Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[mintacular]

Make sure your 27-year old friend watches this video before he buys in:

https://youtu.be/UM9WT-namdw

[Johnny630]

The tell tale factor will be the upcoming presidential election. Sure the virus has caused fear and uncertainty but it’s also one parties leading nominee whom has a lot of Wall Street Scared Sh+tless

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

The tell tale factor will be the upcoming presidential election. Sure the virus has caused fear and uncertainty but it’s also one parties leading nominee whom has a lot of Wall Street Scared Sh+tless

What is fascinating is both sides are scared to death.

I was at a conference seven years ago and Chis Mathewson was the guest speaker. He made fun of all of us because he assumed as financial people we were all Republicans. He knows it is 90% or more so not a stretch. That said guys like him are petrified. Anyone with a first grade math education realizes no one wins.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Make sure your 27-year old friend watches this video before he buys in:

https://youtu.be/UM9WT-namdw

He doesn't want into cards. Options on stocks.

Point was the pursuit of profits draws people in.

Why were there buyers of TSLA at over $900? Because it was up. Same thing drives a lot of the card market.

I am not a flipper. No reason to have nearly 30 Andre 82's so I don't fit the profile.

Just realize it exists.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

He doesn't want into cards. Options on stocks.

Point was the pursuit of profits draws people in.

Why were there buyers of TSLA at over $900? Because it was up. Same thing drives a lot of the card market.

I am not a flipper. No reason to have nearly 30 Andre 82's so I don't fit the profile.
Just realize it exists.

Exactly Bingo Right Emotion Driven Momentum is extremely strong look at last week in the markets.

Doesn’t have to be REAL

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Make sure your 27-year old friend watches this video before he buys in:

https://youtu.be/UM9WT-namdw

There easily could be a bubble. That said it is hard to say. In 1985 Dwight Gooden was the card to have. There were over a million printed and it reached a trad able value of over $15. That is a market cap of over 15 million. With drastically less printed today these same cards will sell at a massive premium to this and probably have a similar market cap. Hard to know what happens. Hard to argue though with those who successfully forecasted stardom and put their money behind the cards.

[mintacular]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

There easily could be a bubble. That said it is hard to say. In 1985 Dwight Gooden was the card to have. There were over a million printed and it reached a trad able value of over $15. That is a market cap of over 15 million. With drastically less printed today these same cards will sell at a massive premium to this and probably have a similar market cap. Hard to know what happens. Hard to argue though with those who successfully forecasted stardom and put their money behind the cards.

I'm not sure this is true, the video I posted proves as much

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by mintacular

I'm not sure this is true, the video I posted proves as much

Patrick. Most of these cards come out of packs in high grade. 10k plus might be 40% to 50% of the total supply. There are not a million plus of these cards printed.

[mintacular]

Ok, so point is there are going to be a lot more 10s of modern cards than 10s of 80s Darryl Stawberry or whomever--so how do higher supply 10s of modern cards hold the same value to 80s 10's that are much harder to hit? Also, the bottom 95% of total supply doesn't matter on cards like these ultimately it's only the top 5% and there will be drastically more 10s on modern than 80s to vintage

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Ok, so point is there are going to be a lot more 10s of modern cards than 10s of 80s Darryl Stawberry or whomever--

So why would you conclude the $15 Strawberry PSA 10 (in much lower supply) is equivalent to the PSA 10 modern star which would be in much greater supply?

I am not.

In 1985 we didn't get cards graded. Kids just saw the value in Beckett and said this is what it is worth. Dealers in many cases too.

If there are 1 million printed and the card books for $15 it has a $15 million dollar market cap.

If today there are 30,000 printed and it books for $500 it has a $15 million dollar market cap. The lower supply simply allows for the cards to trade for more and of course we have inflation.

Long term no one knows what they are worth. That said a 1993 SP Jeter that has over 15,000 copies graded by PSA alone was worth $6,500 in a PSA 10 in 2009 when I got really active buying cards. There were countless people who said at $15,000 it was the most overvalued card in the hobby. At $24,000 it was insane. No way the $30,000 sale was real. You can't be serious it sold for $37,000. And on and on. Now close to $200,000. This stuff is hard to predict but one thing is true once a horse leaves the barn it is hard to get it back in.

I was made fun of for saying a Hogan PSA 9 was a great buy for $75. Today it is at least $5,000. I didn't know that then and believed it would go up a lot but was just lucky not to sell and keep buying various copies on the way up.

[brianp-beme]

I know 2008 through 2011 or so was a time to pick up vintage cards cheap. Good possibility 2020 through ? will be the same way.

Brian

[mintacular]

You make some valid points but I'm not sure where the 30,000 vs. 1 million assumption is coming from?