"1999 Pokémon trading card could rake in $500K at auction"

[peanuts]

Couple things:
- This is from the initial print run of the first edition of cards. The distinguishing visual feature is that there isn't a drop shadow to help accentuate the character portraits (Hence "shadowless"). The short print run was due to questions around how strong the Pokemon brand was in the US and whether the hype would carry over to the TCG. Shadowless only represents about 15% of the total population for the First Edition set.
- Charizard is functionally the Mantle of the entire Pokemon hobby – just an iconic card, the chase that everyone was looking for. It also took on a bit of meme status in a positive way around the early 2010s.
- Demographics. Huge interest from the tech crowd. For us dorks, Pokemon TCG was what we cared about and collected. Tons of disposable income, and folks are just getting into the more formal collecting hobby.
- The Pokemon scene is still going through a price discovery phase. Since corona, values have gone parabolic. People are starting to grade more, so expect values to come down, but it's still WILD out there right now. Lots of FOMO, lots of people looking to stunt, etc.

Basically the perfect storm converging for a wild valuation.

I think there is real long term value on the Pokemon front. These are icons of the millenial/Gen-Z childhood and there is a SERIOUS sentimental attachment to the cards and the characters on them. That said... I would not want to move large sums of cash right now to get into this market. Far too many question marks.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by peanuts

Couple things:
- This is from the initial print run of the first edition of cards. The distinguishing visual feature is that there isn't a drop shadow to help accentuate the character portraits (Hence "shadowless"). The short print run was due to questions around how strong the Pokemon brand was in the US and whether the hype would carry over to the TCG. Shadowless only represents about 15% of the total population for the First Edition set.
- Charizard is functionally the Mantle of the entire Pokemon hobby – just an iconic card, the chase that everyone was looking for. It also took on a bit of meme status in a positive way around the early 2010s.
- Demographics. Huge interest from the tech crowd. For us dorks, Pokemon TCG was what we cared about and collected. Tons of disposable income, and folks are just getting into the more formal collecting hobby.
- The Pokemon scene is still going through a price discovery phase. Since corona, values have gone parabolic. People are starting to grade more, so expect values to come down, but it's still WILD out there right now. Lots of FOMO, lots of people looking to stunt, etc.

Basically the perfect storm converging for a wild valuation.

I think there is real long term value on the Pokemon front. These are icons of the millenial/Gen-Z childhood and there is a SERIOUS sentimental attachment to the cards and the characters on them. That said... I would not want to move large sums of cash right now to get into this market. Far too many question marks.

I agree with all of this. Just had a friend find her collection and we moved the heavily played non rare stuff for $450 and still have the “high end’ stuff out at PSA.

I bought a beat up base unlimited charizard for $55 to send to PSA. Will fit well with my prewar psa 1-4’s

[T206BrownHindu]

Originally Posted by peanuts

Couple things:
- This is from the initial print run of the first edition of cards. The distinguishing visual feature is that there isn't a drop shadow to help accentuate the character portraits (Hence "shadowless"). The short print run was due to questions around how strong the Pokemon brand was in the US and whether the hype would carry over to the TCG. Shadowless only represents about 15% of the total population for the First Edition set.
- Charizard is functionally the Mantle of the entire Pokemon hobby – just an iconic card, the chase that everyone was looking for. It also took on a bit of meme status in a positive way around the early 2010s.
- Demographics. Huge interest from the tech crowd. For us dorks, Pokemon TCG was what we cared about and collected. Tons of disposable income, and folks are just getting into the more formal collecting hobby.
- The Pokemon scene is still going through a price discovery phase. Since corona, values have gone parabolic. People are starting to grade more, so expect values to come down, but it's still WILD out there right now. Lots of FOMO, lots of people looking to stunt, etc.

Basically the perfect storm converging for a wild valuation.

I think there is real long term value on the Pokemon front. These are icons of the millenial/Gen-Z childhood and there is a SERIOUS sentimental attachment to the cards and the characters on them. That said... I would not want to move large sums of cash right now to get into this market. Far too many question marks.

Were these first edition cards available in packs in 1999 or were they direct from the company?

[peanuts]

Originally Posted by notfast

I agree with all of this. Just had a friend find her collection and we moved the heavily played non rare stuff for $450 and still have the “high end’ stuff out at PSA.

I bought a beat up base unlimited charizard for $55 to send to PSA. Will fit well with my prewar psa 1-4’s

Nice! Anything super exciting from her haul that's in for grading?
I really wonder how the market will react to the incoming flood of low-to-mid grade cards. I know a ton of friends who pulled their old collection, took one look at centering, and shipped their cards off.... but without looking at whitening or scuffing on holo foil.

Originally Posted by T206BrownHindu

Were these first edition cards available in packs in 1999 or were they direct from the company?

Distributed in packs, decks, and boxes from the get-go. Pokemon Company licensed US production and distro out to Wizards of the Coast (Magic the Gathering creators). Wizards used their existing distribution network to sell the cards.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by peanuts

Nice! Anything super exciting from her haul that's in for grading?
I really wonder how the market will react to the incoming flood of low-to-mid grade cards. I know a ton of friends who pulled their old collection, took one look at centering, and shipped their cards off.... but without looking at whitening or scuffing on holo foil.

Nothing crazy and everything was in rough shape. Best card was a 96 Japanese Charizard that might get a psa 2. PSA 9’s are a few grand so its worth sending off in any grade. We graded a few 1st edition shadowless Machamp, Blastoise base unlimited and a couple random holos that looked like 8-9’s....1st edition fossils

She had decent stuff it was just very well “loved” and heavily played. Holos were destroyed. Had 42 total and 2 might grade higher than a 6

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by peanuts

Couple things:
- This is from the initial print run of the first edition of cards. The distinguishing visual feature is that there isn't a drop shadow to help accentuate the character portraits (Hence "shadowless"). The short print run was due to questions around how strong the Pokemon brand was in the US and whether the hype would carry over to the TCG. Shadowless only represents about 15% of the total population for the First Edition set.

To help translate, for those who may not follow:

The original American release of Pokémon contains 102 cards. In general, they can be found in one of three versions:

1. 1st Edition (relatively small first print run/have an "Edition 1" stamp/do not have the shadow)
2. "Shadowless" - (separate but also small print run/not 1st Edition/no stamp/no shadow)
3. Unlimited - (by far the most plentiful/no stamp/has the shadow)

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by peanuts

...Shadowless only represents about 15% of the total population for the First Edition set...

Unless I misunderstood, this comment suggests a print run differential (and/or surviving population) of 7:1 between 1st Edition and Shadowless. Do you have any evidence to support this claim?

I ran a card store in 1999/2000/2001. Pokémon was wildly popular at the store and I gained quite a bit of nuanced knowledge regarding Base Set during this time. The disparity mentioned above simply wasn't evident then.

Additionally, I took a cursory glance at the PSA pop report earlier this evening. This admittedly brief perusal didn't lead me to believe there is currently a wide gap in surviving examples.

I easily might have missed something, though. If you have verifiable print run information, or something similar, please share your knowledge. You've joined a tremendously inquisitive group of collectors here. We absolutely love that sort of thing. (if you ever want to see a really deep dive, check out some of the T206 baseball cards threads)

Welcome to Net54. Happy collecting.

[peanuts]

Originally Posted by Eric72

Unless I misunderstood, this comment suggests a print run differential (and/or surviving population) of 7:1 between 1st Edition and Shadowless. Do you have any evidence to support this claim?

I ran a card store in 1999/2000/2001. Pokémon was wildly popular at the store and I gained quite a bit of nuanced knowledge regarding Base Set during this time. The disparity mentioned above simply wasn't evident then.

Additionally, I took a cursory glance at the PSA pop report earlier this evening. This admittedly brief perusal didn't lead me to believe there is currently a wide gap in surviving examples.

I easily might have missed something, though. If you have verifiable print run information, or something similar, please share your knowledge. You've joined a tremendously inquisitive group of collectors here. We absolutely love that sort of thing. (if you ever want to see a really deep dive, check out some of the T206 baseball cards threads)

Welcome to Net54. Happy collecting.

No inside info! Just what I've garnered from talking with other Pokemon collectors. The operating theory among some of them is that the narrower gap in PSA reports is because a far higher percentage of desirable cards get sent for grading, while the graded pop of Base Unlimited represents a far smaller amount of its print run.
Frankly, I would defer to your experience here, as you actually handled the product coming in!

I'm very very slowly beginning to assemble a T206 – Providence Grays first. Loooove diving into those crazy detailed threads.

[ATP]

I actually got really interested in following First Edition Pokemon cards earlier this year. There is not a ton of hard science behind this but here is the soft math I am using to try to get an idea of print run. Wizards of the Coast made Magic as well. They have a pretty verifiable print run on their first printing of cards, Alpha, as they produced only 1100 of each of the cards that were packed in the "rare" slot. At any given time, there is usually about 12 (approximately) of a specific Alpha magic "rare" for sale on eBay. At any given time, there is approximately 50 of a specific First Edition base set Pokemon card. Someone who has more time may be able to extrapolate this further out and take an overage for each and then do the same for the uncommon cards and commons, which also have verifiable runs in Alpha Magic and this may give a decent idea of what the total print run is. If the average holds somewhat true just for the Rares, that would mean there are about 4 - 5 times the number of Pokemon Rare First Edition base set produced, so around 5000 each. Someone feel free to shoot this whole theory down

[peanuts]

Originally Posted by ATP

I actually got really interested in following First Edition Pokemon cards earlier this year. There is not a ton of hard science behind this but here is the soft math I am using to try to get an idea of print run. Wizards of the Coast made Magic as well. They have a pretty verifiable print run on their first printing of cards, Alpha, as they produced only 1100 of each of the cards that were packed in the "rare" slot. At any given time, there is usually about 12 (approximately) of a specific Alpha magic "rare" for sale on eBay. At any given time, there is approximately 50 of a specific First Edition base set Pokemon card. Someone who has more time may be able to extrapolate this further out and take an overage for each and then do the same for the uncommon cards and commons, which also have verifiable runs in Alpha Magic and this may give a decent idea of what the total print run is. If the average holds somewhat true just for the Rares, that would mean there are about 4 - 5 times the number of Pokemon Rare First Edition base set produced, so around 5000 each. Someone feel free to shoot this whole theory down

I like your premise – two points I would make to narrow the math a bit more.
- Rare:Common ratio differs between the two. Alpha magic is 1100:15900 (1:14.45). Base Set boosters are 11/pk, with a 1:7 ratio. Right away, we're looking at double the relative supply of rares. Admittedly, I don't know what the ratios are on the starter decks/theme decks that were also sold, so that could affect the actual ratio.
- Market volume in relation to total supply. Pokemon is a hot market right now, so it's safe to assume that float is fairly high.

[Usc1]

Where can I buy Pokemon cards? For research of course.

[ATP]

Originally Posted by peanuts

I like your premise – two points I would make to narrow the math a bit more.
- Rare:Common ratio differs between the two. Alpha magic is 1100:15900 (1:14.45). Base Set boosters are 11/pk, with a 1:7 ratio. Right away, we're looking at double the relative supply of rares. Admittedly, I don't know what the ratios are on the starter decks/theme decks that were also sold, so that could affect the actual ratio.
- Market volume in relation to total supply. Pokemon is a hot market right now, so it's safe to assume that float is fairly high.

Both good points. My math was just a rough estimate I used but I wouldn't be surprised if it holds up pretty well, eBay seems to be the great equalizer on most things collectible. And while Pokemon may be much hotter right now, Alpha Magic cards have been somewhat hot for a longer period of time so one could argue that more of them have made them into the market for sale than First Edition Pokemon, which right now appears to be coming out of people binders and collections at a fast pace. Also, I am surprised that no one (or maybe they have) has dug out some images of Wizards of the Coast print sheets sheets, and if they were printed like Magic cards were in their arrangement allocation. Being able to get an estimate based on how they were printed I think would help.