Production Estimates / Print Run Archive

[savedfrommyspokes]

As far as the Topps Tiffany cards, here is an article regarding the print runs...

https://www.cardboardconnection.com/...baseball-cards

For the 1984s, an old article in a 1984 SCD mentioned there were only 5,000 sets....not likely true as I have one set #d "06393". The 1991s have been rumored to have a print run between 3,000 and 5,000.....the highest #d set I have is "3176". Since the 84s have a 5 digit serial number I would go with the 10,000 print run and with the 91s having a 4 digit serial number, a print run of 5k would be a reasonable assumption.


Here is another thread that discusses some 1950s Topps print runs:
https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=268386

[JUrsaner]

Amazing stuff! For right now I'm just going to keep editing the initial post as information comes

Re: savedfrommyspokes on the Tiffany sets - I'd always heard it as

1984 - 10k
1985 - cut production to 5k
1986 - 5k
1987 - 25k-30k
1988 - 25k-30k
1989 - 25k (15k Traded?)
1990 - ?
1991 - 5k?

Any idea on the "send-away" All-Star Glossy sets? 1983-1990?

[insidethewrapper]

Here's a few more :
1996 Leaf Limited ( 45,000 foil boxes)
1993 Score Select Rookie & Traded Foil Boxes (1950 #'d cases/24 boxes ea) = 46,800 Foil Boxes
1994 Score Select Series One Foil Boxes( 4950 /24 box cases ) = 118,800 Foil Boxes.
1994 Score Select Series Two Foil Boxes ( 4950 /24 box cases ) = 118,800 Foil Boxes.

[JUrsaner]

Hoping to also move more into the great unknown with estimates of the base years everyone knows/loves.

So going to start adding some loose estimates starting from 1975 Topps. Read somewhere that Sy Berger had remarked in a book/interview (source?) that Topps printed 500m cards in 1975. Might have been figurative... but also seems possible. Would be ~750k/card. Need to assume a certain % was "consumed" by the hobby - used, creased, lost, thrown away... to get to current stockpile

Any thoughts/input on starting to estimate the vintage/junk wax base sets for Topps - much appreciated.
Just threw in 750k/card for modern vintage and 1m/card for junk wax for right now

I'd also love to try to back into production #s for some of the "common" insert sets from the 90s

[West]

I would like to address the years 1989 Upper Deck base and 1990 Topps base. I have done some research into the printing of 1990 Topps. Also, Pete Williams' "Card Sharks" gave readers an unprecedented look behind the scenes of the production of 1989 Upper Deck. According to the book, the initial release of 1989 Upper Deck was for around 125,000 cases. That's 1.4 billion cards. That's around 2 million of each card in the 700 card first series. Now we know they couldn't keep up with demand and continued printing. For argument's sake, let's say they doubled the initial print run and made 4 million of each card (2.8 billion total cards printed). One source inside the industry claimed that 81 billion trading cards were printed by the late '80s and early 90's.

Maybe someone else can estimate the market share of each sport in 1990. But say Topps printed 1/4 of the 81 billion trading cards printed. That's 20 billion trading cards in 1990. Let's then say that the breakdown was 40% baseball cards, 25% football and 25% hockey and 10% non-sports. That's 8 billion baseball cards. Say Topps base was 80% of that. 6.6 billion cards of a 792 card set would be a print run of 8.3 million of each card. Personally I feel that is a conservative estimate and wouldn't be surprised if the print run of each base card of 1990 Topps baseball was 15 million.

Looking at the current unopened market, it does appear to me that 1990 Topps is at least 2-3 times more plentiful than 1989 Upper Deck.

[JUrsaner]

@West - That is what I'm talking about! Love that post - gives a lot to think about for estimates

Was that claim of 80b+ trading cards supposedly an annual figure?

[nat]

Why not call the companies? They might just tell you.

[West]

Originally Posted by JUrsaner

@West - That is what I'm talking about! Love that post - gives a lot to think about for estimates

Was that claim of 80b+ trading cards supposedly an annual figure?

It was an annual figure. I've seen it reported in several places, here is one link:

https://slate.com/culture/2010/03/th...rd-bubble.html

"Unfortunately for investors, each one of those cards was being printed in astronomical numbers. The card companies were shrewd enough never to disclose how many cards they were actually producing, but even conservative estimates put the number well into the billions. One trade magazine estimated the tally at 81 billion trading cards per year in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, or more than 300 cards for every American annually. "

I'm not sure what trade magazine the original estimate came from. Could we posit that Topps produced as much as 40% of that 81 billion? I know there was a ton of Fleer, Donruss and Score out there, but Topps had been the industry leader for decades and Upper Deck was just getting on its feet. Some kind of market share data (or an annual report, as Steve B mentioned) from that era would get a better estimate.

Since Topps became publicly traded I was able to download annual reports from as far back as 1995. But the junk wax era reports are not available as Topps was privately held at that time and employees and subcontractors all had strict non-disclosure stipulations in their contracts.

[Estil17]

Originally Posted by West

I would like to address the years 1989 Upper Deck base and 1990 Topps base. I have done some research into the printing of 1990 Topps. Also, Pete Williams' "Card Sharks" gave readers an unprecedented look behind the scenes of the production of 1989 Upper Deck. According to the book, the initial release of 1989 Upper Deck was for around 125,000 cases. That's 1.4 billion cards. That's around 2 million of each card in the 700 card first series. Now we know they couldn't keep up with demand and continued printing. For argument's sake, let's say they doubled the initial print run and made 4 million of each card (2.8 billion total cards printed). One source inside the industry claimed that 81 billion trading cards were printed by the late '80s and early 90's.

I once had a 1989 Baseball Cards magazine issue years ago that had a two page Upper Deck ad (I've never seen it since anywhere on the Internet) showing a cartoon of a card store with three kids enjoying their 1989 Upper Deck cards while two others are sitting on the curb sad because they missed out. The ad said there'd only be enough cards made for three out of five baseball card collectors (however many they thought there were) to have a set. And promised that future years more would be produced. And in the Beckett/Sport Americana annual price guide it said the original idea was to have one million of each card but apparently they decided to double that number so soon?

I'd love to read that book if it ever shows up on the Internet Archive...

[steve B]

Originally Posted by JUrsaner

I'd also love to try to back into production #s for some of the "common" insert sets from the 90s

If a set has any numbered inserts, and stated odds, you can figure out approximate numbers for everything else.

It does get complicated once the companies started doing different odds for different products and different inserts for different packaging/retail exclusives, but a rough figure is possible.

Other years it may be possible to get a very approximate figure by figuring out what each card wholesaled for and if the annual report includes a breakdown of how much in sales was Baseball cards. But only a very rough estimate, since the per card price was very different between wax/cellos/racks/vending.

[JUrsaner]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

As far as the Topps Tiffany cards, here is an article regarding the print runs...

https://www.cardboardconnection.com/...baseball-cards

For the 1984s, an old article in a 1984 SCD mentioned there were only 5,000 sets....not likely true as I have one set #d "06393". The 1991s have been rumored to have a print run between 3,000 and 5,000.....the highest #d set I have is "3176". Since the 84s have a 5 digit serial number I would go with the 10,000 print run and with the 91s having a 4 digit serial number, a print run of 5k would be a reasonable assumption.


Here is another thread that discusses some 1950s Topps print runs:
https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=268386

Going to dig into the production numbers of the Topps vintage sets later this week

-- https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=268386 -- 1950s
-- https://boblemke.blogspot.com/2013/0...vered.html?m=1
-- https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/fi...ges744-855.pdf -- FTC Complaint 1965
-- https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=266800 -- 1960s
-- https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-baseball-card