Trout v. Legendary cards

[Tao_Moko]

Originally Posted by Jim65

Same as Ted Williams. And Trout has roughly 10 more years to play.

If comparisons are going to be made then they should probably be relative. Maybe compare Trout to Pucket? Ted was a Marine aviator and combat veteran. He was also one of the purest hitters in the game and followed an amazing, shortened, career as a manager and mentor. Little Mikey Trout can't fit in those britches. Ten more years of playing won't compare him to a Marine who happened to also play baseball.

[Goldin Auctions]

Here is. Great read. Everyone trying to understand what is going on in the business , and any vintage collector should read
And look at quote about Wagner and what it would sell for today....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...dg7DX-0L68fCr0

[Dpeck100]

The 1993 SP Derek Jeter PSA 10 was under a pop 10 and $6,500 when I got serious about buying cards in 2009. Considered the most over valued card in the hobby on every message board. At $15,000 it was insane and there was no where to go but down.

There is one of these and only one person can say they own the Super Refractor.

In 1986 the Donruss Jose Canseco was the card. Peaked at $120 in the Beckett. Anyone with enough money could get one. No matter how deep your pockets are only one person can say they own this card.

I don’t pretend to know if this is a good buy or a bad one but the price is a function of our current reality. How much would a Jordan rookie 1/1 be? There are 313 PSA 10’s at an average of $75,000 so it has a market cap of nearly 23.5 million just in that grade from PSA alone.

The closest substitute is a numbered to five card. The artificial scarcity has worked year after year with sports cards and this guy just happens to be the best player in the league at the moment.

If someone put a gun to my head and said you have to pick a direction my bet would be up.

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by Tao_Moko

If comparisons are going to be made then they should probably be relative. Maybe compare Trout to Pucket? Ted was a Marine aviator and combat veteran. He was also one of the purest hitters in the game and followed an amazing, shortened, career as a manager and mentor. Little Mikey Trout can't fit in those britches. Ten more years of playing won't compare him to a Marine who happened to also play baseball.

Not comparing them. Just pointing that they have the same amount of playoff experience. Judging players by postseason appearances is silly, is Ernie Banks not a great player?

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Jim65

Same as Ted Williams. And Trout has roughly 10 more years to play.

And Ted Williams sells for how much? Yeah, Trout has ten more years to play ... with the Angels.

Originally Posted by Jim65

Judging players by postseason appearances is silly, is Ernie Banks not a great player?

Not silly at all. I think when it comes to determining the value of any player, the most important criteria is how many championships he won. Why do people spend crazy money on Mantle, Ruth, Jordan, Gretzky, Brady and Pele? Because these guys were all winners, and they did it many times. Yes, Ernie Banks was a really gifted player, but he never won, and this is why his cards sell for peanuts compared to the other guys.

[sbfinley]

It's funny to me the disdain and annoyance that some vintage collectors (my primary focus) have towards modern cards and to some extent the prices they command. One is old, one is new. At the end of the day it's all pictures of dudes from a sport we love or like, and to 99.99% of the world spending even $500 on a baseball card is absurd. The current excitement in modern collecting world is great for the hobby because A) it cements the next generation of hobby members and B) the majority of "vintage" collectors start with current issues and begin working backwards.

Personally, I have no shock this card reached this value. If you even minimally follow the game on a daily basis it's clear he the best all-around player in the game and a multi-generational talent. Other members have mentioned names like Fidrych and Lindros and questioned his hobby future should he be injured tomorrow. It makes me wonder if they even currently follow the game. He's not a hyped prospect or the latest sensation. He is universally recognized as the best player in the game without question. In 8 full seasons (on primarily a losing team) he has finished 2,2,1,2,1,4,2,1 in MVP voting. He will be top 50 in career WAR for position players after 8.5 seasons following the abbreviated 2020 year. That stated, this is his singular most important card and given the current state of economic investments this price doesn't shock me. It might not be your cup of tea but be happy the hobby is rolling forward.

Originally Posted by Tao_Moko

If comparisons are going to be made then they should probably be relative. Maybe compare Trout to Pucket? Ted was a Marine aviator and combat veteran. He was also one of the purest hitters in the game and followed an amazing, shortened, career as a manager and mentor. Little Mikey Trout can't fit in those britches. Ten more years of playing won't compare him to a Marine who happened to also play baseball.

As someone who taught history (including the story of Ted Williams and his service during both WW2 and Korea) I completely understand both his importance to game and his contributions to our nation. But the comparison provided between Trout and Williams is about as relative as it gets in the context this of this entire thread and the comment the reply was referencing. The entire context of the comparison was their seminal greatness in the game of baseball and the comparative lack of team success. We can praise and celebrate Ted Williams' service to his country without belittling someone who lived in an entirely different time and circumstances. Also.... "Puckett" is a terrible analogy because A) he won 2 World Series Rings in 12 years and B) Trout is much much better statistically speaking.

[Republicaninmass]

What about all my stuff from the home shopping network in the 80s that was guanrarees to go up and I could retire with the proceeds? Just didnt say when I could retire, where, or how long!

[Tao_Moko]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

It's funny to me the disdain and annoyance that some vintage collectors (my primary focus) have towards modern cards and to some extent the prices they command. One is old, one is new. At the end of the day it's all pictures of dudes from a sport we love or like, and to 99.99% of the world spending even $500 on a baseball card is absurd. The current excitement in modern collecting world is great for the hobby because A) it cements the next generation of hobby members and B) the majority of "vintage" collectors start with current issues and begin working backwards.

Personally, I have no shock this card reached this value. If you even minimally follow the game on a daily basis it's clear he the best all-around player in the game and a multi-generational talent. Other members have mentioned names like Fidrych and Lindros and questioned his hobby future should he be injured tomorrow. It makes me wonder if they even currently follow the game. He's not a hyped prospect or the latest sensation. He is universally recognized as the best player in the game without question. In 8 full seasons (on primarily a losing team) he has finished 2,2,1,2,1,4,2,1 in MVP voting. He will be top 50 in career WAR for position players after 8.5 seasons following the abbreviated 2020 year. That stated, this is his singular most important card and given the current state of economic investments this price doesn't shock me. It might not be your cup of tea but be happy the hobby is rolling forward.




As someone who taught history (including the story of Ted Williams and his service during both WW2 and Korea) I completely understand both his importance to game and his contributions to our nation. But the comparison provided between Trout and Williams is about as relative as it gets in the context this of this entire thread and the comment the reply was referencing. The entire context of the comparison was their seminal greatness in the game of baseball and the comparative lack of team success. We can praise and celebrate Ted Williams' service to his country without belittling someone who lived in an entirely different time and circumstances. Also.... "Puckett" is a terrible analogy because A) he won 2 World Series Rings in 12 years and B) Trout is much much better statistically speaking.

You're correct. Comparing him to Puckett was a huge mistake. Trout has 1351 hits and a .304 so it's unlikely he improves his BA over the next three seasons and gets a thousand hits to match Puckett. He may with longevity do it, but doesn't seem on track at present. I wish Trout the best, but he's got a long ways to go to be in the same breath of the greats. Relative to card value - they are only worth what someone will pay so apparently Trout is worth it to some. Can't argue when there's no right answer. I'm not much older than Trout and I fought in two theaters as a Marine so he could have too but sports and money were more important. He probably would have been great to have on my team. It's a good reminder that these are just athletes playing a game and none of their pictures should be worth millions. To think what I could do with $3.2 million. Wouldn't be buy baseball cards.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by Tao_Moko

You're correct. Comparing him to Puckett was a huge mistake. Trout has 1351 hits and a .304 so it's unlikely he improves his BA over the next three seasons and gets a thousand hits to match Puckett. He may with longevity do it, but doesn't seem on track at present. I wish Trout the best, but he's got a long ways to go to be in the same breath of the greats. Relative to card value - they are only worth what someone will pay so apparently Trout is worth it to some. Can't argue when there's no right answer. I'm not much older than Trout and I fought in two theaters as a Marine so he could have too but sports and money were more important. He probably would have been great to have on my team. It's a good reminder that these are just athletes playing a game and none of their pictures should be worth millions. To think what I could do with $3.2 million. Wouldn't be buy baseball cards.

As someone who comes from
A gold star marine family I thank you for your service but this attack on mike trout is beyond ignorant. And yes ted was a great patriot but he was also an asshole to many of his fans. They didn’t call him the spitter because he was a nice guy. And he was very arrogant wouldn’t even recognize the crowds appreciation after his final hr. Yes was an amazing person in many ways but also an asshole in many. I have never heard anything but compliments on Mr. trout and his interactions with fans. Military service is honorable but that doesn’t mean you are a better person simply for having done it. And I hate to break it but very few people collect cards of military heroes compared to those of athletic heroes.

[MattyC]

This hobby is in a very bad place. Shady pump and dump groups no different than slimeball boiler room hucksters. A veritable cottage industry of chop shops supplying TPGs with trimmed submissions by the boatload. The selfish shaking pom poms at the ever rising fake sales of doctored cards because they like the value of their collections going up. Then the marks believing the hype who go and buy into a market fueled on so much shade, thereby contributing real sales after the fake. It has nothing anymore to do with the games or their legends or the cards— it’s just some guys out there trying to 2x or 10x their money in a fast way.

[puckpaul]

Well, when you print $7 trillion, stuff happens. Stock market is like this too. See TSLA!

But many cards were undervalued if demand increased a little. We’ll see what happens. World is fragile, perhaps, but as we continue to print money and dollars get more worthless, this stuff will continue.

[Yoda]

Having lived through a few vintage card booms and busts, I would only offer one piece of advise during uncertain times, which we are certainly experiencing at the moment, and that is to buy value players and hold them when shocks come. Given their records and life stories, Mantle Cobb, Ruth and Gehrig cards will always hold value in tough times, but so will Matty, Wojo and Hornsby, Foxx, Clemente, Koufax, Mays etc.
As far as the Trout card is concerned, I just don't know, but the 4m price tag certainly represents a paradigm shift in the new card market.

[Tao_Moko]

What "attack" are you talking about? Ignorant? Way to go man, really nice and professional response. Re-read what I wrote. Trout is just not there yet as a player compared to those on the cards mentioned in this thread. He is not even tracking to match a mid-tier HOFer. Otherwise, I just responded to you and stated a fact. Wasn't looking for gratitude. He too was of fighting age during war time. So, that was not a fair comparison to Williams because Williams fought. I could likely bet my farm that Trout never hits .400 and unlikely to end up with comparable career stats. Doesn't mean I think he sucks. This conversation cannot really be had for another ten years or so. Lastly, I agreed that the card was worth what it brought. Simply because it sold for that amount. May not be worth that later, but for now it is. Signing off.

Originally Posted by glynparson

As someone who comes from
A gold star marine family I thank you for your service but this attack on mike trout is beyond ignorant. And yes ted was a great patriot but he was also an asshole to many of his fans. They didn’t call him the spitter because he was a nice guy. And he was very arrogant wouldn’t even recognize the crowds appreciation after his final hr. Yes was an amazing person in many ways but also an asshole in many. I have never heard anything but compliments on Mr. trout and his interactions with fans. Military service is honorable but that doesn’t mean you are a better person simply for having done it. And I hate to break it but very few people collect cards of military heroes compared to those of athletic heroes.

[Throttlesteer]

A lot of money for a guy in the same league as Frank Thomas. That card only has downward to go.

[maniac_73]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

A lot of money for a guy in the same league as Frank Thomas. That card only has downward to go.

Frank Thomas was not a 5 tool player

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

A lot of money for a guy in the same league as Frank Thomas. That card only has downward to go.

Most comparable by age is Mickey Mantle. I know, according to some here Mantle is way better because he single-handedly took crappy Yankees teams and led them to the promised land. On the other hand, Trout has lost with some loaded teams. Oh, wait...

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

A lot of money for a guy in the same league as Frank Thomas. That card only has downward to go.

That assertion gets made every single time on here when a modern card sells for a staggering figure. Did you foresee the card rising 10 fold when it was a $400,000 card?

Maybe the value will go up and maybe it will go down, but these assertions that modern cards will automatically go down in value have been proven wrong a whole lot in recent years.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Tao_Moko

He is not even tracking to match a mid-tier HOFer.

Say what? He's on track to be a top-tier HOFer. No one - no one - has 7 top 2 MVPs finishes in their first 8 seasons. And his 8th year he was the frontrunner for MVP when he got hurt. Played 3/4 of a season, still finished 4th.

It's weird the way baseball fans simply refuse to believe current players can possibly be as great as their heroes of the past. But let's be clear - Trout is as great as anybody we'll ever see.

You mentioned Trout won't hit .400. You're right, he won't. But Ted wouldn't hit .400 today either. Ted played in a completely different environment - not integrated, no one throwing 100 mph (let alone dozens of guys), no short relievers, no cross-country travel, barely any night games and so on.

As for manufactured scarcity, yep, it's an issue. Not a new one, given the Goudey Lajoie, etc. Would *I* pay $4m for a Trout rookie? No. But I totally get why somebody would.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Say what? He's on track to be a top-tier HOFer. No one - no one - has 7 top 2 MVPs finishes in their first 8 seasons. And his 8th year he was the frontrunner for MVP when he got hurt. Played 3/4 of a season, still finished 4th.

It's weird the way baseball fans simply refuse to believe current players can possibly be as great as their heroes of the past. But let's be clear - Trout is as great as anybody we'll ever see.

You mentioned Trout won't hit .400. You're right, he won't. But Ted wouldn't hit .400 today either. Ted played in a completely different environment - not integrated, no one throwing 100 mph (let alone dozens of guys), no short relievers, no cross-country travel, barely any night games and so on.

As for manufactured scarcity, yep, it's an issue. Not a new one, given the Goudey Lajoie, etc. Would *I* pay $4m for a Trout rookie? No. But I totally get why somebody would.

Yeah, but Ted was a marine and so was the poster who mentioned that. Mike had a chance to to be a marine but he decided to take the easy way out and is therefore less than. That’s at least what i got.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Say what? He's on track to be a top-tier HOFer. No one - no one - has 7 top 2 MVPs finishes in their first 8 seasons. And his 8th year he was the frontrunner for MVP when he got hurt. Played 3/4 of a season, still finished 4th.

It's weird the way baseball fans simply refuse to believe current players can possibly be as great as their heroes of the past. But let's be clear - Trout is as great as anybody we'll ever see.

You mentioned Trout won't hit .400. You're right, he won't. But Ted wouldn't hit .400 today either. Ted played in a completely different environment - not integrated, no one throwing 100 mph (let alone dozens of guys), no short relievers, no cross-country travel, barely any night games and so on.

As for manufactured scarcity, yep, it's an issue. Not a new one, given the Goudey Lajoie, etc. Would *I* pay $4m for a Trout rookie? No. But I totally get why somebody would.

Yes, but he hit .388 at age 38 a decade after integration. There were pitchers who threw 100 mph, Ryne Duran for one who also was a short reliever. Ted didn't get to play in a league watered down by expansion either. Ted absolutely could hit .400 today. Gwynn, Brett and Carew all came close. Trout also won't come close to Ted's .344 BA or .634 SLG.