FURTHER UPDATED -- T206 524-Card Set Complete & On PSA Registry

[PhillyFan1883]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

SMR for t206 Wagner psa 1 is $550k so should sell somewhere in that vicinity.

SMR is not a reliable source to gauge the price of a historic card like this. Honestly, I think its safe to say SMR is not reliable source for any card for that matter. A PSA Authentic with three of the 4 boarders chopped off sold in late 2019 for 540k. That puts the mile high copy coming up well above that. You would have to think 150k-450k more. Check out vintage card prices dot com to see actual sales of any vintage card.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by PhillyFan1883

SMR is not a reliable source to gauge the price of a historic card like this. Honestly, I think its safe to say SMR is not reliable source for any card for that matter. A PSA Authentic with three of the 4 boarders chopped off sold in late 2019 for 540k. That puts the mile high copy coming up well above that. You would have to think 150k-450k more. Check out vintage card prices dot com to see actual sales of any vintage card.

With the large jumps in prices of modern cards, it will be interesting to see if that translates to the Wagners. A Trout card just sold for 922k, why wouldn’t a Wagner sell for more?

[Edwolf1963]

Smh, I have several of these laying around. Mine even say "RP" which I'm sure stands for "Real Pure" so I know they're authentic

.. seriously, congratulations and thanks for sharing!

[PhillyFan1883]

Originally Posted by rats60

With the large jumps in prices of modern cards, it will be interesting to see if that translates to the Wagners. A Trout card just sold for 922k, why wouldn’t a Wagner sell for more?

I agree whole heartedly my friend. My suspicion is the Mile high Wagner coming up will trade for 750k-1mil.

I just go back to the copy with three boarders trimmed off trading for the amount of a nice house in the burbs as my new gauge. Although that sale felt like pent up demand also because the card had not traded in a while, but none the less their is a new comp that suggest a big number..

[Howe’s Hunter]

A private sale I understand the concept of. But how in the world does it happen?

Ryan is sitting at home and decides, “Hey, it’s about time I buy a Wagner and a Doyle rarity.” You don’t just go on eBay and find those, so how do you even know where to start looking, or who to contact?

Or was it more Powell was sitting at home and said, “I’ve had that Wagner, and the Doyle long enough. Think I’ll sell them. Hmm, bet Ryan would want them, think I’ll give him a call.”

I’m really glad that both parties seem happy with the outcome of their deal, but my mind is just reeling trying to figure out how something like this happens.

(If by chance there is a secret Wagner Owners Society (secret handshake, meeting once a year at an undisclosed location, etc.), if anybody talks to the owner of Howe’s old Piedmont Wagner, please tell them I would really like a color photocopy or scan, as that is the closest I’ll ever get to it. Thanks)

[Jdoggs]

Originally Posted by PhillyFan1883

SMR is not a reliable source to gauge the price of a historic card like this. Honestly, I think its safe to say SMR is not reliable source for any card for that matter. A PSA Authentic with three of the 4 boarders chopped off sold in late 2019 for 540k. That puts the mile high copy coming up well above that. You would have to think 150k-450k more. Check out vintage card prices dot com to see actual sales of any vintage card.

Well SMR for psa 2 Wagner is $1,350,000 and mile high sold one for that price last October so I wouldn’t say SMR is not a reliable source for any card for that matter.

[RCMcKenzie]

Ed, a poster asked in the T206 bst if anyone had a Wagner because he knew someone who wanted to buy one. Powell said he had one. Ryan posted he wanted one. That's why I called it a bst sale, and not a private sale. I stood up for the guy that got trashed for guessing the sale price. They both seem happy with the deal, so all is good. Rob

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

Ed, a poster asked in the T206 bst if anyone had a Wagner because he knew someone who wanted to buy one. Powell said he had one. Ryan posted he wanted one. That's why I called it a bst sale, and not a private sale. I stood up for the guy that got trashed for guessing the sale price. They both seem happy with the deal, so all is good. Rob

This is generally correct. I had been after a Wagner for some time and put some feelers out. Then, a few people posted on BST they wanted a Wagner, so I jumped in and posted myself. At this same time, Powell posted on one listing that he had a Wagner. I reached out to Powell, we spoke on the phone, and we made a deal. Note, however, that cards like this just done get sold/bought that easily; this is true with $5,000 cards, let alone T206 Wagners. Both parties needed to get comfortable with one another and pre-qualify. I was able to learn who Powell is through common acquaintances as well as through articles, especially the ones about his collection in the Detroit Institute of Arts. Also, I became comfortable about the provenance of the card (the Connecticut Wagner). After I did my research on the Powell and the card, I was ready. I expect Powell did the same about me, as I know several people vouched for my character and ability to close the deal.

Regarding the Doyle, while I was on the phone with Powell working out a deal on the Wagner, Powell mentioned he would probably just break up the balance of the set now because it was no longer 524. Naturally, I asked if he would sell the Doyle, and he said if he got $X, he would. So I offered his asking price and he accepted. Going in I had ZERO expectation or hope of getting both cards, but when the opportunity presented itself, I had to act - who knows if I would ever get another chance to own a Doyle. So, I cut a deal on both the Wagner and Doyle, and that's how that happened.

With respect to the post by the guy who "guessed" the price: His initial post was much more of a statement, not a question, and implied that he knew the transaction intimately and what the price was, which he did not His post was amended (to what it currently says) only after I "trashed" him. Chris, I do accept your apology, but only warn that words have meaning and how they are written is important -- a question or opinion should be phrased as a question or opinion, as applicable, not as a factual, unequivocal statement.

Regarding price - I am not against telling certain people, privately, what I paid; I have in fact already told a number of people who I know and trust. But, for several reasons, I am not posting the price publicly, on a chat site. First, I have no interest in hearing people's opinion of my transaction - I am thrilled and that is all this community on-whole needs to know. Second, this site is open to the public, and I do not need anyone in my private/personal and business life, many of whom don't understand or care about cards, knowing what I spent on a baseball card. The exact price is not a secret, but its not for public consumption either.

I will disclose that I paid a lot for the Wagner, and far above SMR, which I have always thought was wildly inaccurate for all cards. Powell was not "motivated" to sell the card and the price needed to be sufficient to motivate him; indeed, he named his price and I said yes. Currently, there are a number of people actively and aggressively pursuing a T206 Wagner. Thus, I had competition and had to act (and that';s how I roll). I expect the T206 Wagner in Mile High, which was not available when I cut my deal, to trade for a record-high price for a 1. I agree with Conner that it will sell between $750k - $1mm, and I would not be surprised at all if the card went over $1mm. I feel the fellow who bought the PSA 2 for $1.4mm+/- earlier this year probably got a great deal in retrospect. So you have a borderless "A" selling for $540k (before tax) in September 2019 and a very pretty "2" selling earlier this year for $1.4mm+ (with tax) - there are your comps and should guide where Mile High's 1 may trade.

Regarding the Doyle, it was not as expensive as the Wagner, but close. To me, the Doyle is priceless. T206 Wagners are tough, but they can be had if you are willing to pay (I am an example). The Doyle is simply impossible. Very few exist, and they never sell. It is my belief there are 8-9 known, which means there can be no more than 8-9 complete, 524-card T206 sets. To think that T206 is the ultimate baseball card set and the Doyle, not the Wagner, is the primary obstacle to achieving a complete set - (to me) the Doyle is really really special.

I hope that answers some questions, most notably confirming that both parties are happy; indeed, I am over the moon.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

I agree with a previous poster that said he has been revisiting this thread frequently to view the cards. I too have found myself looking at the cards almost daily.

And now Ryan has given us all some insight into the thought process and inner workings of how an ultimate baseball card deal can happen (by the way, hopping on an airplane and completing a baseball card deal at an airport sounds like something out of a movie )

This is truly a fascinating thread.

Ryan thank you for sharing this so we can all enjoy it too.

John

[Powell]

What Ryan says is 100% accurate and I hope and expect he will receive the same joy I received from the Wagner and Doyle. I had no intention of selling when Ryan reached out, but a deal was made at the highest level of professionalism on both sides. Today, the Wall of Cards comes down. Heritage is picking up 522 — #3 on the Registry with many 1 of 1 specimens this morning. It was a 16 year labor of love. However, a new wall of 522 is going right back up with a mid-grade set. I’m still very much in the hobby. I’m more focused on type collecting and building nice collections of Ruth and Cobb, especially Cobb whom I believe got a bum rap from a biographer who betrayed him. My favorite Cobb is the Plow’s Candy E300 which is about as rare as the Doyle. I’ve enjoyed the Board and appreciate all.

Powell

[MVSNYC]

Wait, Ryan, people vouched for you?



I was happy to be the first person Ryan told about this transaction; he knew I'd be up that late at night! He did not have to go into such great detail here about the inner workings of the deal, but he graciously did (and Powell confirmed). Hopefully people will respect their privacy, and not pry on pricing. Very cool (monumental) transaction, going to the perfect home. Congrats, guys.

[Bpm0014]

Powell/Rhotchkiss, thanks for posting all of that. Was a fun read fellas.

[Seven]

Certainly enjoyed reading through this. I think seeing a deal of this magnitude, will the be closest I'll ever get to actually owning a Wagner. Unless they triple my salary, every year for the next handful of years! More and more I'm enthralled by this community.

[oldjudge]

Not being a T206 collector I don't understand why the Doyle NY trades at such a premium to the normal card. There are comparable errors in the Old Judge set(same image, incorrect nameplate) that trade at virtually no premium to the normal card, even though they are quite rare. For me the T206 set would be complete without it since there are only 523 distinct images. This is just a variety. But then again, as I said, I don't collect T206s.

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Not being a T206 collector I don't understand why the Doyle NY trades at such a premium to the normal card. There are comparable errors in the Old Judge set(same image, incorrect nameplate) that trade at virtually no premium to the normal card, even though they are quite rare. For me the T206 set would be complete without it since there are only 523 distinct images. This is just a variety. But then again, as I said, I don't collect T206s.

Hi Jay, would it be similar to an N172 pose/image that has a corresponding Players League nameplate variation that sells for multiples?

p.s. Nice cards Ryan

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by tiger8mush

Hi Jay, would it be similar to an N172 pose/image that has a corresponding Players League nameplate variation that sells for multiples?

p.s. Nice cards Ryan

Hi Rob! I don’t know a PL card that sells for that kind of percentage premium over the regular version. Nothing close. A factor of ten to twenty would be huge. This is a factor of ten thousand.

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Hi Rob! I don’t know a PL card that sells for that kind of percentage premium over the regular version. Nothing close. A factor of ten to twenty would be huge. This is a factor of ten thousand.

good point

[clydepepper]

Hey Ryan - I now that you just got the Wagner card, but if you're open to a trade, I have a 1990 Fleer Jose Uribe error card in my safe. You could throw in some cash to make it an even swap...


.

[PhillyFan1883]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

Well SMR for psa 2 Wagner is $1,350,000 and mile high sold one for that price last October so I wouldn’t say SMR is not a reliable source for any card for that matter.

SMR is not a reliable source for prices. Their prices are a rough estimated round about they update when they aren’t swamped grading altered cards as normal.

Why would they estimate the Wagner PSA 1 at 550k when a copy traded for 609K in 2017? Check auction links below. And more importantly how can they conclude a PSA 1 is the same price of an authentic wagner with three boarders chopped off?. Their prices never make sense. I just worry about collectors that use SMR for their pricing, and I have felt this way for a long time. Not trying to be combative to you specifically, I just have frustrations with SMR and people using it. It may be great for modern but I doubt it.

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

https://catalog.scpauctions.com/1909...NAL_WAGNER__PS

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

Well SMR for psa 2 Wagner is $1,350,000 and mile high sold one for that price last October so I wouldn’t say SMR is not a reliable source for any card for that matter.

When that card sold SMR was 775k, so it wasn’t accurate. That was based on a sale of 776750. The new sale of 1353625 was an increase of 74%. Apply that to the 550 and you get a new price of 958k. After that the Authentic with 3 sides cut off sold for 540k and again they didn’t raise the price. If you use the median between an A and 2 sale it would be 947k for a 1. If you use their valuation of Plank the 2 is 1.41 times the value of a 1. Apply that to the Wagner and you get 957k. Just based on more recent sales a 1 should be worth around 950k, even if they are conservative price it at 900k.

All this doesn’t factor in the recent jump in prices. There are clearly people throwing around big money for cards. We have a Trout selling for over 900k and a LeBron currently in auction at 900k. All it takes is 2 people with the money wanting a Wagner and the price could go even higher. Wagner is the one vintage card that should see a bump from the big money being paid for modern cards. When Gretzky paid 451k the his Wagner, it was expected to go for much less, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if this card goes over a million dollars.

[Leon]

I have to agree the Doyle would be the one to have (for me) if going for the 534. Wagner's can be had with money. That isn't always the case with the Doyle.


.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have to agree the Doyle would be the one to have (for me) if going for the 534. Wagner's can be had with money. That isn't always the case with the Doyle.


.

534??? I'm out.

[Jdoggs]

Originally Posted by rats60

When that card sold SMR was 775k, so it wasn’t accurate. That was based on a sale of 776750. The new sale of 1353625 was an increase of 74%. Apply that to the 550 and you get a new price of 958k. After that the Authentic with 3 sides cut off sold for 540k and again they didn’t raise the price. If you use the median between an A and 2 sale it would be 947k for a 1. If you use their valuation of Plank the 2 is 1.41 times the value of a 1. Apply that to the Wagner and you get 957k. Just based on more recent sales a 1 should be worth around 950k, even if they are conservative price it at 900k.

All this doesn’t factor in the recent jump in prices. There are clearly people throwing around big money for cards. We have a Trout selling for over 900k and a LeBron currently in auction at 900k. All it takes is 2 people with the money wanting a Wagner and the price could go even higher. Wagner is the one vintage card that should see a bump from the big money being paid for modern cards. When Gretzky paid 451k the his Wagner, it was expected to go for much less, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if this card goes over a million dollars.

Ok we shall see if your valuation is correct or not.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

Ok we shall see if your valuation is correct or not.

And we will see how close your valuation of 550k is.

[Jdoggs]

Never did a valuation just stated what SMR says.
SMR may be off too or close to accurate, we shall see.