Most overrated baseball superstar ever?

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by rats60

OPS+ is a worthless stat to compare different players from different eras. No one is taking .298/.421/.557/.977 over .325/.398/.579/.977. It also doesn't adjust for park even though it claims to. Proof that Mantle is overrated. He might be top 20-25, but no where close to 7th.

"Might be top 20-25"......?

Mantle's lifetime road OPS was .958. His WAR/season is also top 10 caliber.

I understand people thinking he's a little overrated (though I don't agree), but this is taking it way too far.

[Touch'EmAll]

Yeah, I am little bored ... waiting for the "Last Dance". Here is my ramble, right or not that's ok. Effective vs. Efficient. Ryan ranks #20 on career WAR for pitchers - just behind Steve Carlton at #19, and ahead of such notables as Bob Gibson, Carl Hubbell, Kershaw, Bob Feller and Verlander. Pretty decent if you consider WAR to be effectiveness. Now efficiency, I will admit Ryan not very efficient - he pitched sooo many pitches to get the average out and win. Strikeout pitchers do tend to be less efficient than easier throwing grounder/fly ball/control pitchers - takes more pitches to get the out - more pitches thrown has higher chance of walks, more walks tends to give up more runs.

Back to original topic, most overrated. A lot of modern-ish players listed, but going way back I might say Joe Jackson was overrated. Looking at his stats compared to contemporaries Cobb, Speaker, Hornsby & Heilman a bit later, Jackson overall not quite as good as you might expect.

[ronniehatesjazz]

Harold Baines anyone? I guess he's actually fairly rated by most except HOF voters. I definitely agree with Rose, Ryan, and Jeter.

Rose bated just over .300 for his career and while his average definitely fell off over the end of his career... he stuck around in order to be the hit king and people treat him as though it wasn't as such. Should be a HOFer based on his play but would be a middle of the road HOFer IMO and doesn't belong anywhere near the greats of the game even though most fans put him in that camp.

Ryan, like Rose, just played a long time. Also, like Rose, is a middle of the road HOFer but gets unjustifiably ranked among the best of the best by many fans.

Derek Jeter, in my mind, was seldom the best player on his team and should still be fighting to get in the HOF (albeit would eventually make it). I think his image and the fact he had a long career in the biggest market in the world is why he's ranked where he is.

Harper, also is overrated but not nearly as much as Kris Bryant. Bryant is today's Kevin Mass and thankfully people are starting to realize it. Still he is massively overrated IMO.

On the flip side it would be nice to look at the most underrated players. I would throw Dale Murphy, Lefty O'Doul, Gwynn, and Molitor in that camp to start. IMO, Murphy and O'Doul should be in the hall (even though O'Doul had a very short career). Sisler and Heilmann are also very underrated as well for batting over .400 but most casual fans have no clue who they even are (I don't care what era they played in).

[clydepepper]

The OP labeled his thread most overrated baseball superstar ever, not most overrated HOFer ever.

Harold Baines was a steady quality player, but I would never have called him a superstar.


My three all-time favorite players have been mentioned in this thread, but I do not think any of them are overrated. I would gladly pay to see any of them play at any time of their careers.
.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by ronniehatesjazz

Harold Baines anyone? I guess he's actually fairly rated by most except HOF voters.

Actually, he was fairly rated by Hall of Fame voters, meaning the BBWAA, who never voted him anywhere close to election in 15 years. Another veteran's committee fail.

Ryan, like Rose, just played a long time.

I'm not sure these fall in the same category. Ryan as a 2 WAR season in his second to last season, and a 5.2 WAR season the year before that. Looking at Rose, you have to go back 8 seasons to get to his last 2 WAR season.

While Ryan's season wasn't going well (4.88 ERA through 13 starts), it's worth noting that he retired not because of ineffectiveness, but because of an injury.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by ronniehatesjazz

On the flip side it would be nice to look at the most underrated players.

McCovey.

Still managed 521 homers and a .889 OPS despite missing plenty of games over his final 10 seasons and hitting behind Mays. What career numbers would those two have had if they'd been reversed in the lineup all those years? Many managers back then were pretty vocal about how unusually much they pitched around McCovey

As a hitter, anyway. Never saw him play, but according to the defensive WAR stats, he needed a cartoon-sized novelty glove to play first base.

[999Tony]

I’ll go with bruce sutter for most overrated. For most underrated, Any of the top negro league players other than Paige maybe. Especially the pre-1940s guys.

[howard38]

Rollie Fingers seems overrated to me.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

"Might be top 20-25"......?

Mantle's lifetime road OPS was .958. His WAR/season is also top 10 caliber.

I understand people thinking he's a little overrated (though I don't agree), but this is taking it way too far.

Thanks for proving my point. DiMaggio's lifetime road OPS was 1.016 and that is with losing age 28-30 seasons to World War 2.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by rats60

Thanks for proving my point. DiMaggio's lifetime road OPS was 1.016 and that is with losing age 28-30 seasons to World War 2.

That changes nothing about whether Mantle had a top 10 career. It only shows how much better Dimaggio was than his base numbers (since he was a right-handed hitter in Yankee stadium in that era).

Your other post about Dimaggio is wrong too, because he said that his chart only includes those with at least 2000 games. Dimaggio's career didn't have that many (otherwise he would've been way up there too)

[cardsagain74]

Another thing about the WAR numbers: look at the top 10 of that list, especially if you replace A Rod with Dimaggio. Most every day fans with no concept of the fancy modern statistical metrics would agree that those were pretty much the 10 best position baseball players of the modern era.

The only thing it doesn't account for is how much being a catcher hurts your offensive numbers, especially careerwise. Maybe substitute Bench in for someone.

But overall, the WAR numbers appear to do a great job of representing a player's ability, career accomplishments, and value to his team

[rats60]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Another thing about the WAR numbers: look at the top 10 of that list, especially if you replace A Rod with Dimaggio. Most every day fans with no concept of the fancy modern statistical metrics would agree that those were pretty much the 10 best position baseball players of the modern era.

The only thing it doesn't account for is how much being a catcher hurts your offensive numbers, especially careerwise. Maybe substitute Bench in for someone.

But overall, the WAR numbers appear to do a great job of representing a player's ability, career accomplishments, and value to his team

Well even by WAR, Mantle is 21st. If you remove the one 19th century player, he is 20th. Remove the 3 steroid users 17th. That is not close to being a top 10 player even before addressing the problems with WAR that skew Mantle's numbers higher than they should be. Bill James and Nate Silver have been critical of WAR. I am not drinking the koolaid. In the end WAR is just one (or two) person's opinion of players value. I do not agree it does even an adequate job of representing a players value. It skews some players like Mantle too high. It skews catchers like Johnny Bench way too low. A stat that thinks Phil Niekro and Bert Blyleven were better than Bob Gibson and Pedro Martinez can't be taken seriously.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by rats60

Well even by WAR, Mantle is 21st. If you remove the one 19th century player, he is 20th. Remove the 3 steroid users 17th. That is not close to being a top 10 player even before addressing the problems with WAR that skew Mantle's numbers higher than they should be. Bill James and Nate Silver have been critical of WAR. I am not drinking the koolaid. In the end WAR is just one (or two) person's opinion of players value. I do not agree it does even an adequate job of representing a players value. It skews some players like Mantle too high. It skews catchers like Johnny Bench way too low. A stat that thinks Phil Niekro and Bert Blyleven were better than Bob Gibson and Pedro Martinez can't be taken seriously.

You're just looking at the basic cumulative career WAR totals. Mantle, Pedro, and Gibson had much shorter careers then Niekro and Blyleven. That's why the chart above looked at it per games played. It's the sensible measure of who was "better" for players who lasted long enough for HOF consideration.

And as mentioned above somewhere, Mantle led the league in on-base percentage, walks, and especially OPS a bunch of times. So even if you forget throw out the WAR stats, those Bill James type numbers are well in his favor too.

The only objective argument for Mantle not being a top 10 all-timer is if you punish him a lot for not having a really long career. Which is the same thing you don't want to do to Pedro or Bob Gibson (who are in the same boat).

[G1911]

Overrated superstars, these are the ones that come to my mind. Most of them have some emotional pull for a great many fans that seems to supersede math when rating them.


Cal Ripken, Jr. Deserving Hall of Famer and his game streak is one heck of an accomplishment, but overrated performance on the whole.


Nolan Ryan - Big points for longevity, but he wasn't particularly good at not giving up runs (112 ERA+), which is all that really matters at the end of the day for a pitcher. His extreme walk totals are as impressive as the K's that everyone talks about. 20+ seasons of effective pitching gets you a HOF ticket in my book, but many mediocre pitchers were better at not giving up runs than Nolan was. Probably the most overrated pitcher of all time.


Derek Jeter? - Torn on this. He is now so famous for being overrated that he is underrated by WAR lovers and still massively overrated by casual fans. His defense was not actually as bad as is often stated now.


Roberto Clemente - Value wise, he is pretty much the same as Al Kaline, a great Hall of Famer RF. He does not belong ranked with Mays and Mantle; perhaps the prime example of emotional attachment affecting rationality.


Bryce Harper - His hype train is still trucking and seems like it's not going to ever meet reality at this point. A talented man, whose numbers do not support the press clippings.


Pete Rose - Writing yourself into the lineup for several years after you have stopped being even a league average bat sure helps break records. Too much is made of his hits, and not his batting average and all-time plate appearances and at-bats records. I value longevity more than most, but Rose is still not the top 15-20 player he is usually made out to be by the public.

Carl Yastrzemski - A HOFer, a truly great player from 1967-1970, but the press clippings pretend he played at that level his whole career. He wasn't much special outside of a 4 year peak, just an effective, reliable bat.


Thurman Munson - Catcher stats are the hardest to evaluate I think, but he seems the primary example of the big market bias + tragedy = hagiography equation.


Hal Chase - Anecdotes aside, his numbers are not that impressive and a player rigging games against you almost certainly causes more losses than wins. a replacement player was probably more valuable to his teams winning percentage than Chase was.


There are many others that are overrated by certain fan groups (geographic/ team or ethnic usually) but these are the ones where I can't get the math to ever meet the broadly accepted narratives. As for Mantle, I think he is overrated in that he was probably the 2nd greatest player of his time and not the 1st, but this seems to me a rather pedantic and technical point that misses the forrest for a tree.




For the opposite end of the coin, Underrated:
Minnie Minoso, Frank Robinson, Ralph Kiner come to mind. I think Lefty Grove was severely underrated until Bill James.

Most players that played just a big below a Hall of Fame level, particularly in small or mid markets. Guys like Will Clark, Tori Hunter level players.

Most players who made the Hall of Fame but weren't really Hall of fame level players, and whose claim to fame is now being undeserving. They were almost all actually excellent players, and their accomplishments are no longer remembered, only that Frisch or someone else shoved them through to the Hall.


Most 19th century players. A huge portion of the baseball fan base speaks as if 1899 doesn't count, and 1900 is when the first good players came around.


Players elected to the Hall of Fame primarily for their defense, who are popularly attacked as underserving because they have mediocre hitting stats. HOF voters were well aware that Rabbit Maranville was not a titan at the plate, but the narrative has become that these players were mediocre or even worse.


Players who excelled by the stats of their day, but WAR doesn't like have become underrated as nuance is lost. George Sisler, Pie Traynor, etc.


Players who excelled in stats and areas of the game not known or fully realized in their own time. High on-base low-average guys through the 60's, for example.