PSA 9 52 Topps Mantle sells for $5.2M

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by Fred

Here's a thought -

To continue a hobby there has to be new "hobbyists" that also want to collect these cards that are now becoming less and less accessible to the average person because of price escalation.

Fans of the game will just say NO to collecting cards because how much fun is there trying to collect stuff that you can't afford and can only have a few examples.

At some point the only people that will be buying expensive cards are investors that usually have a short attention span. Then when those investors get bored or see the next investment opportunity they'll be off to investing in graded Pez dispensers. Someone is going to be left holding the bag because the smart investors will have already bailed out in time to ensure they're not left holding the $5M Mantle. Sadly the collector/hobbyists that "invested" in the cards will be crying about how much they lost when the card bubble burst.

Now it's time for someone else to write a quick paragraph on how these investors retired early because they invested wisely in cardboard images and how these values will continue to rise and entice more people into buying cardboard instead of using it as a shelter to sleep in.

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

One thing about price momentum... can go on for a very long time, especially if the fed makes it so there are no longer any economic cycles to create forced sales and temper pricing. Add in the fact that you see inflation expectations finally inflecting, and you know that nominal rates are capped (fed + you can’t raise rates at these debt levels else you bankrupt us), reflecting compression into negative real rates, and you get an explosion in the price of non yielding alternative stores of value, like art, cards, gold and Bitcoin.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

One thing about price momentum... can go on for a very long time, especially if the fed makes it so there are no longer any economic cycles to create forced sales and temper pricing. Add in the fact that you see inflation expectations finally inflecting, and you know that nominal rates are capped (fed + you can’t raise rates at these debt levels else you bankrupt us), reflecting compression into negative real rates, and you get an explosion in the price of non yielding alternative stores of value, like art, cards, gold and Bitcoin.

I dunno what most of that means but Babe Ruth cards are fun!

[Fred]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

One thing about price momentum... can go on for a very long time, especially if the fed makes it so there are no longer any economic cycles to create forced sales and temper pricing. Add in the fact that you see inflation expectations finally inflecting, and you know that nominal rates are capped (fed + you can’t raise rates at these debt levels else you bankrupt us), reflecting compression into negative real rates, and you get an explosion in the price of non yielding alternative stores of value, like art, cards, gold and Bitcoin.

Josh, great post.

Something else to consider here is that there is more cash on the "sidelines" now than at any other time.

Depending upon what source is used, there is approximately 50 cents on the sideline for every dollar in the market. Ok, that 50 cents includes many things that may not be so liquid but the point is that people are looking to buy something that they feel will appreciate (over time) more than the dollar will.

Just guessing, but the rate of rise/escalation for cards might depend on where in this cycle things are. Has the search for "investments" just started? If so, then who knows what the limit will be. If people have already devoted a good portion of sideline money to other investments then wouldn't that be a precursor to a stagnant investment opportunity? If so, would that be enough to spook "investors" out of card board?

Fun game trying to predict the economy.

Bottom line is that for most collectors, the cardboard is getting too far out of reach. Heck, it might even be an interesting consideration do dump all of the higher priced "cardboard commodities" (assuming you're in them cheap) and look at a different avenue to "invest".

For me, I don't buy for investment. I buy because I like looking a pictures of mostly dead guys on old cardboard. If things get even crazier, I might think of liquidating and hoping to purchase it all back cheaper than what I sold it for, but that's also a crap shoot.

[Casey2296]

I bought a raw, centered 58 Topps Mantle All Star in NM condition this morning for $124.

It was loads of fun.

I also bought a Unicorn T-206 card last week that set me back a substantial amount and made my you know what pucker. Even though I spent a lot of $$ I think I got a good deal for what the card is.

That was loads of fun too.

It's all relative. I'll never own a 52 Mantle nor would I really want to (I prefer the 51 Bowman) but I can still have a blast collecting cards.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

Agree! I don't covet 52 Mantle. But there are opportunities for me outside of that card, Red Cobb, 33 Goudey Ruth. I've turned to photos, Wheaties premiums, and memorabilia. And I love what I purchase. I will never have the money for 52 Matle. But why does that matter when the are 1000s of options. It's cost-benefit analysis.

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[Popcorn]

It’s tuff knowing that some of the cards we sold recently are gone forever. I always thought I could buy them back if I wanted but the recent run up there’s no way. I sold my centered psa 3 52 mantle last year and it would cost 2-3x now to get it back.