Do the prices on vintage ever go down?

[Jetsfan]

As a background, I am a kid of the 80’s. Really started collecting around 1981, buying packs, going to local shows, and buying cards through something called the “Baseball Advertiser” (if anyone else remembers that). Stopped for a while around 1991 when I headed to college, and picked it back up again around 2014. Since that time, it seems vintage card prices have only stayed flat or, more commonly in my experience, gone up (with the exception of the buyer’s group fallout around 2016). That’s great for the cards I’ve already purchased, but, to tie in with my last post about whether people are hesitant to buy now, I was curious for those of you who’ve been in the game for a while, what your experiences have been. I should mention that I’m typically a mid grade collector...since I essentially never saw the equivalent of the current PSA 8-10 when I was a kid, I prefer to stick with what I grew up on

Adam

[kailes2872]

I've been back in the game since late 2012. From what I have witnessed - and it is over simplified - Mantle and tier one stars have steadily gone up (Mays, Aaron, Clemente, and some HOF rookies). 2nd & 3rd tier stars have remained relatively flat. Commons have remained flat or down as more and more people are moving toward star collecting and away from set collecting.

What surprises me the most is that "rarer" cards such as the 54 Bowman Williams and #68 '59 Fleer Williams have not seen increases.

But a PSA 6 '69 Mantle was a $180 card in 2014. It is consistently over $300 now. And for the most part, the PSA 6 price for tier 1 stars in 2015 is now the PSA 5 price and in some cases the PSA 4 price.

[swarmee]

Some famous examples of vintage cards going down:
2016 "Buyers Group" really shilled up the prices of 1950s and 1960s Hall of Fame level rookies in PSA 7,8,9 grades (Clemente, Rose, Koufax, etc) to double, triple, or quadruple their original prices in only a few months. After they stopped buying, cards dropped again. This would be considered a market bubble that burst.

If you search the Auction Prices Realized website for PSA graded cards, take a look at the 1952 Topps set. Many PSA 8 cards sold early on for like $10K each, and the same exact cards (cert numbers) sold just a few years later in many cases for a fraction of those prices (down in the $1-2K range). Not sure if once the top buyers got their cards, the demand decreased, or whether the supply kept growing and now the whales needed PSA 9/10s to remain competitive. https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...light=realized

Pre-war has probably had sets go out of favor and dropped because of that. Most of the candy/food cards had a resurgence like 10 years ago, and have probably been flat to down since then.

[Tyruscobb]

Here is the simplistic analysis, as there are multiple factors at play - Supply and demand affect vintage card prices just like any other good. The 12+ year bull market has increased disposable income. The increased disposable income has brought more people into or back into the hobby, as well as increased budgets for the existing hobby members.

The increased collector numbers have increased vintage’s demand. The increased demand has skyrocketed prices. That is the macroeconomic analysis.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by kailes2872

I've been back in the game since late 2012. From what I have witnessed - and it is over simplified - Mantle and tier one stars have steadily gone up (Mays, Aaron, Clemente, and some HOF rookies). 2nd & 3rd tier stars have remained relatively flat. Commons have remained flat or down as more and more people are moving toward star collecting and away from set collecting.

What surprises me the most is that "rarer" cards such as the 54 Bowman Williams and #68 '59 Fleer Williams have not seen increases.

But a PSA 6 '69 Mantle was a $180 card in 2014. It is consistently over $300 now. And for the most part, the PSA 6 price for tier 1 stars in 2015 is now the PSA 5 price and in some cases the PSA 4 price.

I would tend do agree with this. Commons and low grade cards in general are falling by the wayside. Set collectors are a dying breed. There are a lot more flippers in the game now, too....and higher grade cards sell easier with a higher return so they are more sought after.

[G1911]

I can't think of a time the general vintage market has gone down and stayed down for more than a few months. Even in the recession prices rebounded quickly. Some individual cards will fluctuate, like the 'buyers groups' items, caramel cards a few years back. Usually it is more of a correction to a ridiculous short term price jump than an unexpected seemingly-random decline.

As set collectors are becoming increasingly rare and the generation that has a personal nostalgia for the heavily produced Topps/Bowman sets begin to leave the living in greater number each year, the prices for much of the post-war vintage cards not of major super HOF's may well decline. The new blood coming in is mostly focused on flipping and short term 'investing' of cards promoted among the Discord groups, which are the graded big stars.

In general, pre-war is pretty safe I think. Outside of T206/1933 Goudey and a few others, production was low enough that a very large collector base does not need to be maintained to maintain value, and the most common sets are the most popular anyways.

[JollyElm]

Do the prices on vintage ever go down?

Yes, a month after I buy anything, I will find the same card listed on ebay for a fraction of what I paid for it.

[donmuth]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Do the prices on vintage ever go down?

Yes, a month after I buy anything, I will find the same card listed on ebay for a fraction of what I paid for it.

Please go buy a T206 Cobb Bat Off with Polar Bear back then.




I had started saving for a T206 Cobb Bat Off awhile back and the prices have basically doubled on that card...

[bigred1]

I love my T3s but not much there, other than super star cards, and they dont even come up frequently

[davidb]

I started collecting one original "playing days" card of all HOF players (-4 currently) in 1994 and have seen solid increases over the last 25 years. As stated by others, the Wagner's, Cobb's, Ruth's and Gehrig's have witnessed strong ROI and lately even the low grade T205, T206 and T207 HOF players have appreciated greatly.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by swarmee

]
Pre-war has probably had sets go out of favor and dropped because of that. Most of the candy/food cards had a resurgence like 10 years ago, and have probably been flat to down since then.

+1 I agree with candy/food cards going out of fashion.

I would add that non standard size cards can go down too. Wheaties is not as strong as it once was. I bought a series 1 Wheaties Lou Gehrig for $160 at auction in February. That was a great price. 1936 R311 is not as strong, in my opinion. 1934 Butterfinger cards have increased in price only due to people grading them, but they all come back as 1 or 1.5, and nobody pays increased prices for that.

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[conor912]

Originally Posted by todeen

+1 I agree with candy/food cards going out of fashion.

R cards, with the exception of a few players, have certainly taken a beating the last several years, though i think that will start changing soon. As much as I love my tobacco cards, nothing is as Americana as a gum card, and they are an exceptional value right now.

[Johnny630]

Yes they will go down.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Yes they will go down.

I haven't seen red cobbys go down much in my short career. Same thing with Goudey Ruths.....big names keep their value most times (*that I have seen) while many others don't. Nineteenth century and regular candy and gum cards come to mind.

.

[ALR-bishop]

It seems some do and some don't

[Seven]

Granted, I can entirely be pulling this out of my rear end, my theory on the increase in vintage prices is that the money that would normally go towards vacations, and other luxuries like that are getting redirected towards old hobbies. That combined with the fact that a good majority of the population is now working from home, and has more time on their hands to surf the internet has led to the rise in prices. There's also people using cards as a vehicle for investments, but that's only certain cards and something that would probably warrant a separate discussion.

Do I think they'll go down? Well they won't plummet in value but I suspect that we'll see a small dip in things once people start getting back to work, and are able to travel again.

[Yoda]

I do know that solid mid-grade vintage cards can have had long periods of flat pricing, while higher grade cards of Hofer's and Stars tend to fluctuate more in price but with an overall upward trend, say, over the last 25 years. What I fail to understand is how anybody can pay over 4M for a 1/1 Mike Trout, still an active player, card. I am certain Vegas Dave must be quietly gloating, if he ever does anything quietly. I feel pretty certain he doesn't have sellers' remorse.

[yanks87]

I have to agree with most on here, I would see them flattening out, maybe a slight dip as people head back to work and unload some of the impulse buys. I also think there might be an interesting shift in people liquidating their modern purchases that are one injury away from being kindling, and reinvesting into the less volatile vintage market.

[glynparson]

Yes

[Exhibitman]

Cards are like anything else, cyclical. We are in a weird one right now but it will end eventually and there will be some bargains out there on the current hot cards. Pre-2008 for a while you couldn't touch an E card. Now, touchable.

That said, and setting aside nefarious bubble manipulators, the blue chip cards have been steady gainers over the long term. Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Williams, Mantle, Robinson, etc., no one has ever gone broke buying their cards and holding onto them. Some have stagnated, a few have decreased, most have increased steadily, a few have skyrocketed. If you collect a broad variety of superstars whose cards you are happy to have the hits will usually more than offset the misses. Has for me for decades. And let's be honest--this:



is sooo much more fun to own than this:

[Touch'EmAll]

Yes, some with big names have stagnated. My PSA Domino Discs of higher grade Cobb/W.Johnson/Matty, bought years ago have gone nowhere, even during this latest boom, basically zilch. That also goes for a couple nice S74 Silks I own of W.Johnson/Matty in SGC EX/EX-MT. Sigh, oh well. But the T206's up up & away !

[Leon]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Yes, some with big names have stagnated. My PSA Domino Discs of higher grade Cobb/W.Johnson/Matty, bought years ago have gone nowhere, even during this latest boom, basically zilch. That also goes for a couple nice S74 Silks I own of W.Johnson/Matty in SGC EX/EX-MT. Sigh, oh well. But the T206's up up & away !

That is what is known as the demand side of the equation, to me. I struggle greatly with super rare, awesome cards...because they aren't know about as much or collected as sets. The silks and discs suffer from this demand "devaluation".

.

[JustinD]

Nothing in life is guaranteed.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Nothing in life is guaranteed.

Just death and taxes. And my wife's uncle getting drunk at Thanksgiving and making racially insensitive comments.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Just death and taxes. And my wife's uncle getting drunk at Thanksgiving and making racially insensitive comments.

You can pick your nose but you can't pick your family. And it really does have to with demand more than supply.

As has been said things can go down but big time HOF'ers less so. I thought I paid a lot for this a year or two ago but now it would be a bargain at that price.


.

[Jetsfan]

Leon,
I’m always amazed at the mid and low grade gems you find!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

Leon,
I’m always amazed at the mid and low grade gems you find!

Thanks Adam. The lower the better!! Picked this up for $2139 delivered, a little over a year ago on the bay.....wish it would have been a 1

Wish I would have bought more red Cobbys a few years ago. I just don't see them going down ....but who knows?