What is happening with baseball card prices?

[Tyruscobb]

If you think this is a bubble, and are calling a top (or close to it), then liquidate everything. Earmark the money for cards. Then, when the market declines, you can buy back all your old cards, plus many more, with the same money. Your collection will come out ahead in the long-run. However, calling a top is hard. I think it was Warren Buffet that said he would love just to be able to get within 20% of predicting a top and bottom.

I’m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

[campyfan39]

I am in agreement with this in that card budgets will drop as people return to vacations, movies and concerts etc.

One other aspect though is people like me who have taken advantage of the spike and sold a few big cards that I wasn't too connected to. I now have a bigger card budget than in the recent past. So I think some of it will continue based on people like me liquidating only to infuse it right back in.

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

If you think this is a bubble, and are calling a top (or close to it), then liquidate everything. Earmark the money for cards. Then, when the market declines, you can buy back all your old cards, plus many more, with the same money. Your collection will come out ahead in the long-run. However, calling a top is hard. I think it was Warren Buffet that said he would love just to be able to get within 20% of predicting a top and bottom.

I’m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by campyfan39

I am in agreement with this in that card budgets will drop as people return to vacations, movies and concerts etc.

One other aspect though is people like me who have taken advantage of the spike and sold a few big cards that I wasn't too connected to. I now have a bigger card budget than in the recent past. So I think some of it will continue based on people like me liquidating only to infuse it right back in.

Two economic forces will concurrently operate to push down prices at some point.

First, as previously mentioned, the demand for cards will drop when Covid eases up. People will eventually return to spending their hard-earned money on vacations, concerts, experiences, etc. Their laser-focused entertainment budgets, which are currently just on cards, will splinter into many different directions.

Secondly, when Covid eases up, some collectors, who will now have more entertainment options, will grow bored and exit the hobby. They will no longer have the money or desire to continue collecting cardboard. When the drop in demand starts sending prices down, these collectors will panic and rush to sell their cards to lock in decent profits/prices. This will in turn increase the supply for sale..

Decreased demand and increased supply is bad news for prices, but good news for us true collectors that buy and hold. Although I enjoy seeing my collection’s value increase, it is moot because I’m not selling. The increased value is simply on paper and will remain there. I’m tired of being priced out of the cards that I want. I simply refuse to pay 3x last January’s prices for cards on my wish list.

[Republicaninmass]

I can imagine if oen could somehow see the "order flow"

the selling side would outnumber the buying side by a high margin. There is a Goldin auction every month with millions of dollars of cards being..ahem "SOLD"

1952 topps joe black PSA 2 did 400 last night, right

[nwfsteve]

I've lurked here for long enough and never felt the need to post until now.

I'm down to maybe a total of 50-60 cards to knock off 66T, 64 Philly FB, 67 T FB, and a handful of others and it's killing me to think I can't do it unless I spend $250 on a Horace Clarke rookie card - which I can afford but can't do on principle.

That causes me to think about selling my old sets or cashing in on my PSA 6 Rose rookie. But then I wouldn't have those cards anymore. This conundrum bothers me every day and I guess waiting it out is the only answer.

[Harliduck]

Originally Posted by nwfsteve

I've lurked here for long enough and never felt the need to post until now.

I'm down to maybe a total of 50-60 cards to knock off 66T, 64 Philly FB, 67 T FB, and a handful of others and it's killing me to think I can't do it unless I spend $250 on a Horace Clarke rookie card - which I can afford but can't do on principle.

That causes me to think about selling my old sets or cashing in on my PSA 6 Rose rookie. But then I wouldn't have those cards anymore. This conundrum bothers me every day and I guess waiting it out is the only answer.

Glad I have my Horace...wow...just looked, Deans Cards has the cheapest example?? WTF? That says it all right there...wow.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

I can imagine if oen could somehow see the "order flow"

the selling side would outnumber the buying side by a high margin. There is a Goldin auction every month with millions of dollars of cards being..ahem "SOLD"

1952 topps joe black PSA 2 did 400 last night, right

And it was an awful 2.

But to be fair, his other high numbers did not get strong prices

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

And it was an awful 2.

But to be fair, his other high numbers did not get strong prices

hey dont you have one John! lol

I just cant believe the Jackie prices, If my highs were complete (sans mick and mathews) I'd list the whole dam lot and see if these "buyers" are really paying this kind of money for cards

[Seven]

I think they'll end up going higher as well. At least in the short term. A new stimulus check is on the horizon.

[mortimer brewster]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I’m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

Agreed, also when financial publications stop touting cards as investments.

I basically took the money I was going to spend on Hotels and transportation to the National last August and Comic Con in October and put thee money in a savings account. I'm just waiting for the speculators to exit and i'll take this money (plus the .001 percent interest) and resume finishing my vintage sets.

I realize prices will always be strong for Hi Grade material, but there is no reason why collector grade EXMT and lower should remain at ridiculous levels once everyone returns to their normal activities.

[Exhibitman]

If anyone really thinks this is a bubble about to burst, where are the sellers? Inventory of good stuff is down to nothing. Some cards I've been looking for lately have no examples for sale, or no new ones.

[dio]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

If anyone really thinks this is a bubble about to burst, where are the sellers? Inventory of good stuff is down to nothing. Some cards I've been looking for lately have no examples for sale, or no new ones.

This hobby is addictive, new collectors came in during covid period. some might left, but i bet many will continue. And these really rich people are buying it, for fun + SHOWOFF

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by dio

SHOWOFF

Absolutely this. I'm only back in the hobby for several months, but it's pretty obvious to me that for a lot of people, it's not really about cards at all - it's just another (pardon my French) d***-measuring contest to see who has the rarest, the mintiest, the most expensive, etc.

[dio]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Absolutely this. I'm only back in the hobby for several months, but it's pretty obvious to me that for a lot of people, it's not really about cards at all - it's just another (pardon my French) d***-measuring contest to see who has the rarest, the mintiest, the most expensive, etc.

Those guys are making way too much money, Ferrari is not as show off as 1/1 mahomes or 52 mantle psa 9. driving that you won't be interviewing by media , on the news. but buying a psa 9 52 mantle your face is all over the media. Every media is looking to interview you. when you have a couple thousand of these ppl , things are not coming back down. To them, these are tiny portion of their portfolio, it's cheaper compare to own than a ferrari for 15 years(including maintenance) probably holds or increase value

[Republicaninmass]

And they wont care when it is worth far less, if they need to liquidate or just move on to something else

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

If anyone really thinks this is a bubble about to burst, where are the sellers? Inventory of good stuff is down to nothing. Some cards I've been looking for lately have no examples for sale, or no new ones.

I’ve noticed this too. Nothing showing up on eBay and also helps explain the numerous WTB threads here.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I’ve noticed this too. Nothing showing up on eBay and also helps explain the numerous WTB threads here.

Fear of leaving money on the table is keeping cards off eBay. People don't want to sell goods cards and then see them sell for double the next day.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by rats60

Fear of leaving money on the table is keeping cards off eBay. People don't want to sell goods cards and then see them sell for double the next day.

Guess they all must be going to goldin

[Exhibitman]

Last year I sold some basketball cards that were going absolutely ape-shit crazy. I sold them on the way up, far above what I paid but well below where they peaked. I replaced them with lower grade examples for a tiny fraction of the price. Haven't regretted it a bit. Sometimes you just have to decide that this % of gain is enough and take the profit. I do not profess to know where that number is, but it seems to me that when inventory goes nearly to zero it is a good time to consider cashing out. For a lot of the cards that have soared in price and that have zero inventory, it might be worthwhile to list what you have at 2x the last sale price and see what happens. I am very tempted to do so.

[Tere1071]

Originally Posted by rats60

Fear of leaving money on the table is keeping cards off eBay. People don't want to sell goods cards and then see them sell for double the next day.

In my case, almost all of my purchases come from eBay because the cards I need are there. I post wanting to purchase upgrades for my 53 Bowman color set on Net54 for two reasons: many sellers on eBay over-grade their cards and the amount that I've been paying in taxes on my purchases has added significantly to the cost of the cards I have purchased. I also look to collect through a like-minded community rather than the open market as it's enjoyable to read the multiple perspectives regarding our hobby.

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I’ve noticed this too. Nothing showing up on eBay and also helps explain the numerous WTB threads here.

Hell, even what I do - trolling around for reasonably priced mid-grade raw HOF cards - seems to be getting harder in the past several days.