1953 Topps PSA 10 Mickey Mantle IPO on Collectible App a Game Changer

[BLongley]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

Interesting how many people speak from a place of no knowledge.

No trading fees.
No cash out fees.
Daily trading market for liquidity.

Very small upfront fee only the original seller pays.

This makes sense

$617k/$1000k within 24 hours disagrees with the opinions of many cynical individuals here, although I always see some people exude negativity.

I'm in.

The site explicitly states over and over that no secondary market is guaranteed.


“We are hoping to provide more information on potential secondary market trading frequency in the coming months. Collectable’s vision and mission is to provide a dynamic secondary market with trading access at least five days a week; however, there is no assurance that this market will develop or, if it does, that that sufficient liquidity will establish itself or secondary market technology will allow our vision to become a reality”

[BLongley]

Originally Posted by ergoism

See you guys in about 3 months.

Evan the guy running it is from Hilltop a hedge fund that got out of Technology and into energy in 2016.... good luck!

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by BLongley

Evan the guy running it is from Hilltop a hedge fund that got out of Technology and into energy in 2016.... good luck!

Impeccable at timing the top of the market!


Couldnt have made worse decisions.

Mark this as the top of the card market.

[kailes2872]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

It is hard for me to take your post seriously when you cherry pick the March low. We don't know when that card sold during 2009 and it came back to end the year over 400 points higher.

I will cherry pick now. In 2004 the SP was was higher than where it ended in 2009. The Wagner went from $109,638 to $1,169,875.

Completely destroying the SP. Bare in mind most people with money don't have all of their money in the SP and what has driven a massive amount of the recent move is 6 stocks. Investor returns have not tracked the SP even remotely.

Lord knows I feel this. It was like there was a party going on and I wasn’t invited... the Russell 2000 has been lagging since 2016 and I’ve been lagging right along with it.

[Sean1125]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Where is the prospectus? The investor qualification materials? What exchange is trading these shares? Anything that would make this other than what appears on its face to be an illegal offering of unregistered securities?

Maybe the legal prospectus at the bottom of the offering?

[japhi]

Originally Posted by kailes2872

Lord knows I feel this. It was like there was a party going on and I wasn’t invited... the Russell 2000 has been lagging since 2016 and I’ve been lagging right along with it.

Everyone is invited. Just buy the index.

Buffet vs Hedge Fund was pretty fun to follow:

https://www.investopedia.com/article...-brka-brkb.asp

[glchen]

While I respect the OP as he is a financial advisor, and I think that in general, he has very sounds investment advice, I think the concept here is a bad idea for most folks. I also saw a similar article on SCD here: Link. When I first saw these articles, I was thinking this is one of the factors that is causing such a spike in the market recently for marquee cards. It's like another buyer's group out there, scooping up cards for this purpose.


The immediate red flags that I see are:

(1) 90 day lockup before you can sell your shares

(2) Owner retains 60% shares of the card

(3) Unknown liquidity of shares

(4) As far as I know, the cards are not stored by some objective 3rd party in case the cards need to be sold to pay out shareholders.

These issues will lead to potential for abuse. If the card values goes up, everyone wins. If the card value goes down, only the original owner of the card and the app will win. There are too many questions. Who's the market maker? Can your shares get diluted? Can the lockup be extended? Who sets the price of the shares? Instead of dealing with all of these complexities, just buy the entire card yourself or buy yourself a few shares of Apple stock, where the investment potential is known.


I remember a few years ago when the price of oil was sky high, and I thought that I was being a market genius by buying this ETF called USOIL, which seemingly would track oil prices that way. However, the strange thing was when oil prices went up, the ETF price barely moved. I thought I should have been making a killing, but ended up losing money instead. The excuse some something like there were a lot of complexities in the ETF like fees, the way they bought oil futures, etc that didn't translate into a 1:1 correlation of the price of oil and the ETF price. The point here is, if the investment is a black box where you have no clue the pricing structure, etc, it is best to avoid it before you lose your shirt on that investment.

[bbnut]

You're not collecting anything. How about calling it "Ponzi investibles" instead?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[conor912]

Originally Posted by glchen

While I respect the OP as he is a financial advisor, and I think that in general, he has very sounds investment advice, I think the concept here is a bad idea for most folks. I also saw a similar article on SCD here: Link. When I first saw these articles, I was thinking this is one of the factors that is causing such a spike in the market recently for marquee cards. It's like another buyer's group out there, scooping up cards for this purpose.


The immediate red flags that I see are:

(1) 90 day lockup before you can sell your shares

(2) Owner retains 60% shares of the card

(3) Unknown liquidity of shares

(4) As far as I know, the cards are not stored by some objective 3rd party in case the cards need to be sold to pay out shareholders.

These issues will lead to potential for abuse. If the card values goes up, everyone wins. If the card value goes down, only the original owner of the card and the app will win. There are too many questions. Who's the market maker? Can your shares get diluted? Can the lockup be extended? Who sets the price of the shares? Instead of dealing with all of these complexities, just buy the entire card yourself or buy yourself a few shares of Apple stock, where the investment potential is known.


I remember a few years ago when the price of oil was sky high, and I thought that I was being a market genius by buying this ETF called USOIL, which seemingly would track oil prices that way. However, the strange thing was when oil prices went up, the ETF price barely moved. I thought I should have been making a killing, but ended up losing money instead. The excuse some something like there were a lot of complexities in the ETF like fees, the way they bought oil futures, etc that didn't translate into a 1:1 correlation of the price of oil and the ETF price. The point here is, if the investment is a black box where you have no clue the pricing structure, etc, it is best to avoid it before you lose your shirt on that investment.

+1

Too many ways to go sideways, but I'm happy to watch some other canary fly down into the coal mine.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

Maybe the legal prospectus at the bottom of the offering?

Hey, I sent you a private email. Maybe it didn't go through. Please remove my testimonial for your former company 5 years ago from your website for a different company I've never recommended anyone use.
Thanks!
John

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by glchen

While I respect the OP as he is a financial advisor, and I think that in general, he has very sounds investment advice, I think the concept here is a bad idea for most folks. I also saw a similar article on SCD here: Link. When I first saw these articles, I was thinking this is one of the factors that is causing such a spike in the market recently for marquee cards. It's like another buyer's group out there, scooping up cards for this purpose.


The immediate red flags that I see are:

(1) 90 day lockup before you can sell your shares

(2) Owner retains 60% shares of the card

(3) Unknown liquidity of shares

(4) As far as I know, the cards are not stored by some objective 3rd party in case the cards need to be sold to pay out shareholders.

These issues will lead to potential for abuse. If the card values goes up, everyone wins. If the card value goes down, only the original owner of the card and the app will win. There are too many questions. Who's the market maker? Can your shares get diluted? Can the lockup be extended? Who sets the price of the shares? Instead of dealing with all of these complexities, just buy the entire card yourself or buy yourself a few shares of Apple stock, where the investment potential is known.


I remember a few years ago when the price of oil was sky high, and I thought that I was being a market genius by buying this ETF called USOIL, which seemingly would track oil prices that way. However, the strange thing was when oil prices went up, the ETF price barely moved. I thought I should have been making a killing, but ended up losing money instead. The excuse some something like there were a lot of complexities in the ETF like fees, the way they bought oil futures, etc that didn't translate into a 1:1 correlation of the price of oil and the ETF price. The point here is, if the investment is a black box where you have no clue the pricing structure, etc, it is best to avoid it before you lose your shirt on that investment.

There is no doubt this is a new concept and time will tell how it plays out. The client who first brought this to my a attention few years back through the art world so far has seen some solid results. What has happened there is as they create new issues it forces the the investment group to go out and find new pieces of art and thus driving up the value of the existing supply. As they can showcase that the value of the art they have already purchased has gone up it attracts new interest. I believe the same will hold true here. One of the primary reasons people want into cards so bad right now is they have done well. When guys like Justin Beiber are "flexing" their Pokemon collections on Instagram it makes others want them too. This in my view is why Gary V has had such an impact on the card market. I only keep up with a few people in the hobby and one used to post here and he has sold cards direcly to NBA players and has others contacting him on IG (Instagram) saying they want in.

I think the comparison to the USO is a poor one because it is not an apples to apples comparison. In this case one can call the Mantle 10 a commodity I suppose but there is only one other direct substitute and no futures market to artificially positively or negatively impact the market. The reason the USO did so poorly is two fold. One as they take in assets they must buy more futures contracts and can have a significant impact on the market as they put those funds to work essentially becoming the market and two those ETF structures have to buy front month oil futures contracts where there is generally a time value premium embedded. The oil futures market is generally in contango which is what destroys an ETF like this ones performance. The only time you have a positive role is when it is in backwardation meaning the current oil spot price is higher than the futures market. For example if oil is currently at $40 and the following month futures contact is $38 you experience no negative role and so the underlying value of the ETF structure doesn't deteriorate. Most of the time the market is in contango where you have an upward sloping futures curve and so as time goes by the premium gets drained out of the front month contract as it comes closer to the spot price and the ETF will lose value and then must start the process all over again. This is why if you look at the VXX a popular trading vehicle to attempt to trade the VIX you will be losing money every month if the VIX stays flat. The front month futures contract has at least a 7% premium so over the course of 12 months it will naturally shed at least 84% of its value unless the VIX rises. Hence why it has had numerous reverse splits. These are very complex vehicles and most when purchasing them don't realize what they are up against.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

In terms of sale price I would think it has to recognized as the sale price.

After seeing that only 40% of the card is being sold, I disagree that the sale price should be recorded as $2.5 million. Had 100% of shares been sold, I would have thought it would count as a sale.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

I love this concept. There are quite a few cards that have increased in value so exponentially that most collectors will never have the opportunity to own. This gives them the ability to participate as investors in those cards. Yes others have said you're not really an "owner" not having the card in your possession, but how many of us have the ability to own outright a Ruth RC, T206 Wagner or a PSA 10 Mantle? The real value though will happen if this takes off and you can easily buy/sell gaining liquidity on your investments.

[Tyruscobb]

Is there any way I can short this card (at this particular price) and company for that matter? Folks need to remember 1929 and 2007. 1929 stock investors didn’t think the market could go anywhere but up. Housing and real estate investors thought the same thing almost 80 years later.

This card market is overheated. As soon as the stock market corrects, the rest will soon follow. If this is a game changer then I’m glad I’m not in the game.

[glchen]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

There is no doubt this is a new concept and time will tell how it plays out. The client who first brought this to my a attention few years back through the art world so far has seen some solid results. What has happened there is as they create new issues it forces the the investment group to go out and find new pieces of art and thus driving up the value of the existing supply. As they can showcase that the value of the art they have already purchased has gone up it attracts new interest. I believe the same will hold true here. One of the primary reasons people want into cards so bad right now is they have done well. When guys like Justin Beiber are "flexing" their Pokemon collections on Instagram it makes others want them too. This in my view is why Gary V has had such an impact on the card market. I only keep up with a few people in the hobby and one used to post here and he has sold cards direcly to NBA players and has others contacting him on IG (Instagram) saying they want in.

I think the comparison to the USO is a poor one because it is not an apples to apples comparison. In this case one can call the Mantle 10 a commodity I suppose but there is only one other direct substitute and no futures market to artificially positively or negatively impact the market. The reason the USO did so poorly is two fold. One as they take in assets they must buy more futures contracts and can have a significant impact on the market as they put those funds to work essentially becoming the market and two those ETF structures have to buy front month oil futures contracts where there is generally a time value premium embedded. The oil futures market is generally in contango which is what destroys an ETF like this ones performance. The only time you have a positive role is when it is in backwardation meaning the current oil spot price is higher than the futures market. For example if oil is currently at $40 and the following month futures contact is $38 you experience no negative role and so the underlying value of the ETF structure doesn't deteriorate. Most of the time the market is in contango where you have an upward sloping futures curve and so as time goes by the premium gets drained out of the front month contract as it comes closer to the spot price and the ETF will lose value and then must start the process all over again. This is why if you look at the VXX a popular trading vehicle to attempt to trade the VIX you will be losing money every month if the VIX stays flat. The front month futures contract has at least a 7% premium so over the course of 12 months it will naturally shed at least 84% of its value unless the VIX rises. Hence why it has had numerous reverse splits. These are very complex vehicles and most when purchasing them don't realize what they are up against.

Thanks for the input, David. You definitely know ETFs much more than I do. How about the other red flags I brought up? You really don’t see significant risk there even in a down market?

Frankly, I think cards still have more room to run because I think it will eventually replace coin collecting as the top hobby with all of the news happening on ESPN and so forth. However, the greed that led to the 80s/90s bust can always repeat itself so folks should be wary.

I don’t collect cards purely for investment. It’s a hobby that’s fun and not one that I’m trying to beat the stock market on returns. However, I prefer that after I sell my cards, I can at least break even especially after the 15-25% in seller fees on eBay or at an auction house. And if I come away with more money to buy more cards, all the better. However, I really like having the card in hand. If it can’t hold the card anymore, it’s not a hobby anymore. It’s pure investment. So something like this needs to be looked at in purely those terms.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by glchen

Thanks for the input, David. You definitely know ETFs much more than I do. How about the other red flags I brought up? You really don’t see significant risk there even in a down market?

Frankly, I think cards still have more room to run because I think it will eventually replace coin collecting as the top hobby with all of the news happening on ESPN and so forth. However, the greed that led to the 80s/90s bust can always repeat itself so folks should be wary.

I don’t collect cards purely for investment. It’s a hobby that’s fun and not one that I’m trying to beat the stock market on returns. However, I prefer that after I sell my cards, I can at least break even especially after the 15-25% in seller fees on eBay or at an auction house. And if I come away with more money to buy more cards, all the better. However, I really like having the card in hand. If it can’t hold the card anymore, it’s not a hobby anymore. It’s pure investment. So something like this needs to be looked at in purely those terms.

Your bullet points are all reasonable concerns. I think the 90 day lock up period is actually a good thing. One of the problems in the stock market when an IPO or a secondary offering is announced is you get a lot of hot money that wants to get in for a minute and out with some cash. It makes a stable secondary market much more difficult when the buyers are not natural buyers who plan to invest and instead are just flippers. I also think it will give some time for the dust to settle and see what other offerings they bring out and how much demand there are for those. Let me be clear I have no information about the doings of this company. My belief is purely market based and I see this morphing into a concept and if I had to guess they started with a big one like this to try and get this thing really moving. I would assume after looking at their website and the talent pool they have working for them that there will be a media blitz and attempts to go on television and push this idea.

The fact that the owner retains 60% ownership means he still has a lot of skin in the game. It also means the available supply of seats at the table are smaller and so in theory could drive the price up more easily with less demand to get in after the 90 day lock up period. One person raised a good point earlier about the expected bid ask spread. In the stock market a very liquid stock might trade a penny apart and if you use a Fidelity or a broker dealer like that you can actually get executed generally speaking at the mid point so half a penny. We are not talking about a listed stock here so there has to be some expectation of a wider spread. In the stock market you also have market markers working for themselves who carry inventory and so they are buying when others aren't with the intent to provide liquidity and to scalp money from small price changes. I am not sure if the broker dealer that is providing liquidity with this on behalf of the investment firm will attempt to do this. Sometimes there is what is known as a supporting bid where they try and keep the price from falling and I suppose it is possible here. The trading aspect of this is definitely something new and I think it will work itself out over time. If people buying in are using funds they need back in a 90 day window they really shouldn't be placing funds in a deal like this.

The primary issue in my view that matters is what happens to card prices of this magnitude. I keep hearing this is the top of the market and maybe for the time being it is. I think those are bold claims. Asset price predictions can be very humbling. Card prices I would argue are even harder to predict than stock prices because there are no real metrics to go on. When Apple hit $138 it had a trailing PE of 41 times earnings. A valuation level I never dreamed possible for the company. There was no shortage of analysts on TV raising price targets and these are well trained finance professionals trying to rationalize the move and suggest further gains ahead. With cards you can't really say well this is overvalued because of real metrics. It is guess work. In March when the market was falling there was more doom and gloom on this board than any I participate on. Some very ominous predictions. I just sold a card Friday night that has gone up over 1600% since then. They felt their predictions were based on logic. I at the time was one of the loan bulls but I can't say in any capacity I thought this card would rise to this degree. You can be right about the trend and wrong about the price.

In the case of the 1953 Mantle this is clearly one of the best looking baseball cards ever made. It is a true work of art. What is that worth? I don't know. The card in any condition has always been highly sought after and the set itself has a very low number that have graded a PSA 10. You have a combination of factors at play. Star power, attractive card, scarcity of condition, and a very popular set and so the recipe for long term demand is undeniable. The only real question is what should that be worth. If it is the top of the market how far down does it go? I would imagine in the example I gave above in 2009 when a Honus Wagner sold for over 400k there were hobby participants like those who visit this board that would have said that is insane. Unreal. I can't believe someone would pay that for a PSA 1. That has no where to go but down. Maybe the card consolidated for a few years and didn't really move much and then it started to climb again. I think a more realistic scenario is perhaps this is fully valued at the moment but under no circumstances do I see a major correction in top level cards. I for years have used the example of the 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 10. There are obviously only three. You can have all the money in the world and still can't get one. Imagine being a hedge fund manager and in your 63rd floor apartment in New York City and having a party with this prized card in a glass case and everyone at your party sees this baseball card and says OMG tell me about this. This is one of only three of the finest known examples of the most popular baseball card. What is it worth? At 2 million it is cool. At 10 ten million it is awesome. And so on. The higher the price the more interest there is. This is how things work. The insatiable appetite to have what others can't is not going away and so while low dollar cards where supply is plentiful may decline the wealth class will still be interested in a card like this and I believe even more so in the future.

The company is teaming up with a broker dealer and so for them to make a market in the card it has to be held as collateral. I have had limited text contact with Evan and the first question I asked him was do you have to turn the card over. He said yes. If anyone should be concerned about its where abouts its him with 60% ownership. This issue is the least of my concern.

[Delray Vintage]

Nothing wrong with fractional ownership if the valuation is fair. Owning a fractional share of an overvalued company(card) is not a good idea. If the Mantle 10 is worth 2.5 mil at auction then a fractional share is a fair investment. If the value is $1.25 million at auction then you are paying double the current value to own a fraction. As a minority owner you will have no say in how or when the card is sold. Not sure what liquidity you have if you want to resell the share.

[Republicaninmass]

How did they get all their contact Info? I never signed up to my knowledge

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Nothing wrong with fractional ownership if the valuation is fair. Owning a fractional share of an overvalued company(card) is not a good idea. If the Mantle 10 is worth 2.5 mil at auction then a fractional share is a fair investment. If the value is $1.25 million at auction then you are paying double the current value to own a fraction. As a minority owner you will have no say in how or when the card is sold. Not sure what liquidity you have if you want to resell the share.

I agree with you when it comes to static assets, but if you look at the past decade “overvalued” companies are pretty much what have paid the bills. The majority of the leading gainers have been riding PE’s of anywhere from 15-1 to 40-1. Investing in something “overvalued” isn’t necessarily a losing proposition.

[philliesphan]

What's the most lucrative way to cash out of my ETopps portfolio to diversify into this exciting, new brand of card-based profiteering?

[Republicaninmass]

Hmm now they have an article by that hack Siedman?

How did they get their contact list again?

[oldjudge]

Let me get this right-the owner of the card is an owner of the fund. Is that correct? So he makes money on the listed valuation for the card (I believe i heard that it originally sold for $1 million) and the fees the fund charges? Is that correct? Who determines when the card will be sold? How are positions marked to market if trades do not take place? What oversight body is regulating these transactions? If there are gains for investors are these collectible gains or ordinary capital gains? Are there truly independent board members? Thanks for any answers.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Let me get this right-the owner of the card is an owner of the fund. Is that correct? So he makes money on the listed valuation for the card (I believe i heard that it originally sold for $1 million) and the fees the fund charges? Is that correct? Who determines when the card will be sold? How are positions marked to market if trades do not take place? What oversight body is regulating these transactions? If there are gains for investors are these collectible gains or ordinary capital gains? Are there truly independent board members? Thanks for any answers.

Yeah what could possibly go wrong there, oldjudge?

I am perplexed how an outsider of this newly formed company with knowledge of the ins and outs of investing on Wall St would support such a venture but ok. Maybe I am missing something. I would love to hear answers to your questions.

[Tyruscobb]

For me, the downside risks and unknown outweigh the potential upside. My first concern is the offering price. $2.5M? I wonder how the company determined this is the card’s current value? I suspect this is a nice premium. If so, investors are already starting off underwater from true market value.

Next, who determines the card’s value when the lockout period expires and going forward? How often is it reassessed? How is it determined? How is it communicated? Without this information, I don’t understand how any liquidity occurs.

Finally, who determines when it’s time to actually auction the card? What factors and objective criteria does the company use? What if during a market down period, the company’s owner needs to raise cash to cover other investments, pay down debt, wants to invest funds in a higher returning venture, needs to pay alimony in a divorce, etc. If he wants to sell, due to his personal needs, and the market is down, everyone is automatically going to take a bath.

However, I suspect the company is playing with house money. It is retaining 60% ownership. I bet the 40% covers the card’s purchase and the administration fees, giving the house a free roll.

Like Buffet says, never invest in something you do not understand and know all the details. I’ll risk my hard-earned money in the stock market, not wildcatting.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

For me, the downside risks and unknown outweigh the potential upside. My first concern is the offering price. $2.5M? I wonder how the company determined this is the card’s current value? I suspect this is a nice premium. If so, investors are already starting off underwater from true market value.

Next, who determines the card’s value when the lockout period expires and going forward? How often is it reassessed? How is it determined? How is it communicated? Without this information, I don’t understand how any liquidity occurs.

Finally, who determines when it’s time to actually auction the card? What factors and objective criteria does the company use? What if during a market down period, the company’s owner needs to raise cash to cover other investments, pay down debt, wants to invest funds in a higher returning venture, needs to pay alimony in a divorce, etc. If he wants to sell, due to his personal needs, and the market is down, everyone is automatically going to take a bath.

However, I suspect the company is playing with house money. It is retaining 60% ownership. I bet the 40% covers the card’s purchase and the administration fees, giving the house a free roll.

Like Buffet says, never invest in something you do not understand and know all the details. I’ll risk my hard-earned money in the stock market, not wildcatting.

Hmm isn't it surprising that 40pct of 2.5 million is 1 million. What a coincidence.

[brafcauknid]

Im sure some people will be into this, but not for me. First and foremost, Im a collector, not an investor, but one of the aspects I like about sports cards, comics, gold/silver etc is I like that its a tangible asset...I dont buy gold/silver shares from Rosiland Capital, and owning shares of a card, any card, has zero appeal to me...but to each their own.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by brafcauknid

Im sure some people will be into this, but not for me. First and foremost, Im a collector, not an investor, but one of the aspects I like about sports cards, comics, gold/silver etc is I like that its a tangible asset...I dont buy gold/silver shares from Rosiland Capital, and owning shares of a card, any card, has zero appeal to me...but to each their own.

+1
I don't share my food (will always buy what my SO or other wants) and I don't share my sportscards.
And a card because threads need cards.

[packs]

This hobby is about STUFF and I can't imagine being active in the hobby and not having STUFF. You'll never touch something you own the corner of and you won't really have a collection at all.

[glchen]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Your bullet points are all reasonable concerns. I think the 90 day lock up period is actually a good thing. One of the problems in the stock market when an IPO or a secondary offering is announced is you get a lot of hot money that wants to get in for a minute and out with some cash. It makes a stable secondary market much more difficult when the buyers are not natural buyers who plan to invest and instead are just flippers. I also think it will give some time for the dust to settle and see what other offerings they bring out and how much demand there are for those. Let me be clear I have no information about the doings of this company. My belief is purely market based and I see this morphing into a concept and if I had to guess they started with a big one like this to try and get this thing really moving. I would assume after looking at their website and the talent pool they have working for them that there will be a media blitz and attempts to go on television and push this idea.

The fact that the owner retains 60% ownership means he still has a lot of skin in the game. It also means the available supply of seats at the table are smaller and so in theory could drive the price up more easily with less demand to get in after the 90 day lock up period. One person raised a good point earlier about the expected bid ask spread. In the stock market a very liquid stock might trade a penny apart and if you use a Fidelity or a broker dealer like that you can actually get executed generally speaking at the mid point so half a penny. We are not talking about a listed stock here so there has to be some expectation of a wider spread. In the stock market you also have market markers working for themselves who carry inventory and so they are buying when others aren't with the intent to provide liquidity and to scalp money from small price changes. I am not sure if the broker dealer that is providing liquidity with this on behalf of the investment firm will attempt to do this. Sometimes there is what is known as a supporting bid where they try and keep the price from falling and I suppose it is possible here. The trading aspect of this is definitely something new and I think it will work itself out over time. If people buying in are using funds they need back in a 90 day window they really shouldn't be placing funds in a deal like this.

The primary issue in my view that matters is what happens to card prices of this magnitude. I keep hearing this is the top of the market and maybe for the time being it is. I think those are bold claims. Asset price predictions can be very humbling. Card prices I would argue are even harder to predict than stock prices because there are no real metrics to go on. When Apple hit $138 it had a trailing PE of 41 times earnings. A valuation level I never dreamed possible for the company. There was no shortage of analysts on TV raising price targets and these are well trained finance professionals trying to rationalize the move and suggest further gains ahead. With cards you can't really say well this is overvalued because of real metrics. It is guess work. In March when the market was falling there was more doom and gloom on this board than any I participate on. Some very ominous predictions. I just sold a card Friday night that has gone up over 1600% since then. They felt their predictions were based on logic. I at the time was one of the loan bulls but I can't say in any capacity I thought this card would rise to this degree. You can be right about the trend and wrong about the price.

In the case of the 1953 Mantle this is clearly one of the best looking baseball cards ever made. It is a true work of art. What is that worth? I don't know. The card in any condition has always been highly sought after and the set itself has a very low number that have graded a PSA 10. You have a combination of factors at play. Star power, attractive card, scarcity of condition, and a very popular set and so the recipe for long term demand is undeniable. The only real question is what should that be worth. If it is the top of the market how far down does it go? I would imagine in the example I gave above in 2009 when a Honus Wagner sold for over 400k there were hobby participants like those who visit this board that would have said that is insane. Unreal. I can't believe someone would pay that for a PSA 1. That has no where to go but down. Maybe the card consolidated for a few years and didn't really move much and then it started to climb again. I think a more realistic scenario is perhaps this is fully valued at the moment but under no circumstances do I see a major correction in top level cards. I for years have used the example of the 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 10. There are obviously only three. You can have all the money in the world and still can't get one. Imagine being a hedge fund manager and in your 63rd floor apartment in New York City and having a party with this prized card in a glass case and everyone at your party sees this baseball card and says OMG tell me about this. This is one of only three of the finest known examples of the most popular baseball card. What is it worth? At 2 million it is cool. At 10 ten million it is awesome. And so on. The higher the price the more interest there is. This is how things work. The insatiable appetite to have what others can't is not going away and so while low dollar cards where supply is plentiful may decline the wealth class will still be interested in a card like this and I believe even more so in the future.

The company is teaming up with a broker dealer and so for them to make a market in the card it has to be held as collateral. I have had limited text contact with Evan and the first question I asked him was do you have to turn the card over. He said yes. If anyone should be concerned about its where abouts its him with 60% ownership. This issue is the least of my concern.

Thanks, appreciate your thoughtful response.

[Dpeck100]

Here is an interesting article I just read. Apparently they already have 30 million of collectables under management.


https://www.insidehook.com/article/s...-mickey-mantle

[bounce]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

What has happened there is as they create new issues it forces the the investment group to go out and find new pieces of art and thus driving up the value of the existing supply. As they can showcase that the value of the art they have already purchased has gone up it attracts new interest. I believe the same will hold true here. One of the primary reasons people want into cards so bad right now is they have done well. When guys like Justin Beiber are "flexing" their Pokemon collections on Instagram it makes others want them too. This in my view is why Gary V has had such an impact on the card market. I only keep up with a few people in the hobby and one used to post here and he has sold cards direcly to NBA players and has others contacting him on IG (Instagram) saying they want in.

Not being flippant, but is this not also potentially the "greater fool theory" at work?

Everything goes up, until it doesn't.

[Dpeck100]

In working with my compliance department this and future offerings will be more complicated than I realized. I have sent an email to Ezra to cancel my future investment in the card.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

In working with my compliance department this and future offerings will be more complicated than I realized. I have sent an email to Ezra to cancel my future investment in the card.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

In working with my compliance department this and future offerings will be more complicated than I realized. I have sent an email to Ezra to cancel my future investment in the card.

sometimes you have to go through the process...I'm glad to hear it!

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

In working with my compliance department this and future offerings will be more complicated than I realized. I have sent an email to Ezra to cancel my future investment in the card.

How so?

[kailes2872]

When I heard about this at first, I thought that it might be a good opportunity to dollar cost average my way into a big card. For example, A 52 Mantle might be $50,000 and have 1000 shares at $50 a share or something like that. I could buy 100 shares at $50 and then over time as the price went up, I could continue to buy share, i.e, the next 100 shares are $55 a share, then $60, all the way until I had purchased all of them and had the card for say $60,000 and it took my 4-5 years to buy up all of the shares.

I sent an email a couple of weeks ago to ask about this scenario asking if I would be able to eventually own all of the shares and when I did, could I take possession of the card.

I got this response:

Hi Kevin - thanks for your interest, and apologies for the delay. Yes, you can continue to purchase stock in our offerings over time. You can also submit offers to acquire the entire asset outright.
Thanks,
Collectable

Since this thread began, I have realized a couple of things. First, we are talking super super high end cards like the 2.5 million PSA 10 '53 Mantle and not a $50,000 '52 Mantle. I also saw in the thread that they would only sell off 60% of the equity - so my quest to buy a high end card on glorified layaway over time couldn't happen even though they say you can submit to acquire the entire asset outright. There are a lot of things that seem good here in theory that would be tough to execute without issue. So, I will have to wait and watch on the sidelines to see how this develops and go back to my cookie jar as a way to save and put back for those elusive expensive cards.

[BLongley]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by BLongley

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Huh? MILLIONS of entries and Sean won? Wait, isn't he an employee at this company or knows these guys? I'm confused.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Huh? MILLIONS of entries and Sean won? Wait, isn't he an employee at this company or knows these guys? I'm confused.

I don't get it. Is this for real?

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I don't get it. Is this for real?

Only the SEC knows for sure.

[BLongley]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I don't get it. Is this for real?

Yeah it’s real , Collectable posted it on their Instagram, definitely some good luck that he won. Sounds like he may have some cards he tried to list based on his comments, but he’s connected to Evan who I understand is involved with Collectable. And he certainly has been talking very positive about them , and has said “he’s in” , so maybe he owns shares of the 53T ... who knows , but he certainly seems to have some vested interest.

[Jcosta19]

This explains the "millions" of entries and why someone who is so visibly promoting the app would be the winner, apparently that's how you get more entries. Smart contest from marketing perspective.

Looks like their 2nd offering today was a LeBron James rookie for 50K with max 5% investment and it sold out in 5hrs.

Still not for me, but wish any investors the best of luck.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[Econteachert205]

This might very well be successful. Having said that I can remember what killed the fun of the hobby for me in the early 1990’s was the greed and the amount of greed I see now is pushing me away again.

[slidekellyslide]

What an unbelievable stroke of luck for Sean Bassik to win that contest.

[bounce]

yeah, if you didn't know any better you might be suspicious of that outcome.

[swarmee]

The apps are growing like cockroaches:
https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...yctyO-mWfrYPbI

[Leon]

Originally Posted by swarmee

The apps are growing like cockroaches:
https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...yctyO-mWfrYPbI

Oy vey

[slidekellyslide]

Can someone explain to me why they would put money into something that they can't get out of unless the majority owner decides to sell. What if he never decides to sell?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

Can someone explain to me why they would put money into something that they can't get out of unless the majority owner decides to sell. What if he never decides to sell?

They have the plan to allow shares to be sold to others while the original asset is just sitting in the vault unsold.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by swarmee

They have the plan to allow shares to be sold to others while the original asset is just sitting in the vault unsold.

So you can sell to others who have already invested in the same card? Or new investors? Or both? And I'm assuming the share price never drops from the original investment price, but you'll just have to pay a commission fee to sell?

And let's say Mike Trout kills a hooker and his cards drop in value...can you sell at your same investment cost?