Mantle or Others?

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by rats60

It has tripled in value over the last year and is now the most valuable normal print run rookie card, passing the 51B Mantle. Only the 52T Mantle is more popular and expensive among cards with a normal print run. Mantle's popularity is based on being the star of 50s Yankees when card collecting became popular. Those kids grew up and drove the price of that card with their disposal income. As that generation dies off, it is up to further generations to drive demand, but they have no personal connection to that card.

Robinson's legacy is more lasting as the player who broke the color barrier. He has appeal that goes beyond sports and kids who collected cards. I wonder how much the current BLM and social justice movement has in the current run up in price and these things are not going away. There is also the potential for generations of minorities who have been depressed economically to see more disposal income because of these movements. It has been joked that card shows are a bunch of overweight old white men. What happens if they start to look more like America?

I tend to agree with this.

Mantle just doesn’t have any claim to importance other than having been the most popular player for a few years when a lot of baby boomers were kids and collected cards.

He isn’t Robinson who broke the color barrier.

He isn’t Ruth who revolutionized the game.

He isn’t seriously mentioned when arguments about the best player ever come up. Its hard to even make the case that he was the best player in his own time.

He didn’t set any major records.

It really does seem like his relative popularity in the hobby has nowhere to go but down once all the people who loved him when they were kids pass on and future generations ask themselves why this guy is so key.

[Tomi]

Are you guys serious? His popularity will go down once his fans start to pass on? Maybe go on baseball reference and see the stats Mantle led the league in his career. The guy was an absolute monster. Even with a broken down body and missing games he still was a league leader. Legendary post season HR's and 7 WS championships. Cobb and Ruth seem to getting more and more popular all the time and their fans have been dead for a long time.

[davidan]

Originally Posted by Tomi

Are you guys serious? His popularity will go down once his fans start to pass on? Maybe go on baseball reference and see the stats Mantle led the league in his career. The guy was an absolute monster. Even with a broken down body and missing games he still was a league leader. Legendary post season HR's and 7 WS championships. Cobb and Ruth seem to getting more and more popular all the time and their fans have been dead for a long time.

+1 my thoughts exactly. Mantle will always be a solid bet and an icon.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Tomi

Are you guys serious? His popularity will go down once his fans start to pass on? Maybe go on baseball reference and see the stats Mantle led the league in his career. The guy was an absolute monster. Even with a broken down body and missing games he still was a league leader. Legendary post season HR's and 7 WS championships. Cobb and Ruth seem to getting more and more popular all the time and their fans have been dead for a long time.

Go look at Ted Williams. He missed 5 years in the military, yet Black Ink Williams 122, Mantle 62. Williams used to be more than both Mantle and Robinson and now he is less. No one is saying that Mantles are going to drop, but Jackie catching him is definitely realistic.

[Exhibitman]

We should not conflate fame of specific players transcending the sport and impacting value of the cards with the fame of specific cards in the hobby transcending the player and impacting the value. Ruth, Gehrig, Robinson, Jordan, Ali, those guys transcend the sport. If you look at them in terms of global card issue diversity, there is no contest: Muhammad Ali has cards issued in every corner of the world, and Jordan is a distant second.

I don't think Mantle does, but Mantle's 1952 Topps card transcends the player within the hobby. it has been the marquee postwar baseball card for 40 years--the major boom in price started in around 1980--and is likely to remain so. It may very well be overtaken in terms of value by the MJ or LeBron RCs in the future because of the younger skew of their fans, the international sport market, and the demise of actual Mantle fans.

[Tomi]

Originally Posted by rats60

Go look at Ted Williams. He missed 5 years in the military, yet Black Ink Williams 122, Mantle 62. Williams used to be more than both Mantle and Robinson and now he is less. No one is saying that Mantles are going to drop, but Jackie catching him is definitely realistic.

He missed three years to military not five but still played a year longer than Mantle (19 yrs. to 18 yrs.)He would be treated differently if he won titles and had a long and successful post season career, but never won anything. You could also put Stan Musial on the list also, very little respect for his accomplishments compared to others.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Tomi

He missed three years to military not five but still played a year longer than Mantle (19 yrs. to 18 yrs.)He would be treated differently if he won titles and had a long and successful post season career, but never won anything. You could also put Stan Musial on the list also, very little respect for his accomplishments compared to others.

Williams spent most of 1952-53 in the Korean War. He only played 43 games total those 2 seasons and those 5 seasons were in his prime. Williams won the Triple Crown in 42 and 47 on both sides of his 3 years in WW2 as well as AL MVP in 46. He led the AL in OBP/SLG/OPS+ in 1951 and 1954 on both sides of his Korean War service. Mantle played over 100 more games in his career because of Williams 5 years in the military.

Ty Cobb never won a championship and didn’t perform up to his standards in the postseason. That hasn’t hurt his card prices. Williams went to a down franchise that hadn’t won anything in 20 years. The one year they did make the series, Williams hurt his elbow and played injured in the Series. It is hard to hold that against him, it is a team sport. Also, lack of postseason success isn’t hurting Mike Trout Card values either.

On the other hand, Mantle ended up on a franchise that was in the middle of 5 WS Championships in a row and had won 13 in 28 years when he joined them. Then, before the 1955 season, Arnold Johnson, one of the owners of Yankee Stadium, bought the A’s with the help of the Yankees ownership and turned them into a Yankees farm team. The Yankees proceeded to win 9 AL pennants in 10 years. The 1961 Yankees considered one of the best teams of all time had 10 players Johnson had “traded” to the Yankees. Mantle’s rings mean a lot to Yankees fans of 51-62, but in the long run they won’t to those not alive during that time.

Stan Musial has 3 rings, 3 MVPs and better numbers than Mantle, but his cards are even cheaper. When I started collecting in the 60s, Williams and Musial were the guys everyone wanted most, now not so much. It can happen to Mantle also.

[MattyC]

Hi Tomi,

I did just what you proposed. Spent 34k on a dead centered 52T. It has more than doubled since that day.

An SGC 4 dead centered on eBay just closed at 58k before any sales tax, as a latest reference.

Can't go wrong with any great, "blue chip" iconic player you love, and most of them have "that" key card which other collectors/investors in that player will want.

For my money, I love baseball and so I collect lots of the greats. But all the guys I know in their 30s today grew up like I did (I'm 43) revering that 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle image.

And we will be buying for several decades to come.

Edit to add: the 49 Bowman Jackie is also a very cool early Jackie card and for many one of his "must haves." Might be able to get a nice PSA 1 Mick and a nice 49 Bowman Jackie!

Warmest Regards,

Matt

[Seven]

Originally Posted by rats60

Go look at Ted Williams. He missed 5 years in the military, yet Black Ink Williams 122, Mantle 62. Williams used to be more than both Mantle and Robinson and now he is less. No one is saying that Mantles are going to drop, but Jackie catching him is definitely realistic.

I think Jackie catching Mantle's cards, outside the 52 is very realistic as well. I think Mantle's name will still be relevant, even as some time passes because of how often Trout's compared to The Mick.

I think the black ink argument is a little disingenuous to Mantle at least in terms of what we know of stats today, but that's a different argument, the only player in a post war era to mirror peak Ted production was Bonds and he did it with a little extra help. But both are arguments for a different discussion!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think Jackie catching Mantle's cards, outside the 52 is very realistic as well. I think Mantle's name will still be relevant, even as some time passes because of how often Trout's compared to The Mick.

I think the black ink argument is a little disingenuous to Mantle at least in terms of what we know of stats today, but that's a different argument, the only player in a post war era to mirror peak Ted production was Bonds and he did it with a little extra help. But both are arguments for a different discussion!

Tomi said to go look at baseball reference and see all the times Mantle led the league. Black ink is the measure of leading the league, so it is a valid point. I don’t know what other stats you want to bring up, but WAR Williams 121.9 Mantle 110.2 even though Mantle played 109 games more. OPS + Williams 191 Mantle 172 despite Williams spending 5 prime years in the military. Any other “modern” stats I should use?

The point is the 49 Leaf Jackie catching the 52 Mantle. The populations are similar with a few more Mantles graded, 1695 to 1354, but numbers at higher grades 6+, 7+ & 8+ very similar. So, if Jackie’s demand reaches Mantle levels, it will. Mantle is never going away, it doesn’t mean others can’t match his popularity and the dramatic rise in Jackie’s popularity make that a real possibility.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by rats60

Tomi said to go look at baseball reference and see all the times Mantle led the league. Black ink is the measure of leading the league, so it is a valid point. I don’t know what other stats you want to bring up, but WAR Williams 121.9 Mantle 110.2 even though Mantle played 109 games more. OPS + Williams 191 Mantle 172 despite Williams spending 5 prime years in the military. Any other “modern” stats I should use?

The point is the 49 Leaf Jackie catching the 52 Mantle. The populations are similar with a few more Mantles graded, 1695 to 1354, but numbers at higher grades 6+, 7+ & 8+ very similar. So, if Jackie’s demand reaches Mantle levels, it will. Mantle is never going away, it doesn’t mean others can’t match his popularity and the dramatic rise in Jackie’s popularity make that a real possibility.

I'm not disagreeing on either point really. From the few books I've read and articles I've seen on advanced metrics, wRC+ for offensive production is very good. Calculates for a neutral park environment. Williams still has the edge over Mantle, but Williams has the edge over everyone Post War. I was saying black ink has a habit of underrating players at times because, you could have a fantastic all around player that might not lead the league in every offensive category.

Regardless concerning your second point, the next decade or so is where I think we see how this argument plays out. Will be interesting to see.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by rats60

The point is the 49 Leaf Jackie catching the 52 Mantle. The populations are similar with a few more Mantles graded, 1695 to 1354, but numbers at higher grades 6+, 7+ & 8+ very similar. So, if Jackie’s demand reaches Mantle levels, it will. Mantle is never going away, it doesn’t mean others can’t match his popularity and the dramatic rise in Jackie’s popularity make that a real possibility.

This and thanks for clarifying.

[bswhiten]

My prediction - 52T Mick will sell for more for at least the next 50 years.

[Neal]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I tend to agree with this.

Mantle just doesn’t have any claim to importance other than having been the most popular player for a few years when a lot of baby boomers were kids and collected cards.

He isn’t Robinson who broke the color barrier.

He isn’t Ruth who revolutionized the game.

He isn’t seriously mentioned when arguments about the best player ever come up. Its hard to even make the case that he was the best player in his own time.

He didn’t set any major records.

It really does seem like his relative popularity in the hobby has nowhere to go but down once all the people who loved him when they were kids pass on and future generations ask themselves why this guy is so key.

I disagree completely. At the very least, his popularity remains the same. If Mantle becomes less popular in the hobby, the others follow.

Answering the OP .... I'd buy the best 52 Topps Mantle I could find. A close second would be a three pack of Jackie, 54 Aaron, and the Babe.

[investinrookies]

Nice 52T Mantles continue to set higher prices, an SGC 6 just sold for nearly $112k at hunt today. Centering and registration were good, the nicer examples are setting a new tier of pricing well beyond the current VCP averages and rightfully so for the card that defines the hobby.