Most overrated baseball superstar ever?

[ClementeFanOh]

Bill- the term "overrated" combines things players can and cannot control. It doesn't matter if I "like" Bryce Harper or not, the fact is his former team won the Series the very year after he left- if that's not a "hello" fact, I don't know what is... Although I admit I don't follow him closely, I'd bet old Bryce is a "master of the meaningless homerun" as well ( a la Adam Dunn, who was good for hitting dingers when his team was up by 8 or down by 8). The combo of press+talent+ his ego should translate to Harper setting the world on fire- and a 265 average isn't doing it. He is the very definition of overrated- he's paid way too much and produces too little, while his teams wallow.

[brewing]

I agree on Jeter, Ryan, and Rose. I'll add Banks and Koufax.

Not great but an easy way to ID players that accumulated WAR or counting stats based on playing well past their expiration or useful date.
Take Games played divided by WAR for hitters and IP divided by WAR for pitchers.


Jeter 38.53 Games per WAR
Rose 44.69 Games per WAR
Banks 37.29 Games per WAR
Point of reference Ruth 15.44 Not counting his pitching WAR, therefore lower is clearly better.

2 guys that don't get nearly the same press.
Eddie Mathews 24.85 Games per WAR
Rod Carew 30.37 Games per WAR


Koufax 43.77 IP per WAR
Ryan 64.43 IP per WAR
Point of reference Walter Johnson 38.93.

1 guy that doesn't get enough press.
Pedro Martinez 32.83 IP per WAR

If you don't like WAR, the guys I mentioned have the counting stats.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by brewing

1 guy that doesn't get enough press.
Pedro Martinez 32.83 IP per WAR

In his prime, I've always thought that Pedro was the best pitcher to ever lace 'em up.

Naturally the lack of career bulk really hurts his legacy (with how so many people focus mostly on that side of someone's numbers), but it makes me roll my eyes when those "greatest of all time" lists assume that the stone age pitchers were the best to every play.

You'd think it'd be beyond obvious that the game wasn't nearly the same back then when Young and Johnson started five games per week

[steve B]

Originally Posted by brewing

If you don't like WAR, the guys I mentioned have the counting stats.

Saying that right after talking about accumulated WAR.. it IS a counting stat.

[sycks22]

I know he's not a top tier guy, but Rock Raines making the Hall is a joke. He was good at 1 stat (stealing bags), if that's all you have to do why isn't Kenny Lofton in the hall? He never even had 200 hits in a season even though he had over 700 plate appearances 4x's. He wasn't even a top 20 in MVP voting his last 10 years along with no all-star appearances. 2600 hits to boot. I'll never get it.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by sycks22

I know he's not a top tier guy, but Rock Raines making the Hall is a joke. He was good at 1 stat (stealing bags), if that's all you have to do why isn't Kenny Lofton in the hall? He never even had 200 hits in a season even though he had over 700 plate appearances 4x's. He wasn't even a top 20 in MVP voting his last 10 years along with no all-star appearances. 2600 hits to boot. I'll never get it.

They let in 2160 career hit Larry Walker last year. In his amazing career he got 200 hits once. It has become the Hall of OK let him in.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by bnorth

They let in 2160 career hit Larry Walker last year. In his amazing career he got 200 hits once. It has become the Hall of OK let him in.

The average WAR of a Hall of Fame electee is actually trending up, especially over the last 20 years.

I mean, when was the last time we had a really terrible BBWAA electee? Other than Baines and maybe Morris, even the vets have been solid.

On original topic - I agree on Jackson and Rose.

No Hall of Famer, but Joe Carter and his RBI’s is a classic example.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

Bill- the term "overrated" combines things players can and cannot control. It doesn't matter if I "like" Bryce Harper or not, the fact is his former team won the Series the very year after he left- if that's not a "hello" fact, I don't know what is... Although I admit I don't follow him closely, I'd bet old Bryce is a "master of the meaningless homerun" as well ( a la Adam Dunn, who was good for hitting dingers when his team was up by 8 or down by 8). The combo of press+talent+ his ego should translate to Harper setting the world on fire- and a 265 average isn't doing it. He is the very definition of overrated- he's paid way too much and produces too little, while his teams wallow.

Gardner is the little engine that could. He's a good player. He's steady, never spectacular. He's been an All Star once, and has won one Gold Glove. He also plays a good number of his games at center field, so he's getting a WAR adjustment Harper doesn't. He also played 79 more games over that period, a half season's worth. 334 more plate appearances.

Harper is erratic. That's his biggest problem. He has a great season, then a below average one. Another season that would have put him in contention for the MVP had he not gotten hurt, then a down season.

Harper has a real strong arm, but he's not a good defensive outfielder. Gardner is. He makes up a good deal of WAR from his defense. Offensively, though, there's no comparison. Gardner is 4% above league average as an offensive player 2013-2019. Harper is 39% above league average with a 139 OPS+. 35% better than Gardner. If he keeps that up, stays healthy, and has a few more big seasons, which I think he will, that's Hall of Fame caliber. Look at some of the players with a career OPS+ of around 140:

143-Eddie Mathews, Harmon Killebrew
142-Cap Anson, Mike Piazza
141-Eddie Collins, Chipper Jones, Larry Walker
140-Vlad Guerrero, Duke Snider
139-Reggie Jackson

Harper is at 137 now, 139 since his rookie season. Stathead has an interesting "did you know" on Harper's page: his 1.149 OPS with RISP was the highest by a Phillies player since Mike Schmidt in 1981.

And after a slow start, Harper had a really strong second half in 2019. His numbers after the All Star Break (July 9):

.270 AVG, 67 games, 45 runs, 19 HR, 52 RBI, 40 BB, .376 OBP/.564 SLG/.941 OPS. 147 OPS+

He was OPS'ing 1.841 in 22 spring training PAs, with 3 HR and 11 RBI before baseball was called for the virus. Obviously that's not against constant MLB caliber pitching. But he was crushing the ball. 20 bases (3 doubles, 3 homers) in 18 AB. That Phillies team has some real offensive potential.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

Bill- the term "overrated" combines things players can and cannot control. It doesn't matter if I "like" Bryce Harper or not, the fact is his former team won the Series the very year after he left- if that's not a "hello" fact, I don't know what is... Although I admit I don't follow him closely, I'd bet old Bryce is a "master of the meaningless homerun" as well ( a la Adam Dunn, who was good for hitting dingers when his team was up by 8 or down by 8). The combo of press+talent+ his ego should translate to Harper setting the world on fire- and a 265 average isn't doing it. He is the very definition of overrated- he's paid way too much and produces too little, while his teams wallow.

The fact that his team won the World Series the year after he left is interesting. I certainly wouldn't call that a "hello" fact. There's nothing "factual" about it, besides that it happened. I would put their World Series win more on the fact that their two starting pitching studs were absolutely dominant in the post season, than anything to do with Harper's departure.

Strasburg was 5-0 in 6 games (5 starts), with a 1.98 ERA and 47 Ks in 36 1/3 IP.
Scherzer was 3-0 in 6 games (5 starts), with a 2.40 ERA and 37 Ks in 30 IP.

When your top two starters are a combined 8-0 in the playoffs, you'll be almost impossible to beat.

Oh, and besides those two dominant starting pitchers, the Nationals offense hit 231 home runs, ranked first in the National League in AVG, OBP, third in SLG, and second in OPS. So, they hit a little.

As far as Harper goes.

First...batting average? Did I slip through a wormhole back to the year 1985? The guy gets on base. He walks like crazy, and has ridiculous power potential. Give me a guy that has a .400 OBP and hits the ball out of the park. But just a FYI, he's not a .265 hitter. He's a lifetime .276 hitter, and a .278 hitter the last five years.

And, next time you're going to make an assumption...don't. Actually look it up, because it's not hard to do.

Last year, with runners in scoring position (RISP), Harper hit .357 with 10 HR and 75 RBI...in only 126 at bats. As I stated in my last post, Harper's 1.149 OPS (.459 OBP/.690 SLG) with RISP is the highest by a Phillies player since Mike Schmidt in 1981.

With any men on base, he hit .331 with 20 HR, 99 RBI in 254 AB. He slashed .422 OBP/.665 SLG/1.087 OPS.

So, 20 of his 35 home runs came with men on base. Those are all elite numbers.

He produces too little? What part of a 1.149 OPS with men in scoring position leads you to believe that? Harper was 8th in the NL with 114 RBI-a career high, a year after he recorded 100 RBI for the first time.

Oh, and by the way, the last five years? Harper's 144 OPS+ is the fifth best in baseball (minimum 2,000 AB)

1. Mike Trout 183
2. J.D. Martinez 152
3. Nelson Cruz 151
4. Joey Votto 146
5. Bryce Harper 144 (tied with Freddie Freeman)

If I eliminate the extremes of his MVP 2015 season, and his down 2016, his 136 OPS+ is still tenth in baseball.

He's an elite hitter, any way you care to cut it. The guy walks like crazy.

The last five seasons, most walks in baseball:

1. Joey Votto 569
2. Mike Trout 534
3. Bryce Harper 529

The last five seasons, highest SLG In baseball (min. 2,000 AB):

1. Mike Trout .605
2. J.D. Martinez .585
3. Nolan Arenado .575
9. Bryce Harper .535

And three of the guys ahead of him, Freddie Freeman and Trevor Story (.537) and Charlie Blackmon (.536) are within 2 points. Oh, and Blackmon and Story both play at Coors Field. As does Nolan Arenado. When you consider their SLG splits, Harper's a top 5-6 slugger in baseball the last five seasons.

Bryce Harper is a top 5 offensive player in baseball the last half decade. The last three seasons, he's easily top ten. Is he paid too much? Aren't they all?

So, no, he doesn't produce too little. That's a patently false statement. And "his teams wallow"? You know there are 40 players on a playoff roster, right? Unlike other sports, a hitter only comes to the plate again after 8 others have taken their cuts. Harper can't take 50 shots a game like Kobe Bryant or James Harden. He can't throw the ball 50 times like Drew Brees, or take slap shots from all over the ice like Alex Ovechkin. That's part of the beauty of baseball. I'm not sure how much you think one position player can impact a team's overall win loss.

Let's look at his recent teams.

2019 Phillies 81-81. The pitching staff was 11th of 15 in NL ERA. Not sure what Harper could have done there.
2018 Nats 82-80. They clearly underachieved. Not all on Harper. Pythagorean W-L was 92-70. 771 runs scored, 682 runs allowed.
2017 Nats 97-65 Lost the NLDS 3-2 to the Cubs
2016 Nats 95-67 Lost the NLDS 3-2 to the Dodgers

I would hardly call his teams "wallowers". Last year's Phillies team was pretty much rebuilt. Reamulto, Harper, Segura and McCutchen were all brought in. Some teams need time to adjust. The '18 Nats underperformed. The 2016 and 2017 were among the best teams in baseball.

Again, factually inaccurate.

Any other generalizations and assumptions you want disproven?

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

-

- "Any other generalizations and assumptions you want disproven?"

- "You're so obtuse, it's comical."

Unsolicited remarks that you first made to others in this thread. But when one of them responds and treats you the same way, you tell them not to be condescending.

You may have a high level of baseball stat expertise, but your hypocrisy just surpassed it.

[howard38]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Unsolicited remarks that you first made to others in this thread. But when one of them responds and treats you the same way, you tell them not to be condescending.

You may have a high level of baseball stat expertise, but your hypocrisy just surpassed it.

Lol...that was my first thought.