Baseball card bubble?

[Exhibitman]

I seriously doubt that investment funds are driving the prices of vg Jackie Robinson cards. Just lots of new collectors, returning collectors, and long-time collectors, all with time and money on their hands, and in the latter case, a good dose of FOMO-better-get-it-now-before-it-goes-up-more. And these virtual communities and chat boards and blogs add to the momentum by allowing us some sorely-needed social contact in these days of isolation and boredom.

The real question is whether the bubble will pop or deflate, and to what extent. I don't see prices dropping back to pre-escalation levels on many cards. That has never been the case, as anyone who has waited 40 years for a price break on a 1952 Topps Mantle will tell you. Way I figure it is that a $900 card in 2019 that is $5,000 today may see $3,000 again but will go back up again unless some sort of catastrophe wrecks the overall economy for years. Baseball cards I sold for 'ridiculous' prices a few years ago are at or below market now. I'm not sorry I sold, just aware that this is cyclical with prices generally trending up over the years on quality materials. Similarly, I have very few quality baseball cards that I am sorry I 'overpaid' to get a few years ago.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I seriously doubt that investment funds are driving the prices of vg Jackie Robinson cards. Just lots of new collectors, returning collectors, and long-time collectors, all with time and money on their hands, and in the latter case, a good dose of FOMO-better-get-it-now-before-it-goes-up-more. And these virtual communities and chat boards and blogs add to the momentum by allowing us some sorely-needed social contact in these days of isolation and boredom.

The real question is whether the bubble will pop or deflate, and to what extent. I don't see prices dropping back to pre-escalation levels on many cards. That has never been the case, as anyone who has waited 40 years for a price break on a 1952 Topps Mantle will tell you. Way I figure it is that a $900 card in 2019 that is $5,000 today may see $3,000 again but will go back up again unless some sort of catastrophe wrecks the overall economy for years. Baseball cards I sold for 'ridiculous' prices a few years ago are at or below market now. I'm not sorry I sold, just aware that this is cyclical with prices generally trending up over the years on quality materials. Similarly, I have very few quality baseball cards that I am sorry I 'overpaid' to get a few years ago.

Good take. There is a similar debate going on over on the Blowout forums right now, but there people seem to think that it's mostly flippers / speculators over and above collectors. I'd like to believe things more the way you describe them.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Good take. There is a similar debate going on over on the Blowout forums right now, but there people seem to think that it's mostly flippers / speculators over and above collectors. I'd like to believe things more the way you describe them.

I think the answer probably sits between the two. Both flippers and new collectors. Each forum speaking to what they know. BO seems like there are way more pumpers over there. This Forum is definitely collector focused.

[Schlesinj]

Nothing new to add, but interesting to see Bill Simmons and his podcast network are making a card podcast. Social media will keep things going for a while. FOMO is a big cause.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by schlesinj

nothing new to add, but interesting to see bill simmons and his podcast network are making a card podcast. Social media will keep things going for a while. Foma is a big cause.

foma?

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

foma?

I think he meant FOMO (fear of missing out).