Class action suit filed against PSA, PWCC and Probstein

[irv]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

The lasting effect is prices will drop, and when a recession finally hits the value of some cards will come way down.

I don't have the time, or frankly energy, to spend hours of my life sleuthing around. I'll buy cool stuff that is rare and enjoy. Days of chasing nice grade cards is winding down. Just too much risk of getting bit in the arse.

Would you plow real money into a stock if there was real questions about the legitimacy of their financial disclosures? I sure wouldn't.

That's likely the best analogy I've heard yet!

[JunkyJoe]

Here's my best GUESS as to the total dollar amount of this fraud ...

In regards to PSA specifically, they have graded about 30 million cards so far (give or take a couple million). I'm guessing that about 25% of all PSA grading submissions are made by "favored" and/or high-volume dealers. Said dealers surely must be very much aware of how PSA's alleged "professional system" works, right?

So far, the math is: 30,000,000 X 0.25 = 7,500,000 cards.

So, just assuming that 1 out of every 5 cards submitted by those clowns is either A) altered but received a number grade ... or ... B) over-graded by means of favoritism and/or over-valuation by the submitter ...

So then: 7,500,000 X 0.20 = 1.5 million tainted PSA-slabbed cards

From what we've seen, so far, with all the outed cards from the past few months, I'll just guess each tainted card has an average "fake value gain" of around $200. I arrive at this average considering all the outed cards with value gains in the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands of dollars, as well as the ones that gained only $50 or less.

Also, I would think the average would remain a constant regardless of what % of tainted cards have been outed so far, i.e. "this card here gained $30 in 'fake value' ... that card there gained $400 in 'fake value' ... and that one over there gained $5,000 in 'fake value' ... " .. ... and so on.

So that brings us to the next little bit of math:

1,500,000 X $200 = $300,000,000 in PSA-related fraud ... "alleged" of course

Also, consider that my "$200-average-fake-value-gained-per-card" guess might be conservative. What if that actual average fake value gain per card is closer to $300 ... $400 ... ?? Furthermore, my "25%-of-PSA-grading-submissions" guess may be conservative. What if 30% ... 35% ... __% of PSA graded cards were submitted by those favored/high-volume dealers???

Then, if we add in the suspected fraud involving SGC slabbed cards, and to a lesser extent (IMO) the ones involving BGS/BVG ... there could be what, 1/3 added to the $ fraud total?

So how about $400,000,000, as a conservative estimate?

But wait, what about all the raw cards that have been inflated by shill bidding involving various shady individuals? How much does that add to the total, potentially?

So maybe that "billion dollar" number isn't so ridiculous after all, hmm?

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by JunkyJoe

Here's my best GUESS as to the total dollar amount of this fraud ...

In regards to PSA specifically, they have graded about 30 million cards so far (give or take a couple million). I'm guessing that about 25% of all PSA grading submissions are made by "favored" and/or high-volume dealers. Said dealers surely must be very much aware of how PSA's alleged "professional system" works, right?

So far, the math is: 30,000,000 X 0.25 = 7,500,000 cards.

So, just assuming that 1 out of every 5 cards submitted by those clowns is either A) altered but received a number grade ... or ... B) over-graded by means of favoritism and/or over-valuation by the submitter ...

So then: 7,500,000 X 0.20 = 1.5 million tainted PSA-slabbed cards

From what we've seen, so far, with all the outed cards from the past few months, I'll just guess each tainted card has an average "fake value gain" of around $200. I arrive at this average considering all the outed cards with value gains in the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands of dollars, as well as the ones that gained only $50 or less.

Also, I would think the average would remain a constant regardless of what % of tainted cards have been outed so far, i.e. "this card here gained $30 in 'fake value' ... that card there gained $400 in 'fake value' ... and that one over there gained $5,000 in 'fake value' ... " .. ... and so on.

So that brings us to the next little bit of math:

1,500,000 X $200 = $300,000,000 in PSA-related fraud ... "alleged" of course

Also, consider that my "$200-average-fake-value-gained-per-card" guess might be conservative. What if that actual average fake value gain per card is closer to $300 ... $400 ... ?? Furthermore, my "25%-of-PSA-grading-submissions" guess may be conservative. What if 30% ... 35% ... __% of PSA graded cards were submitted by those favored/high-volume dealers???

Then, if we add in the suspected fraud involving SGC slabbed cards, and to a lesser extent (IMO) the ones involving BGS/BVG ... there could be what, 1/3 added to the $ fraud total?

So how about $400,000,000, as a conservative estimate?

But wait, what about all the raw cards that have been inflated by shill bidding involving various shady individuals? How much does that add to the total, potentially?

So maybe that "billion dollar" number isn't so ridiculous after all, hmm?

Thanks for showing your work....That was always my problem in math class.

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by JunkyJoe

Here's my best GUESS as to the total dollar amount of this fraud ...

In regards to PSA specifically, they have graded about 30 million cards so far (give or take a couple million). I'm guessing that about 25% of all PSA grading submissions are made by "favored" and/or high-volume dealers. Said dealers surely must be very much aware of how PSA's alleged "professional system" works, right?

So far, the math is: 30,000,000 X 0.25 = 7,500,000 cards.

So, just assuming that 1 out of every 5 cards submitted by those clowns is either A) altered but received a number grade ... or ... B) over-graded by means of favoritism and/or over-valuation by the submitter ...

So then: 7,500,000 X 0.20 = 1.5 million tainted PSA-slabbed cards

From what we've seen, so far, with all the outed cards from the past few months, I'll just guess each tainted card has an average "fake value gain" of around $200. I arrive at this average considering all the outed cards with value gains in the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands of dollars, as well as the ones that gained only $50 or less.

Also, I would think the average would remain a constant regardless of what % of tainted cards have been outed so far, i.e. "this card here gained $30 in 'fake value' ... that card there gained $400 in 'fake value' ... and that one over there gained $5,000 in 'fake value' ... " .. ... and so on.

So that brings us to the next little bit of math:

1,500,000 X $200 = $300,000,000 in PSA-related fraud ... "alleged" of course

Also, consider that my "$200-average-fake-value-gained-per-card" guess might be conservative. What if that actual average fake value gain per card is closer to $300 ... $400 ... ?? Furthermore, my "25%-of-PSA-grading-submissions" guess may be conservative. What if 30% ... 35% ... __% of PSA graded cards were submitted by those favored/high-volume dealers???

Then, if we add in the suspected fraud involving SGC slabbed cards, and to a lesser extent (IMO) the ones involving BGS/BVG ... there could be what, 1/3 added to the $ fraud total?

So how about $400,000,000, as a conservative estimate?

But wait, what about all the raw cards that have been inflated by shill bidding involving various shady individuals? How much does that add to the total, potentially?

So maybe that "billion dollar" number isn't so ridiculous after all, hmm?

The Billion Dollar fraud should be calculated on the final sales price, not the value gained by the fraudsters. The true value of the Altered cards is around 20% of the fraudulent sales price. Give or take. So do the same calculation of final sales price times 80%.

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by MULLINS5

Nowadays when someone opens a pack, and there's a dinged card, they can send it back and have the company make them a new one.

That's not a pack pulled card anymore. It's manufactured to be in mint condition.

I do believe future generations of collectors will be OK with trimming, cleaning, color touch, etc. At the rate we're at, they really have no other choice.

This is false. The manufacturer will send you a card that is deemed of equal value, but they don't reprint the card.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

This is false. The manufacturer will send you a card that is deemed of equal value, but they don't reprint the card.

Eh, you can call it more of a half truth. It is their general policy that if they do replace a damaged card they replace it with something in their stock they consider equal book value, but Topps has before on rare occasions reprinted or recreated damaged cards if the card is high profile enough or if the comp value is high enough to require more than a handful of cards to reach. This is my understanding at least.

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

Eh, you can call it more of a half truth. It is their general policy that if they do replace a damaged card they replace it with something in their stock they consider equal book value, but Topps has before on rare occasions reprinted or recreated damaged cards if the card is high profile enough or if the comp value is high enough to require more than a handful of cards to reach. This is my understanding at least.

Of the billions of cards Topps & Panini have produced over the years a small handful have been remade, but only under very extreme circumstances.

I just didn't want people thinking you could send any pack-pulled, damaged card to these companies and they will print you a new one. That just doesn't happen.

[MULLINS5]

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

have been remade.

Correct.