Baseball card bubble?

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by todeen

However, if the $2000 stimulus checks pass, card prices are going to go wacko again.

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I think there is still some debate about if there is another round whether the checks will be $1400 or $2000 per person AND it may not go to everyone the way the previous rounds did. But if everyone gets an extra 2K, there is good reason to believe today's "high prices" will be tomorrow bargains.

Rich

BTW -= Topps is not really raising the prices of the boxes of the cards you see at the big box stores but reducing the quantity within. Think of the last couple of Topps products in those stores as something similar to the candy bar size reduction process. That might also stop some of the retail explosions.

[jchcollins]

Biden is also now floating the idea of $3k stimulus checks per child. So if that happens a lot of kids are probably getting vintage baseball cards...

[mferronibc]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

I think there is still some debate about if there is another round whether the checks will be $1400 or $2000 per person AND it may not go to everyone the way the previous rounds did. But if everyone gets an extra 2K, there is good reason to believe today's "high prices" will be tomorrow bargains.

I promise I don't have any political underpinnings to this just curiosity. I don't really understand why stimulus checks drive the card market. 1) I would imagine the people capable of dropping many hundreds/thousands of dollars on cards even before the pandemic (the real drivers of the bubble right now) make way too much money to qualify for a check. 2) I realize I have no bearing on telling people how to spend their money but isn't the intent of stimulus checks now to help people struggling to pay rent, bills, put food on the table? If that many people use $600-2000 instantly to buy baseball cards when they have all of those expenses what does that say about people's spending choices? (regardless of any trickle down effect to the overall economy)

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by mferronibc

I promise I don't have any political underpinnings to this just curiosity. I don't really understand why stimulus checks drive the card market. 1) I would imagine the people capable of dropping many hundreds/thousands of dollars on cards even before the pandemic (the real drivers of the bubble right now) make way too much money to qualify for a check. 2) I realize I have no bearing on telling people how to spend their money but isn't the intent of stimulus checks now to help people struggling to pay rent, bills, put food on the table? If that many people use $600-2000 instantly to buy baseball cards when they have all of those expenses what does that say about people's spending choices? (regardless of any trickle down effect to the overall economy)

In very simple terms (and because this is a generality this does not apply to everyone in the same way), many people who did not need money had

1) More time on their hands as either having time off from work or transitioning to Work From Home (WFH)

2) Had their old cards in the closet and realized what fun they had as kids during the boom market and went back

3) Realized the market was in an upswing and people like getting into an up market.

4) Was BORED with watching a screen all day for work and liked a distraction.

5) Without the hobby stores being open, the big box stores you went to for groceries or other items were also the primary place to purchase new boxes. Yep, more competition for a growing up sells more cards.

I'm sure there are more but these are pretty good reasons

Rich

[Exhibitman]

I seriously doubt that investment funds are driving the prices of vg Jackie Robinson cards. Just lots of new collectors, returning collectors, and long-time collectors, all with time and money on their hands, and in the latter case, a good dose of FOMO-better-get-it-now-before-it-goes-up-more. And these virtual communities and chat boards and blogs add to the momentum by allowing us some sorely-needed social contact in these days of isolation and boredom.

The real question is whether the bubble will pop or deflate, and to what extent. I don't see prices dropping back to pre-escalation levels on many cards. That has never been the case, as anyone who has waited 40 years for a price break on a 1952 Topps Mantle will tell you. Way I figure it is that a $900 card in 2019 that is $5,000 today may see $3,000 again but will go back up again unless some sort of catastrophe wrecks the overall economy for years. Baseball cards I sold for 'ridiculous' prices a few years ago are at or below market now. I'm not sorry I sold, just aware that this is cyclical with prices generally trending up over the years on quality materials. Similarly, I have very few quality baseball cards that I am sorry I 'overpaid' to get a few years ago.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I seriously doubt that investment funds are driving the prices of vg Jackie Robinson cards. Just lots of new collectors, returning collectors, and long-time collectors, all with time and money on their hands, and in the latter case, a good dose of FOMO-better-get-it-now-before-it-goes-up-more. And these virtual communities and chat boards and blogs add to the momentum by allowing us some sorely-needed social contact in these days of isolation and boredom.

The real question is whether the bubble will pop or deflate, and to what extent. I don't see prices dropping back to pre-escalation levels on many cards. That has never been the case, as anyone who has waited 40 years for a price break on a 1952 Topps Mantle will tell you. Way I figure it is that a $900 card in 2019 that is $5,000 today may see $3,000 again but will go back up again unless some sort of catastrophe wrecks the overall economy for years. Baseball cards I sold for 'ridiculous' prices a few years ago are at or below market now. I'm not sorry I sold, just aware that this is cyclical with prices generally trending up over the years on quality materials. Similarly, I have very few quality baseball cards that I am sorry I 'overpaid' to get a few years ago.

Good take. There is a similar debate going on over on the Blowout forums right now, but there people seem to think that it's mostly flippers / speculators over and above collectors. I'd like to believe things more the way you describe them.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Good take. There is a similar debate going on over on the Blowout forums right now, but there people seem to think that it's mostly flippers / speculators over and above collectors. I'd like to believe things more the way you describe them.

I think the answer probably sits between the two. Both flippers and new collectors. Each forum speaking to what they know. BO seems like there are way more pumpers over there. This Forum is definitely collector focused.

[Schlesinj]

Nothing new to add, but interesting to see Bill Simmons and his podcast network are making a card podcast. Social media will keep things going for a while. FOMO is a big cause.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

In very simple terms (and because this is a generality this does not apply to everyone in the same way), many people who did not need money had....

Rich

A lot of the first two rounds of stimulus checks ended up in various investments - including the stock market. Many stocks and bonds require XXXX number of dollars. When that magically showed up in the spring, people could buy into Apple, Tesla, Amazon....you name it. Investors are already warning a third round of stimulus, worth $2000 might be detrimental to the stock market. I think that's baloney, because people want to buy low, but we'll see. At least for me it would help my retirement funds which work on averages.

People may have other bills to pay, but they also were looking ahead to their future. And I always think that's a good thing.

[Exhibitman]

My wife and I had a meeting with our financial planner this afternoon and I chided him that my performance with cards was far outstripping his with stocks.