Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by japhi

Well this thread is about the overall card market and price predictions, not PWCC. PWCC having lots of listings is not a data point. I would expect their listing to go UP in times like this. Similar to RE, lot of listings represents a buyers market.

And who cares if there is lots of action. There is lots of action in equity markets right now, volumes are historic. Would you agree then that equity markets are doing well?

I enjoy you as a poster here and on CU - optimism and supporting the hobby is a good thing. But we are going through a once in a lifetime event. PWCC’s own index ffs shows that broadly cards have been flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - 4 percent UE, RE markets exploding and free money.

As a fellow guy in finance, what is your outlook for the economy and how does that dovetail with your outlook on cards? Who cares about PWCC, how do you feel cards will perform in 12-18% UE and negative 20% GDP? You can’t be one of the “this will pass soon” guys?

There was a comment earlier about people still watching PWCC listings. The answer is yes I still do. I don't see how someone can't.

EBAY is a real time market place. The same data that is available to stock market participants is available to those buying cards. These same people can turn on the news and see the horror show. Why are they still bidding on cards? I don't know. I know I have been trolling EBAY looking for stuff to buy at the same pace during this entire market meltdown. If something I want shows up I am buying it. 100% of my card buys have come from monthly cash flow and I assume there are plenty of others who have a similar situation.

I put more money into cards in 2010 then any other year and that was a horrible time for the economy and highly uncertain for me in finance. In my view cash flow is king and so there is no doubt that there will be some cash flow impact in the coming months for loads of people. That said my cash flow can decline and I can still afford to buy cards. Some won't be able to. How much they matter to the card prices is debatable. I don't know the answer.

The economy was in great shape heading into this. I think it all comes down to how long it is halted. If it is two months for most of it the stimulus package and debt extension efforts will help. If it is four months or more we will be in trouble for a while. The decline in interest rates and energy is huge stimulus and obviously the lack of work is not.

There was a hedge fund manager that was on CNBC this week twice who is a billionaire and in his late 40's and started at 25. He thinks the market hits new highs by the end of the year. Is it probable? No. Is it possible? Yes. He is looking at the same situation we are.

I personally think this is a very hard one to predict because under no circumstances did I think in 2009 it would be a v shaped recovery. I remember arguing with an old timer in the office who was a portfolio manager and was insistent we were in trouble for a long time. I couldn't have been more wrong as the market came screaming back and while I had been very bearish on the way down I didn't get it right on the way back up. With a massive amount of fiscal stimulus it is very possible that this will assist in keeping us from going as deep as one might think and certainly could assist in us coming back from this.

My situation is different than most because I own such a large concentration of the same cards and a large percentage of the population totals. A few weeks ago an Andre The Giant 1982 PSA 8 sold for $1,358. There are 18 in the pop report and I have 6 of them. I know I could never sell them all at the same time and not impact prices. A PSA 7 sold for $620. I have 7 of those. The same holds true there. That said the totals of these cards are low enough where they don't come for sale frequently and so if someone wants one they have to go after it. Do some of the market participants get knocked out of the market for this card? Possibly but it is not 100%.

I truly believe that a ton of money has flowed into cards because they are a hard asset. You still own it regardless of the value. Someone who bought Enron watched their piece of paper go to zero. An Andre will always be worth something. Perhaps more. Perhaps less but never zero.

There is a trimmed raw Kobe Bryant card with a current bid of $145,600 right now on Ebay. Why? Because there are people out there that want this stuff and that isn't going to change. The buying power might change and that is the the question we can't answer. If it lasts a few months it is a non event. If it lasts years than yes the economy will catch up to cards.

It remains to be seen how this plays out and I remain optimistic we will get through this. I hope I am right. It has never paid to bet against the American economy for long.

[MULLINS5]

Another bad example - there are so few of the Kobe Green Metal cards. Those cards are extremely condition sensitive and could actually benefit a little trim around the edges without negatively impacting value.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by MULLINS5

Another bad example - there are so few of the Kobe Green Metal cards. Those cards are extremely condition sensitive and could actually benefit a little trim around the edges without negatively impacting value.

The point is there is still money out there that can support a card selling for nearly 150k from 1997. Most will pay more for a slabbed card and so the fact that it is raw doesn't help its cause. Yes there are 10 so you take what you can get but that doesn't mean those searching wouldn't pay more for a higher numerical grade.

Not everyone is going to be in dire straits. If you are a waiter perhaps but they don't drive the card market.

Here we have a Johnson/Bird rookie.

Sold for $5,822 in January

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1980-Topps-...8AAOSwyMVeGiRK

A PWCC copy with a premium rating $8,100 in February

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1980-Topps-...UAAOSwFZNeQEyg

A standard copy like the first I posted sells for $7,565 tonight

https://www.ebay.com/itm/14355376147...torefresh=true


Why not less than the one in January when the market was at all time highs? Why not drastically less?

[Republicaninmass]

"Alleged" Doctored altered cards run up by fake buyers groups and shill bids. Wait until next month when the same cards are listed



If you value your portfolio by PWCC sales prices, you will be in for a rude awakening come sale time. Yes, I refuse to even add any of their cards to my watch list to "increase eyeballs". I'll view real time sales from everyone else thank you.

They are the Parateum of cards with False earnings in my book.

[MULLINS5]

The first card has a noticeable print defect on the bottom right corner which could be why it sold for less than the other two.

I follow 79/80 OPC Hockey. There are a TON of Gretzkys being unloaded at the moment. That card, many years ago, used to sell for about $100 per PSA grade up to PSA 7. Now it's about three times that and doesn't look like it's going down. The big Gretzky card (PSA 9) grade is not trustworthy IMO because there is a larger opportunity to artificially inflate the price and create a facade for value - these type of cards shouldn't be considered when studying the card market as a whole.

[Dpeck100]

When people refer to the stock market they discuss the most important companies in the world and base their judgment on how they are performing.

These actively traded cards are a better example because they are liquid. In the cards I follow a Randy Orton PSA 10 rookie sold for $175 today. A very strong price. Very doubtful that card sells for that in auction. It’s a lot easier to sell an Andre than that card and if people end up really needing money the good stuff gets sold because it’s the easiest to move.

[seanofjapan]

Focusing on PWCC only tells you about current demand, it doesn't tell you anything about where demand or supply are going to be at in a couple months when the economic effects of this really start to be felt.

The writing on the wall is clear: lots of people are going to be needing money in the next few months just to get by. Either they'll have lost a job, had their hours cut, or seen their retirement savings decimated by the stock market crash. Government action might cushion the fallout a bit but noway is it going to solve any of it. So anyone with a collection who falls into one of those categories is likely to be making some tough choices in the coming weeks about what they need to get rid of in order to get some money.

And the problem is that all of these people will be making that decision at about the same time, which means you'll likely see a huge spike in stuff for sale this summer. They haven't flooded the market yet because this crisis has been sprung upon us so suddenly and most people who have decent collections probably have some savings to tide them over a bit. But once they reach that point, supply is going to go through the roof at exactly the same time demand craters because the people who are usually buyers have become sellers.

Its the perfect recipe for the market to tank completely. If PWCC prices are still high today, then the smart person would be selling everything they have like mad right now to take advantage of that because it won't last.

[oldjudge]

Here I was worrying about the stock market and the Coronavirus and I completely missed the fact that the Randy Orton PSA10s were doing well. That changes everything.