Heritage Auction Catalog

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I would be very surprised to find any auction at 25% fresh to the hobby material. How much could really be left out there in general? 5% would sound way too high to me. I'd put the over/under at 1 to 1.5%

25% could well be high, but I think you're way low. Just 20 new items in an auction of 2,000? I don't think so. Now, we might be on different pages on the definition of "new to the hobby," since I'm including collections that have been built up over the years going way back now coming out. Most of a collection like that I would include in my definition of "new." And I think it will be some time before the hobby consists almost exclusively of more or less real-time churn and flipping, there's too much stuff out there that's been sitting in collections for years, not to mention players' estates and other things truly new to the hobby marketplace. I'd be interested to hear from any auction guys on this, they would know.

[pokerplyr80]

Fresh to the hobby for me means sitting around basically undiscovered. Perhaps inherited and sitting in a shoe box or albums. Definitely not graded. I think 25% of listings advertised as fresh to the hobby actually being fresh to the hobby would be a good estimate. If there was a way to prove it I would take any bets at under 5% in just about any major auction.

[epike3]

... just wondering ...