Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

That’s crazy! If it wasn’t for the expansion teams he wouldn’t even be close to 22nd best lefty pitching WAR.

Correction: since WAR mathematics takes into consideration the results of peers within the same seasons, it is likely that expansion team domination is already included. So 22nd best lefty is probably accurate.

Really dilutes the narrative of a good 4-year run though.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

Correction: since WAR mathematics takes into consideration the results of peers within the same seasons, it is likely that expansion team domination is already included. So 22nd best lefty is probably accurate.

Really dilutes the narrative of a good 4-year run though.

You keep repeating this highly inaccurate "simply the 22nd best lefty" representation of the WAR numbers. It's a lifetime cumulative total, so obviously Koufax's WAR is far less than many other lefties (since he pitched half many innings as most other all-time greats).

Look at ERA+ and WAR per season. Those represent how effective someone was

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

You keep repeating this highly inaccurate "simply the 22nd best lefty" representation of the WAR numbers. It's a lifetime cumulative total, so obviously Koufax's WAR is far less than many other lefties (since he pitched half many innings as most other all-time greats).

Look at ERA+ and WAR per season. Those represent how effective someone was

Since it is "the best lefty of all time" and not "the best 4 year consecutive peak of all time", using lifetime totals hardly seems unfair as a metric.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by G1911

Since it is "the best lefty of all time" and not "the best 4 year consecutive peak of all time", using lifetime totals hardly seems unfair as a metric.

His peak has nothing to do with that. It's just about the problem with llining up who was the "best" based only on lifetime WAR total.

Would you say that Phil Niekro's career should be considered superior to Bob Gibson or Pedro Martinez (simply because he pitched so long)? Or was twice the pitcher that Ron Guidry was?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

His peak has nothing to do with that. It's just about the problem with llining up who was the "best" based only on lifetime WAR total.

Would you say that Phil Niekro should be considered a better pitcher than Bob Gibson or Pedro Martinez? Or twice as good as Ron Guidry?

Niekro being twice as valuable as Guidry, sounds about right. Guidry had a short peak, short career. Niekro was effective for an almost absurd amount of time. I wouldn't take him over Gibson, but Pedro also had a very short career (short term peak only, I would probably take Pedro as #1 all time but he's nowhere near my #1 for a career because his career was so short). Niekro hurled twice as many innings as Pedro. Was Pedro twice as good as Niekro? His dominance was such that I could see a good argument either way.

Gibson hurled 1,600 innings less than Niekro, so I don't think it's unreasonable to trade some length for less dominant effectiveness. Again, I can see it either way. Every pitching judgement here is a trade off between dominance vs. more effective seasons.

Niekro, Gibson and Pedro are close in career WAR, but none of them are close in Innings. If anything, this seems to show it does reward career dominance and not just length, as Pedro with half the career service time is just a tad below Niekro.

I'm not a fan of WAR, but when the discussion is all time, career statistics like WAR are not unfair to use.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by G1911

Niekro, Gibson and Pedro are close in career WAR, but none of them are close in Innings. If anything, this seems to show it does reward career dominance and not just length, as Pedro with half the career service time is just a tad below Niekro.

It only "rewards" Pedro's career dominance (when it comes to HOF quality pitchers like him/Koufax/Guidry who had a short career). And only to a certain extent, because Niekro's is still noticeably higher.

Pedro 2827 IP 83.9 WAR
Gibson 3884 IP 89.2 WAR
Niekro 5404 IP 95.9 WAR

Mostly just shows how unthinkably great Pedro was. rather than career WAR being always being a close enough metric of greatness when the career length/dominance dichotomy shows up. The main disagreement here is that when it comes to who was the "best", you put more weight on the career length side of that, while I do the same with the dominance side. And as you've mentioned, that balance is somewhat subjective as long as someone doesn't go too far one way or the other.

As far as Pedro goes, the above is not surprising though. Have always thought that he is the most talented and effective pitcher the game has ever seen.

[darwinbulldog]

Grove(s)

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

It only "rewards" Pedro's career dominance (when it comes to HOF quality pitchers like him/Koufax/Guidry who had a short career). And only to a certain extent, because Niekro's is still noticeably higher.

Pedro 2827 IP 83.9 WAR
Gibson 3884 IP 89.2 WAR
Niekro 5404 IP 95.9 WAR

Mostly just shows how unthinkably great Pedro was. rather than career WAR being always being a close enough metric of greatness when the career length/dominance dichotomy shows up. The main disagreement here is that when it comes to who was the "best", you put more weight on the career length side of that, while I do the same with the dominance side. And as you've mentioned, that balance is somewhat subjective as long as someone doesn't go too far one way or the other.

As far as Pedro goes, the above is not surprising though. Have always thought that he is the most talented and effective pitcher the game has ever seen.

Pedro was the best peak of my lifetime, I think, but I would pick Maddux, Johnson and Clemens over him of his direct contemporaries anyways.

There are reasonable different values one can make on peak vs. career, but I don't think it matters that much to the question here. Grove's peak is the equal of Sandy's, AND he has a much, much longer peak and career. Kershaw's peak is superior, I think, as well. It's not like Sandy is unique and unbeatably the best peak lefty and we are picking a guy like Niekro over him. We are picking other dominant pitchers that also pitched twice as long as he did.

[brewing]

Jay Jaffe's JAWS averages Career WAR and 7 year peak WAR

Grove 86.1
Randy Johnson 81.3
Spahn 75.8
Carlton 72.2
Plank 71.1
Glavine 62.4
Average HoF 61.6
Kershaw 58.8
Newhouser 57.6
Koufax 47.4


Pitching WAR for best 7 seasons (not consecutive)
Grove 65.6
Johnson 61.5
Carlton 54.3
Newhouser 52.6
Spahn 51.4
Plank 51.1
Average HoF 50.0
Kershaw 49.7
Koufax 46.0
Glavine 44.1

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml

Unless the criteria is 4 consecutive years, I don't see the argument that Koufax is the discussion of the greatest all time.

[OldOriole]

This just absolutely seals it for me. It's Grove. Also glad to see Plank made the top 5.

Originally Posted by brewing

Jay Jaffe's JAWS averages Career WAR and 7 year peak WAR

Grove 86.1
Randy Johnson 81.3
Spahn 75.8
Carlton 72.2
Plank 71.1
Glavine 62.4
Average HoF 61.6
Kershaw 58.8
Newhouser 57.6
Koufax 47.4


Pitching WAR for best 7 seasons (not consecutive)
Grove 65.6
Johnson 61.5
Carlton 54.3
Newhouser 52.6
Spahn 51.4
Plank 51.1
Average HoF 50.0
Kershaw 49.7
Koufax 46.0
Glavine 44.1

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml

Unless the criteria is 4 consecutive years, I don't see the argument that Koufax is the discussion of the greatest all time.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

You keep repeating this highly inaccurate "simply the 22nd best lefty" representation of the WAR numbers. It's a lifetime cumulative total, so obviously Koufax's WAR is far less than many other lefties (since he pitched half many innings as most other all-time greats).

Look at ERA+ and WAR per season. Those represent how effective someone was

Alright, let's go with that. Warren Spahn has a 92.5 career WAR. That's an average of 4.40 over 21 years. And his WAR was actually negative his rookie year. He had a 93 WAR over his last 20 seasons - 4.65.

Sandy's WAR per is 4.42.

So...12 years of 4.42 or 21 years of 4.40 (20 of 4.65)? Easy choice.

Also, FWIW, WAR says that Steve Carlton's 1972 was the best year for any lefty in the live ball era.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Alright, let's go with that. Warren Spahn has a 92.5 career WAR. That's an average of 4.40 over 21 years. And his WAR was actually negative his rookie year. He had a 93 WAR over his last 20 seasons - 4.65.

Sandy's WAR per is 4.42.

So...12 years of 4.42 or 21 years of 4.40 (20 of 4.65)? Easy choice.

Also, FWIW, WAR says that Steve Carlton's 1972 was the best year for any lefty in the live ball era.

I never said that I would choose Koufax over someone like Spahn. There or anywhere.

The point was that simply saying "he's not even in the top 20, just because of this cumulative career number" is not that logical and knocks him down too far. Not that I consider him higher on the list than a top 5 guy. Big difference

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Alright, let's go with that. Warren Spahn has a 92.5 career WAR. That's an average of 4.40 over 21 years. And his WAR was actually negative his rookie year. He had a 93 WAR over his last 20 seasons - 4.65.

Sandy's WAR per is 4.42.

So...12 years of 4.42 or 21 years of 4.40 (20 of 4.65)? Easy choice.

Also, FWIW, WAR says that Steve Carlton's 1972 was the best year for any lefty in the live ball era.

FWAR also says that Koufax had 3 seasons better than any year Grove had. Koufax had 4 years that were better than any year Spahn had. That includes Koufax's 1961 season which several here are trying to discount as being mediocre. Koufax's 1962 and 1964 seasons are real close to Spahn's best year only because Koufax missed time due to injuries. It is an easy choice, Koufax for 6 brilliant years is better than a lesser pitcher for a longer period of time.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

You keep repeating this highly inaccurate "simply the 22nd best lefty" representation of the WAR numbers. It's a lifetime cumulative total, so obviously Koufax's WAR is far less than many other lefties (since he pitched half many innings as most other all-time greats).

Look at ERA+ and WAR per season. Those represent how effective someone was

If you're only comparing peak, Grove wins ERA+ and WAR by fairly significant margins. Hence, vehement Koufax supporters saying WAR is a "garbage stat." I'm sure they'll consider ERA+ to be useless, also. They only want to count specific counting stats in a vacuum, with no allowances for differences in era, defenses, parks, or anything else. Kinda like the people who say Pete Rose is a better hitter than Ty Cobb because he got more hits.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

If you're only comparing peak, Grove wins ERA+ and WAR by fairly significant margins. Hence, vehement Koufax supporters saying WAR is a "garbage stat." I'm sure they'll consider ERA+ to be useless, also. They only want to count specific counting stats in a vacuum, with no allowances for differences in era, defenses, parks, or anything else. Kinda like the people who say Pete Rose is a better hitter than Ty Cobb because he got more hits.

That's why, even while saying that "he's not a top 20 all time lefty" opinions are too far-fetched, I'm not a vehement Koufax supporter either Plenty of middle ground.

And don't even get me started on how overrated Pete Rose is. No middle-ground on that stance!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

If you're only comparing peak, Grove wins ERA+ and WAR by fairly significant margins. Hence, vehement Koufax supporters saying WAR is a "garbage stat." I'm sure they'll consider ERA+ to be useless, also. They only want to count specific counting stats in a vacuum, with no allowances for differences in era, defenses, parks, or anything else. Kinda like the people who say Pete Rose is a better hitter than Ty Cobb because he got more hits.

False, Koufax had 3 seasons with a higher fWAR than any season Grove had. From 1961- 1966 Koufax had more fWAR than any 6 seasons you want to cherry pick from Grove's career even with Koufax missing time due to injury.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by rats60

False, Koufax had 3 seasons with a higher fWAR than any season Grove had. From 1961- 1966 Koufax had more fWAR than any 6 seasons you want to cherry pick from Grove's career even with Koufax missing time due to injury.

OOOOHHH, I see. fWAR= good stat, bWAR= garbage stat. And I'm the one cherry picking...