Skyrocketing Card Values Lately - Theories?

[sreader3]

White collar men ages 30-70 make the vintage baseball card market. Most are gainfully employed or comfortably retired and many have more cash than places to put it to work right now. You can’t get much ROI in bonds or real estate. Stocks are trading at historically high valuations. So alternative investments like vintage baseball cards are attractive. That seems unlikely to change for a while.

Sure, the vintage baseball card market could crash for a host of reasons. But I heard many of the same arguments in 2008-2009. What happened then is that the market in “commodity” vintage baseball cards (i.e. low- to mid-grade commons) got soft for a couple of years before roaring back. Hall of Famers never dipped much at all. I will add that I have personally sold quite a few mid- to high-grade T206 cards to young professionals in the last couple of years. There is fresh blood in the hobby—and with this fresh blood comes fresh resources.

No doubt current prices are strong. But I think prices are more likely to plateau than drop precipitously. Heck, prices may even continue their relentless ascent. Aside from David Hall’s rare backs, I have not seen a lot of quality T206 offerings come to market recently. Or offerings in other sets for that matter.

[irv]

Originally Posted by sreader3

White collar men ages 30-70 make the vintage baseball card market. Most are gainfully employed or comfortably retired and many have more cash than places to put it to work right now. You can’t get much ROI in bonds or real estate. Stocks are trading at historically high valuations. So alternative investments like vintage baseball cards are attractive. That seems unlikely to change for a while.

Sure, the vintage baseball card market could crash for a host of reasons. But I heard many of the same arguments in 2008-2009. What happened then is that the market in “commodity” vintage baseball cards (i.e. low- to mid-grade commons) got soft for a couple of years before roaring back. Hall of Famers never dipped much at all. I will add that I have personally sold quite a few mid- to high-grade T206 cards to young professionals in the last couple of years. There is fresh blood in the hobby—and with this fresh blood comes fresh resources.

No doubt current prices are strong. But I think prices are more likely to plateau than drop precipitously. Heck, prices may even continue their relentless ascent. Aside from David Hall’s rare backs, I have not seen a lot of quality T206 offerings come to market recently. Or offerings in other sets for that matter.

That is good to hear!

[swarmee]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...ostcount=25597
This was 11 days ago, and the value just keeps dropping.

[seanofjapan]

I think there are three factors at work all of which have to do with wealthy collectors (who are the only ones who can afford to affect the market for high value stuff).

1) Wealthy collectors aren't getting economically hammered by the lockdowns and resulting layoffs like everyone else is;

2) Wealthy collectors are bored and stuck at home. They aren't able to spend money on their other hobbies right now, so they are spending more on cards.

3) Stocks are pretty risky right now so they may also see plowing money into cards as a safe investment.

If any of these three things change, you might see a price correction.

[NiceDocter]

Let me ask you this..... do you really think the cards themselves are going up or is it just the holders they are in? A truly rare card that is sought after will bring a good price almost no matter what the condition where many of the current "hot" cards are only up in a "10" or a "9" holder...... look and see what they are selling for as a 6 or a 7 ( or raw for that matter) and look at those 7s and tell me they are really much different from the ones selling for 100x more! Guess you can tell Im kinda old school eh???

[swarmee]

I think the OP is mainly asking about modern cards (1980+), and a lot of you are answering about top tier vintage cards. The placement of this question on a Pre-war board is probably what's causing the confusion. Vintage cards are going up some this past quarter, but nothing like the bubble market happening in modern basketball and baseball.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by NiceDocter

Let me ask you this..... do you really think the cards themselves are going up or is it just the holders they are in? A truly rare card that is sought after will bring a good price almost no matter what the condition where many of the current "hot" cards are only up in a "10" or a "9" holder...... look and see what they are selling for as a 6 or a 7 ( or raw for that matter) and look at those 7s and tell me they are really much different from the ones selling for 100x more! Guess you can tell Im kinda old school eh???

I could guess you had a brain...unlike the idiots

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I think there are three factors at work all of which have to do with wealthy collectors (who are the only ones who can afford to affect the market for high value stuff).

1) Wealthy collectors aren't getting economically hammered by the lockdowns and resulting layoffs like everyone else is;

2) Wealthy collectors are bored and stuck at home. They aren't able to spend money on their other hobbies right now, so they are spending more on cards.

3) Stocks are pretty risky right now so they may also see plowing money into cards as a safe investment.

If any of these three things change, you might see a price correction.

I agree with this, although the change would have to be very significant to see a meaningful price correction in vintage. More likely the economy returns to something like normalcy and we see a slow march higher.

My comments are limited to vintage baseball cards. That’s what this board is about.

[packs]

I don't know if I would call buying Zion rookies an investment. More like speculation. And there's no fun in speculating unless the risk and rewards are high; so you've got a lot of people pumping right now. But if Zion is Greg Oden and Luka cools off you'll see the same dump.

[maniac_73]

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by swarmee

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...ostcount=25597
This was 11 days ago, and the value just keeps dropping.

Wow great info Swarmee, thanks for the link too. I also liked your previous reply. Thanks for more valuable insight.

The poster seemed pretty optimistic about a rebound on his collection. Do you know if the plummet has continued?