Skyrocketing Card Values Lately - Theories?

[Dpeck100]

On February 28th there was a thread started on this main page about the stock market decline and I was one of the loan bulls on the card market. I remain as bullish as ever.

People just don't understand how many new buyers have entered the market. The number of watchers on marque items have exploded and bid lists are as long as ever.

There has been a fundamental shift in the market and while cards that have gone up 700% in a few months will naturally correct there are other cards that have been in steady long term up trends and have broken out and keep making new highs.

You are not going to see every card go back to even close to where they were and some will just keep going much higher.

I collect wrestling and prices on legends have just exploded. Just when you think they can't go any higher they do. One of the more common sets is the 1985 Topps WWF set. A Hogan 9 has gone from roughly $50 to $300 with numerous sales in the past few months. Will it hold the peak? Maybe. Maybe not but it isn't going back to $50 under any circumstances.

If you look at just the fundamentals of the market and forget about what you think the cards should sell for, it is the strongest the market has ever been in the ten plus years I have been super active. Nothing goes cheap. Anything that anyone thinks should have some value goes at full price or higher. It is what it is.

Those predicting some massive collapse were the first ones last year to say the end was near. Only to be so wrong it is not even funny. Prices that were supposed to collapse for high grade cards did nothing but explode. How anyone can take their predictions seriously is beyond me.

The bottom line is people like cards and will always like cards and when you have a dramatic shift in the demand curve and there isn't an ability to have a dramatic shift in the supply curve you have exploding prices. Then once prices rise people want the stuff even more and you have the perfect storm.

I have always said that prices are predicated on bragging rights and once something is perceived to have value the interest increases and prices go even higher. This is exactly what is taking place.

Will a Jordan 1986 Fleer have a correction of some kind? Sure but it isn't going to get even close to retracting its recent gains and longer term is only going higher.

The bull market is only gaining steam and prices just keep going for so many different cards. Gary V as I stated has certainly helped the market and has brought in so many more eye balls through Twitter but he isn't the only thing driving it. People see rising prices and love hard assets and this game is far from over.

[BobbyVCP]

StockX people are now in the card game like they do with Sneakers. And basketball is their sport of choice 1980-current

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

StockX people are now in the card game like they do with Sneakers. And basketball is their sport of choice 1980-current

I wasnt aware of that, but if its true (and I dont doubt you), then that could also play a factor now and/or in the future.

StockX is hugely popular at least in my area of North Jersey and New York City. Not sure about other places, but I assume theyre pretty well known all around. Thanks for the information!

[glchen]

I've seen this crazy rise, and agree with what most of the other folks in this thread have said. I think some cards will go down (e.g., Mike Trout RC, how good are his career stats going to be if he loses a season in his prime if most of this season is cancelled?) The rest, however, I think are going to stay at the current level with only modest drops, if at all.


The reason behind it is what most of the others have said. If you are employed, with a decent savings/investment account, where else are you going to put your money? This is a lot of the same reason why it seems the stock market is irrationally high even in a deep recession. The Fed is printing money like crazy, yet interest rates are near zero with little inflation. I think folks are treating baseball cards like gold because there are only "limited" quantities of it. And the fact that the values keep going up feeds more of the buying frenzy. If you've had your collection for a few years, it's most likely worth considerably more than what you paid for those cards. So if you sell some of them to lock in the profit, what do you do with that money? I have the feeling that people are just plowing that money right back into buying more cards.

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

On February 28th there was a thread started on this main page about the stock market decline and I was one of the loan bulls on the card market. I remain as bullish as ever.

People just don't understand how many new buyers have entered the market. The number of watchers on marque items have exploded and bid lists are as long as ever.

There has been a fundamental shift in the market and while cards that have gone up 700% in a few months will naturally correct there are other cards that have been in steady long term up trends and have broken out and keep making new highs.

You are not going to see every card go back to even close to where they were and some will just keep going much higher.

I collect wrestling and prices on legends have just exploded. Just when you think they can't go any higher they do. One of the more common sets is the 1985 Topps WWF set. A Hogan 9 has gone from roughly $50 to $300 with numerous sales in the past few months. Will it hold the peak? Maybe. Maybe not but it isn't going back to $50 under any circumstances.

If you look at just the fundamentals of the market and forget about what you think the cards should sell for, it is the strongest the market has ever been in the ten plus years I have been super active. Nothing goes cheap. Anything that anyone thinks should have some value goes at full price or higher. It is what it is.

Those predicting some massive collapse were the first ones last year to say the end was near. Only to be so wrong it is not even funny. Prices that were supposed to collapse for high grade cards did nothing but explode. How anyone can take their predictions seriously is beyond me.

The bottom line is people like cards and will always like cards and when you have a dramatic shift in the demand curve and there isn't an ability to have a dramatic shift in the supply curve you have exploding prices. Then once prices rise people want the stuff even more and you have the perfect storm.

I have always said that prices are predicated on bragging rights and once something is perceived to have value the interest increases and prices go even higher. This is exactly what is taking place.

Will a Jordan 1986 Fleer have a correction of some kind? Sure but it isn't going to get even close to retracting its recent gains and longer term is only going higher.

The bull market is only gaining steam and prices just keep going for so many different cards. Gary V as I stated has certainly helped the market and has brought in so many more eye balls through Twitter but he isn't the only thing driving it. People see rising prices and love hard assets and this game is far from over.

I think you may have hit it on the head here man! Well stated. Thanks for the thoughts.