What's more important, Supply or Demand?

[Chicosbailbonds]

I see both sides of the argument, the demand can change fast though. When the economy turns sour, the money tends to turn to the blue chippers.

Personally I see the market getting soft for earlier Topps sets (pre 70). People die off and the families sell the sets off for whatever. People are buying more stars and fewer sets. Good news for pre 70's set collectors, singles are pretty resonable right now.

[steve B]

Demand is the single most important thing that contributes to price.

If it was simply supply, I'd be doing really well. But even the cards that I believe to be unique aren't particularly valuable.

I think there are three things that lead to something being really expensive.

Demand, especially for sportscards it almost has to be demand for a particular player.
It has to be slightly rare, but not so rare that most collectors don't even know it exists. There are loads of cards that are harder to find than the Wagner T206, Same for the 52 Topps Mantle. Most of them never get close to the price of either.
If there's a good story about why it's rare - wagner didn't want to advertise to kids, the 52 topps Highs were dumped in the ocean.... Even if it isn't true, that's what puts it over the top.

[nat]

Price is where supply and demand curves meet. By definition neither can be more important than the other.

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by nat

Price is where supply and demand curves meet. By definition neither can be more important than the other.

Not sure about that-the curves don't measure "amplitude", just trajectory based upon independent inputs.

[Exhibitman]

The latest run-up is just the latest market manipulation. Watch where the prices are in a year.

[GasHouseGang]

I have always thought like you, that the low supply of vintage cards would mean they would be worth more. But I haven't always seen that play out in the market. So, I guess it's been a bit of an education for me about how economics can fool you.

[seanofjapan]

I think supply is only a relevant consideration if demand is greater than it.

Consider this comparison.

There are only 100 copies of card A. But only 20 collectors want card A in their collections. Since demand is much lower than the supply, the card's price remains low because all 20 collectors can easily find a copy of it without needing to competetively bid against each other.

On the other hand, there are 1,000 copies of card B. But 2,000 collectors want card B. Since demand far outstrips supply, the price will go through the roof since the people looking for it will bid it up whenever one comes to auction.

There are 10 times more copies of B than A, but A is worth less than B.

This is an oversimplified example since there are a lot of real life things that prevent these two examples from ever playing out like this (even when there are 100 cards but only 20 collectors after it, if one guy has 95 copies of it leaving only 5 to freely circulate the price can still go way up for example). But it demonstrates why demand is the main driver of price rather than supply. Jordan rookies look more like Card Bs right now while vintage stuff is more like Card As.

[Phil68]

The one thing I know is ANYTIME I want a card--the demand instantly skyrockets. It becomes THE card everybody chases. What typically sells for 300 bucks, I can't touch for under a grand, Lol.
If I go to sell it, 12 of them suddenly appear on eBay and I end up with a really expensive coaster to place my drink on.

In the end, it's probably more demand, but every post I read in this thread makes sense. A lot of good insights.

I guess we should just collect what we like without breaking our budgets. Everyone should definitely stay away from all high-end 1950's cards. Those are pure crap.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Phil68

The one thing I know is ANYTIME I want a card--the demand instantly skyrockets. It becomes THE card everybody chases. What typically sells for 300 bucks, I can't touch for under a grand, Lol.
If I go to sell it, 12 of them suddenly appear on eBay and I end up with a really expensive coaster to place my drink on.

In the end, it's probably more demand, but every post I read in this thread makes sense. A lot of good insights.

I guess we should just collect what we like without breaking our budgets. Everyone should definitely stay away from all high-end 1950's cards. Those are pure crap.

LOL, glad I am not the only one that happens to. Want to see an instant spike, post on a few forums you are looking for a specific card.

I have also noticed that EVERY spike in prices is someone(multiple people) manipulating the market. Never buy the "in" hot card because it is all smoke and mirrors to con people. Demand is very easy to create, supply is WAY harder to manipulate.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The latest run-up is just the latest market manipulation. Watch where the prices are in a year.

Didnt they say the same about the double printed mantle in 1976?