure, it exists in pockets - but to take the entire market up? It would have to be so prevalent that you would be hearing a lot more legit stories of people caught doing such things.

Look at PSA's Auction Prices Realized page for some of the more popular vintage cards. It's a good mix, and (at least historically) while it's not inclusive of every single sale, it's a good cross section of what is sold in different places and includes a lot of eBay listings. A lot of people look at sites like that and VCP, and it would probably be pretty easy to string together evidence on multiple sellers who are simply reporting bad data and relisting cards, were that truly happening en masse. It isn't.

What I do to rationalize the prices is to cut and paste the PSA sales data and then delete all of the PWCC sales from the run. I think that gives you a better idea of what is really happening across the board.

[Exhibitman]

If we don't have people taking a week off work and traveling to CHI for the National this summer I think it will drive prices still higher. It costs me about $1500-$2000 to attend a National, give or take, and I curtail my purchases during the lead-up to the show to build my bankroll for the show. If the show is called off, I have no travel expenses, my show bankroll is unnecessary, and the frustration of not going will generate some 'consolation' purchases too.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

If we don't have people taking a week off work and traveling to CHI for the National this summer I think it will drive prices still higher. It costs me about $1500-$2000 to attend a National, give or take, and I curtail my purchases during the lead-up to the show to build my bankroll for the show. If the show is called off, I have no travel expenses, my show bankroll is unnecessary, and the frustration of not going will generate some 'consolation' purchases too.

I've been saying something akin to this for a while. And it's something that until you crunch the numbers you don't realize. Now while I can't speak for the overwhelming majority of America, I can speak for myself. Since the Pandemic started I have not:

Purchased Any New Clothes: No point If I'm not really going anywhere
Booked any Vacations
attended any Games/Concerts
Gone to a Casino

I'd say in total, from all of that I have probably saved, conservatively, $5000. Where did that money go? Cards. In the past calendar year I added 4 more Mantle's to my collection that I wouldn't normally have been able to add. Some went into the bank as well. My point being, People that were/are making a hell of a lot more than me are and continue to be in the same predicament. Our Hobby does not rely on traveling, It doesn't require us to going to an exotic destination, or to an arena/venue. We can all sit in the comfort of our homes, in our Pajamas, look at the cards we want, at anytime, and spend money on them because quite simply we have nothing else to do.

Normalcy will return, people will leave the Hobby, some will stay for sure, and prices will lower. Will we see Pre-Pandemic Prices? Probably Not. But we won't have to worry about a card that we lost at auction last week being listed for 4x its price this week.

[packs]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I would disagree that shilling, shenanigans, or skullduggery on the whole is responsible for the upswing of the market that started in 2020. Sure, it exists in pockets - but to take the entire market up? It would have to be so prevalent that you would be hearing a lot more legit stories of people caught doing such things.

Look at PSA's Auction Prices Realized page for some of the more popular vintage cards. It's a good mix, and (at least historically) while it's not inclusive of every single sale, it's a good cross section of what is sold in different places and includes a lot of eBay listings. A lot of people look at sites like that and VCP, and it would probably be pretty easy to string together evidence on multiple sellers who are simply reporting bad data and relisting cards, were that truly happening en masse. It isn't.

Who said it's happening en masse? And why would it have to? There are two sellers that this board has created thread after thread about for YEARS. So, yes, I agree, it takes time to do this. But that time has been passing all along. These sellers are responsible for thousands of listings every month. Those PSA sales, those VCP sales, how closely are you scrutinizing the seller of the item? I bet you'll find a couple names pretty frequently.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by packs

Who said it's happening en masse? And why would it have to? There are two sellers that this board has created thread after thread about for YEARS. So, yes, I agree, it takes time to do this. But that time has been passing all along. These sellers are responsible for thousands of listings every month. Those PSA sales, those VCP sales, how closely are you scrutinizing the seller of the item? I bet you'll find a couple names pretty frequently.

So you believe that the market is being manipulated, and prices are moving on the whole only because of a few sellers? OK.

Then do as Adam suggested, and take PWCC, Probstein, and I don’t know Dean‘s maybe out of those sales results and re-baseline everything. If your new averages for particular cards come out way lower, then yes a few sellers could theoretically be doing this, but as to the sales themselves, then to me that would insinuate “en masse” as to their volumes.

I don’t buy it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[packs]

That's not how that would work. You would have to go back to pre-sale times when the prices of cards weren't being manipulated by auctions from sellers who bid their own cards up or allow consignors to bid on their own cards.

Like I said, if I consign a card, let's say a T206 Green Cobb, and I bid that card up to $8,000, but it doesn't actually sell to anybody, the next guy with the same card is going to judge it's value to be $8,000 because they think my cards sold for that.

It's a process that takes a long time. But that time has already passed.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by packs

That's not how that would work. You would have to go back to pre-sale times when the prices of cards weren't being manipulated by auctions from sellers who bid their own cards up or allow consignors to bid on their own cards.

Like I said, if I consign a card, let's say a T206 Green Cobb, and I bid that card up to $8,000, but it doesn't actually sell to anybody, the next guy with the same card is going to judge it's value to be $8,000 because they think my cards sold for that.

It's a process that takes a long time. But that time has already passed.

I'm talking about the current state of prices. You seem to be suggesting some kind of longer term card price manipulation scheme which seems to happen more often than not in whatever markets you would draw your sales data from. Again, I just don't buy that. It's possible that it happens in some cases, but across the board would be a stretch and difficult to prove. I also don't believe that the influence of a PWCC encourages one-off collectors on a budget to suddenly re-adjust values in their minds to the top of the scale, just because of a few sales that may not have been totally on the level.

[dio]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

So you believe that the market is being manipulated, and prices are moving on the whole only because of a few sellers? OK.

Then do as Adam suggested, and take PWCC, Probstein, and I don’t know Dean‘s maybe out of those sales results and re-baseline everything. If your new averages for particular cards come out way lower, then yes a few sellers could theoretically be doing this, but as to the sales themselves, then to me that would insinuate “en masse” as to their volumes.

I don’t buy it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't agree price move just because of few seller, more like covid period brings in a LOT of collector, especially the rich, look at the dude bought the 5.2 mil mantle, he's showing off everywhere, on tv, youtube etc... and all his 100 million buck buddies will want to do the same , it just have attracted the rich people into this hobby

There's just a huge demand for sportscard, especially the good ones
just look at the WTB in our BST section, never seen this before.
It is just Hot market, like tesla stocks, like bitcoin. and this hobby is addictive, and American now loves to showoff @ instagram, fb.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by dio

I don't agree price move just because of few seller, more like covid period brings in a LOT of collector, especially the rich, look at the dude bought the 5.2 mil mantle, he's showing off everywhere, on tv, youtube etc... and all his 100 million buck buddies will want to do the same , it just have attracted the rich people into this hobby

There's just a huge demand for sportscard, especially the good ones
just look at the WTB in our BST section, never seen this before.
It is just Hot market, like tesla stocks, like bitcoin. and this hobby is addictive, and American now loves to showoff @ instagram, fb.

Agreed that additional "rich" speculation and other competing demands for collector dollars that are suddenly now not there are likely way more responsible for the boom than massive, covert price manipulation by big dealers and auction houses.

[Exhibitman]

I've been selling into this wave for months and it is real. There are certainly some bogus transactions out there but I've been cleaning house on stuff I never thought I could sell except at massive discounts. My last AH consignment closed in January and the result exceeded my expectations by nearly 100%.

As for the $1200, $2000, or whatever, for someone making a good enough living to responsibly and regularly buy four-figure cards it is a financial blip. I am not wealthy and definitely not in a unique financial position, and I am telling you that the cards I bought in this horrible year had nothing to do with a stimulus check. I didn't even qualify to get one. For me it was not paying for all of the other leisure activities. I saved far more than $1200 just not going out to dinner over the last year and a multiple of that not going on any of the vacations or trips we planned. Hell, dinner and show for my wife and me is $300 or more, and a week in HI will cost us $5K. I go to a couple of concerts every summer. In 2019 summer I went to see Heart and Joan Jett (great show, BTW) with decent, not great, seats at the Hollywood Bowl and between that and dinner I dropped over $400. My floor seats for Green Day in 2017 plus dinner were over $400 for the pair:



And worth every dime!



My wife's salary got cut 20% at the start of this and we didn't even feel it because our spending dropped 35%. No dinners out, no maid, no trips, terminated gym memberships, no wardrobe since we are not going to formal offices, no commute expenses, no food at work costs, etc. That's where the money is. Plus, WTF else am I going to do with it, put it into the bank at 0.1%?

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Anyone making macroeconomic prognostications about why Willie Mays cards are going up or down is pulling it out of his ass, and more likely than not is coming to his opinions based on his personal biases and experiences. Of course the 1952 Topps Mantle is worth a fortune...if I own one of the MOFOs. Otherwise, it is overvalued and part of a bubble.

I just joined an '86 Fleer hoops FB group, and this effect is front and center.

The cards skyrocket forever, and then a week without increases (or one particular example dropping back a little) and chicken littles come out of the woodwork everywhere. Often data mining to find an outlier that makes their point even more valid. In this case, taking a PSA 8 Jordan sale from PWCC with one of those letter superiority designations (not to mention it was one the best 8s I'd ever seen, and perfectly centered). And using that as the price point of the "high".

And sure, they could be right about this being the peak. But that doesn't change how strong the personal biases are when evaluating the marketplace