Tom Brady or Joe Namath rookie cards what is the better bet longrun?

[mr2686]

Originally Posted by obiwin

Besides some NY kids who may have had fathers who idolized Namath, I don't get the sense any Millennial or younger know or care who he is nor will care about any of the stories, etc. What was considered flamboyant and outrageous back then probably sounds tame and lame compared to the trouble modern athletes get into today and the ease in which its documented in social media.

I wonder if Sammy Baugh's lack of price movement in the past decade is a good analogy indicator of how Namath's cards will perform once all the Boomers who saw him play are no longer around driving demand and prices up.

For that matter, will Brady still be relevant in 50 years? For all we know, modern technology and medicine will allow players to play in to their 60's, which would allow players to shatter even Brady's records.
Bottom line, collect what you love, and if you make money down the line even better.

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

Originally Posted by mr2686

For that matter, will Brady still be relevant in 50 years? For all we know, modern technology and medicine will allow players to play in to their 60's, which would allow players to shatter even Brady's records.
Bottom line, collect what you love, and if you make money down the line even better.

Yes and he will be bigger than Mantle.
3 things he got going for him.
1. Most of his fans will still be around in 50 years, while Mantle`s will be long gone.
2. Brady is very active on social media like Instagram, and there are way more youtube videos of Tom Brady in color than Mantle.
3. Tom Brady plays for the NFL which is a much bigger sport than the MLB.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR

Yes and he will be bigger than Mantle.
3 things he got going for him.
1. Most of his fans will still be around in 50 years, while Mantle`s will be long gone.
2. Brady is very active on social media like Instagram, and there are way more youtube videos of Tom Brady in color than Mantle.
3. Tom Brady plays for the NFL which is a much bigger sport than the MLB.

Disagree.
1. Mantle has a strong fan base among the same age group as Brady's fan base. Mantle has already shown the ability to be relevant to generations that never saw him play.

2. This could change very easily when Brady retires. Will he be able to stay in the limelight or will he be forgotten for the next hot rookie of SB MVP? Will he sign at card shows like Mantle did for years?

3. NFL is more popular now, but NFL cards are by far the least collected of the 3 main sports. Also, the NFL could easily lose its popularity. The kneeling during the national anthem has hurt its popularity. The problems with CTE threatens the game long term.

[jefferyepayne]

Originally Posted by rats60

Disagree.
NFL is more popular now, but NFL cards are by far the least collected of the 3 main sports.

Really? Where is this data coming from?

The POP reports say otherwise. Football is far ahead of all of the other sports besides baseball at this point in terms of cards graded.

jeff

[rats60]

Originally Posted by jefferyepayne

Really? Where is this data coming from?

The POP reports say otherwise. Football is far ahead of all of the other sports besides baseball at this point in terms of cards graded.

jeff

Basketball cards are far more popular than Football. It has a huge international following where Football is mainly limited to the US. Even in the US, the demand for Basketball is higher. You just have to look at sales and secondary market prices for products over the last 33 years.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by jefferyepayne

The POP reports say otherwise.

Where are you finding pop report totals? How many 2018 basketball cards have been graded by each of the 3 grading companies vs. 2018 football cards? 2017 cards? 2016 cards? ... 2000 cards?

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

Originally Posted by rats60

Disagree.
1. Mantle has a strong fan base among the same age group as Brady's fan base. Mantle has already shown the ability to be relevant to generations that never saw him play.

2. This could change very easily when Brady retires. Will he be able to stay in the limelight or will he be forgotten for the next hot rookie of SB MVP? Will he sign at card shows like Mantle did for years?

3. NFL is more popular now, but NFL cards are by far the least collected of the 3 main sports. Also, the NFL could easily lose its popularity. The kneeling during the national anthem has hurt its popularity. The problems with CTE threatens the game long term.

Rebuttal to the 2 and 3 points.
With point 2. Tom Brady will never have to sign card shows as Brady made way more money than the Mick.
with point 3 the Super Bowl destroys the World Series in the TV ratings, in fact most regular NFL games destroy the WS in the TV ratings.
Tom Brady right now is the king and most popular sports figure in all of American sports. I honestly don't think the Mick has a chance against Tom Brady with future generations. I would be selling my Mickey Mantles key cards now to load up on Tom Brady key cards.

[rats60]

LeBron James is far more popular than Tom Brady, especially when it comes to the card market. You also just proved my point #2. A huge part of Mantle's popularity was meeting fans at card shows and staying in the hobby spot light. When Michael Jordan retired, his cards took a significant drop. I expect the same thing to happen with Brady. If he disappears from the hobby spotlight, there won't be new collectors after his cards. The only thing that brought collectors back to Jordan was being the spokesperson for Upper Deck. They won't be doing that with Tom Brady.

I would buy the Brady over Namath, but Brady is never going to approach the popularity of Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth in the hobby. Most people don't care for football cards. They are a distant 3rd behind baseball and basketball in the hobby food chain.

[jefferyepayne]

Originally Posted by rats60

LeBron James is far more popular than Tom Brady, especially when it comes to the card market. You also just proved my point #2. A huge part of Mantle's popularity was meeting fans at card shows and staying in the hobby spot light. When Michael Jordan retired, his cards took a significant drop. I expect the same thing to happen with Brady. If he disappears from the hobby spotlight, there won't be new collectors after his cards. The only thing that brought collectors back to Jordan was being the spokesperson for Upper Deck. They won't be doing that with Tom Brady.

I would buy the Brady over Namath, but Brady is never going to approach the popularity of Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth in the hobby. Most people don't care for football cards. They are a distant 3rd behind baseball and basketball in the hobby food chain.

You keep saying this but won't provide any data. The only data I can find is from PSA which of course is biased info but there have been nearly twice as many football cards as basketball cards graded in their history. In the past couple of years it is true that more basketball cards have been graded than football cards for new releases but that isn't true historically. Does that mean football is somehow a "distant third"? Don't think so. There have been other years when basketball cards have been graded at a higher rate than football cards but these periods of time have always been followed by football overtaking basketball again (at least looking at the only info I have which is PSA). Basketball is certainly popular but has never show to be sustainable in the hobby. Perhaps this is now changing but I wouldn't base that on the last few years only. The fact that you cite that football isn't strong in the hobby because there isn't much of a discussion in the Net54 BASEBALL forum about it, tells me you aren't connect at all with what is going on in the football portion of the hobby.

It is very true that basketball is an international sport much more than american football and that should help basketball continue to do well. But if you take modern cards out of the equation, vintage football cards continue to be graded at a far faster rate than vintage basketball cards do. I'm looking at the entire hobby, not just the rate at which newer collectors choose to get sparkly new cards graded.

Finally, if you think football is going anywhere in terms of popularity, you are delusional. Even with the CTE issues and off-field challenges, the sport remains the most popular one in the US and draws well when the NFL plays outside the country. In general I find those that talk about the demise of football are people who just don't like the sport and are looking for reasons to tear it apart. Football isn't going anywhere in terms of a decrease in popularity and international sales of HOFer cards has been increasing as well.

jeff

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR

Yes and he will be bigger than Mantle.
3 things he got going for him.
1. Most of his fans will still be around in 50 years, while Mantle`s will be long gone.
2. Brady is very active on social media like Instagram, and there are way more youtube videos of Tom Brady in color than Mantle.
3. Tom Brady plays for the NFL which is a much bigger sport than the MLB.

1) Ty Cobb's fans are long gone, and yet his cards sell for insane amounts of money. The same goes for Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio, etc.

2) How many videos can you find of Cobb and the others? I found one Cobb video now on YouTube that is just over two minutes long and that's it. The number of videos someone has on the Internet is totally irrelevant to collectors.

3) Then why is this football forum so dead? Also, how many football cards do you see getting exchanged in the BST?

[jefferyepayne]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

1) Ty Cobb's fans are long gone, and yet his cards sell for insane amounts of money. The same goes for Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio, etc.

2) How many videos can you find of Cobb and the others? I found one Cobb video now on YouTube that is just over two minutes long and that's it. The number of videos someone has on the Internet is totally irrelevant to collectors.

3) Then why is this football forum so dead? Also, how many football cards do you see getting exchanged in the BST?

I agree with your first two points. Unfortunately, MLB has always done a much better job glorifying its past than the NFL has. The NFL simply doesn't appear interested in their history at all. I believe this is one of the major reasons why old time baseball players are still known while old time football stars are not and I'm not sure this is gonna change.

Your third point isn't a valid argument, though. Net54 is a BASEBALL forum that has a single football category. IMHO this forum is not where football collectors go to buy/sell/talk about football for the most part. There are some great football facebook groups out there that have a lot of traffic. Also my Vintage Football Community (VFC) forum where we've had more new football threads started in the past 17 months than Net54 has had football threads in the past 8 years. And that is not a slight on Net54 at all as football isn't its main focus!

jeff

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by jefferyepayne

Your third point isn't a valid argument, though. Net54 is a BASEBALL forum that has a single football category. IMHO this forum is not where football collectors go to buy/sell/talk about football for the most part. There are some great football facebook groups out there that have a lot of traffic. Also my Vintage Football Community (VFC) forum where we've had more new football threads started in the past 17 months than Net54 has had football threads in the past 8 years. And that is not a slight on Net54 at all as football isn't its main focus!

You're right. It's the same reason why the hockey/basketball forum is dead. It's not as if they aren't sought-after, because they definitely are, however, collectors of these cards just don't come on here looking for them.

I also want to say that I wasn't taking a jab at football cards because I love them! I recently had a buddy of mine, who owed me some money over some hockey cards that I had given him, ask me if I was interested in taking some of his vintage football cards instead of cash and I told him it depended on what he had. The guy sent me a photo and I nearly fell out of my chair! He had this big lot of 57s! Now the Unitas was OC, and most of them are like this, however, his Starr was beautiful! I phoned him right up and I was like "yes, yes, I want it!"

I have read hundreds of future predictions on this forum, but the statements being made by MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR are completely nuts! Here is his recent one:

Originally Posted by MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR

I honestly don't think the Mick has a chance against Tom Brady with future generations. I would be selling my Mickey Mantles key cards now to load up on Tom Brady key cards.

I was trying to figure out why he kept making these statements until he posted this earlier today on the main forum:

Originally Posted by MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR

For me I am not a fan of the current Houston Astros, and this was before the cheating scandal. I usually like everybody. Just something about that team. btw I am a Red Sox fan.

I rest my case.

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

You're right. It's the same reason why the hockey/basketball forum is dead. It's not as if they aren't sought-after, because they definitely are, however, collectors of these cards just don't come on here looking for them.

I also want to say that I wasn't taking a jab at football cards because I love them! I recently had a buddy of mine, who owed me some money over some hockey cards that I had given him, ask me if I was interested in taking some of his vintage football cards instead of cash and I told him it depended on what he had. The guy sent me a photo and I nearly fell out of my chair! He had this big lot of 57s! Now the Unitas was OC, and most of them are like this, however, his Starr was beautiful! I phoned him right up and I was like "yes, yes, I want it!"

I have read hundreds of future predictions on this forum, but the statements being made by MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR are completely nuts! Here is his recent one:



I was trying to figure out why he kept making these statements until he posted this earlier today on the main forum:



I rest my case.

LOL. You found out I am a big Boston sports fan. Honestly, I don't find the Mick that big a deal. Maybe because I was born after him? I do love Elvis and the Beatles though because I ended liking their youtube videos. I will still stand by my statement in the end Tom Brady will be the king sportscard over the Mick. I even think Jordan and LeBron cards are better bets than Mantle. I just don't get the appeal of Mantle, heck I take Jackie Robinson or Ty Cobb over him. btw I respect Mantle but I just don't get why people go ga ga over him. I feel the same way with Trout as I rather have Mookie Betts.

[G1911]

I'd pick Brady, if these are the only two choices. As others have mentioned, Football doesn't make a big deal of its history like Baseball does. Every Baseball fan knows Cobb and Wagner and Ruth and Ted Williams and a dozen others, even if they don't much about them. Namath's fanbase will be leaving the hobby in the coming years, Brady's won't.


As for the Mantle and Namath comparison, I think they are quite different. NY stars of the same period, elevated above the peers, similar off-field behavior, even ran a business together. None the less, Mickey Mantle is one of the all time greatest baseball players by any measurement. Namath might be the worst quarterback in the Hall, by the numbers compared to their peers. 173 TD's and 220 Interceptions is not impressive, even for his era. Millenials are much more driven by statistics when they didn't see and don't have an emotional connection to the players of yore.


If I was to invest in cards, which I would not do, I would pick vintage Baseball or modern-era Basketball. I suspect I'm much younger than the average on this forum, in my late 20's. I don't know anyone who collects cards still in real life. My generation grew up collecting Pokemon mostly, and that's where their nostalgia (which, I think, is a big part of adult card collecting) goes. Some very high end items will always have value, as a display of wealth if not love of old cardboard, but who are the generations that had most boys collecting cards to some degree going to sell their collections to in 30 years?


When I go to a card show, there are maybe a handful of people under 40 there. The hobby friends I've made over the years through email and message boards are almost all twice as old as I am. Now I get that many people take their 20's and 30's off from collecting before coming back to the hobby once financially comfortable, but previously this has been driven by nostalgia, I think. Once one has disposable income, some return to the hobby of their youth. I am fortunate that I've been able to participate in the hobby for all but my four college years, but without that nostalgia factor, are we really going to see a spurt of millennials entering the hobby in the 2030's and 2040's? I doubt it.


Of course, there are some younger people collecting, but the primary interest is not collecting. It's making money and gambling. Most of the modern hobby revolves around buying $100 boxes that usually have $20 of cards in them, trying to hit that lottery ticket of [insert hottest prospect in current year]. Most of these lottery tickets are worthless in five years. I've joined a couple groups of primarily modern collectors, and the first question is always "what is it worth?" when I show something older than 2011 that they don't recognize. The gambling driven element of the hobby here doesn't seem to lead to long term value outside of a very small handful of cards like the Update Trout (we'll see if even that one holds, the supply is enormous for an expensive card), as the focus is on pulling a big hit and immediately cashing it out. You need actual collectors to sustain value long term, or the bottom will eventually fall out when you just have speculators selling to other speculators.


All my friends like sports, Football and Basketball are the most popular, but there is little interest in their history. I love vintage football, but nobody I actually know could give a hoot about seeing old cards of Starr and Unitas and they certainly have no clue who Baugh even is. My baseball fan friends don't collect either, but they do have an interest in the big names of the past, and will even take a binder or box down, unprompted, and flip them through when we watch a game at my house. Baseball has always mythologized its past, and has become tied to card collecting in general. Most baseball fans know about cards at least. MLB video games feature baseball cards in them, ballparks show Topps cards on the scoreboards and screens (at least they have in the Bay Area), and the Wagner and 52 Mantle are very well-known. I don't think most football fans today recognize Panini. There may be more Football fans, but a baseball fan is much, much more likely to be a card collector, or to be a person who might one day become a card collector. Basketball is quickly becoming the #1 sport, and some parts of Asia are taking to card collecting, with a preference for modern basketball.


I think another factor here is that, honestly, the hobby is difficult to get into and quite a hostile one. If buying new, a collector dipping their feet in is likely to lose 80% of their money when buying a new box. Or if vintage, they are flooded with a series of mis-represented reprints, altered cards, and outright fraud, even from cards graded by "reputable" companies, who seem mostly to be reputable because many people stand to lose a ton of money on investments if the entire hobby acknowledges the scandals that are, by now, too numerous to even list. It's tough to get started, and many of the early experiences are sure to leave a bad taste. I can't say I think my friends really make a worse choice by just buying PlayStations, taking 5 minutes to learn the controls of a new game, and then just relaxing and enjoying the experience.


I don't think card collecting is a strong long-term investment because most of its user base A) won't be around forever and B) has not passed the hobby down to my generation. If I had to invest in cards, I'd pick shiny modern basketball and hope the Asian market continues to grow as the NBA becomes the biggest and most popular sport, or vintage baseball. The biggest names in baseball history and very, very scarce material (I think we vastly underestimate the quantity of most vintage cards out there, as a general rule) seem the safest bets to me. Baseball fans will continue to know Mays and Mantle and Ruth and Young, and for very rare sets, you only need a handful of collectors to sustain high values.

Just my two cents , or maybe 3 after this essay