Bellinger vs. Yelich - MVP

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

But the Brewers also made post season, and without Yelich would not have made it.

You don't know this. The Brewers were behind the Cubs when Yelich got hurt. They got hot and passed the Cubs for the 2nd WC without Yelich even playing.

Bellinger got off to a hot start and the Dodgers built a big lead and cruised to the Division. You don't know that without that start maybe they struggle and choke in September. Also, last I looked defense is half the game. So, you can't discount a player's defense. Bellinger had the highest WAR and led the Dodgers to the best record. That is worthy of MVP. Just because he faded in meaningless games at the end of the season is no reason to take it from him when Yelich wasn't contributing at all down the stretch. If someone beats out Bellinger it should be Rendon, not Yelich.

[packs]

Bellinger had a good year but he's a star on a team of stars. I'm not sure anyone can say the Dodgers wouldn't have won their division without him unless you think he was worth the 21 wins they ran away with from Arizona.

Rendon is the true MVP. The Nationals would have been dead in the water without him and Soto and since Rendon had the better year, I'd give him the MVP.

[Peter_Spaeth]

From June on Bellinger hit about .260.

[frankbmd]

Rendon and crew will sweep to a World Series win, while Bellinger is sweeping the clubhouse floor at Chavez Ravine and Yelich cannot even kneel to pray for the MVP award with a broken knee cap.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by rats60

You don't know this. The Brewers were behind the Cubs when Yelich got hurt. They got hot and passed the Cubs for the 2nd WC without Yelich even playing.

Bellinger got off to a hot start and the Dodgers built a big lead and cruised to the Division. You don't know that without that start maybe they struggle and choke in September. Also, last I looked defense is half the game. So, you can't discount a player's defense. Bellinger had the highest WAR and led the Dodgers to the best record. That is worthy of MVP. Just because he faded in meaningless games at the end of the season is no reason to take it from him when Yelich wasn't contributing at all down the stretch. If someone beats out Bellinger it should be Rendon, not Yelich.

Oh come on. Seriously? "Defense is half the game?"

If you mean that a team spends nine half innings in the field, and nine hitting, then yes. If you mean to tell me that one player's defensive contribution is equal to his offensive contribution, I have to laugh.

Per BBR, Cody Bellinger's oWAR was 6.6. His dWAR was 1.9, and I refuse to believe that even the best right fielder in the game was worth two whole wins with his glove. In his last 14 seasons, Roberto Clemente topped Bellinger's 1.9 dWAR of 2019 exactly one time-2.5 in 1968. And I'm sorry, Bellinger, as good as he is, isn't Clemente.

By WAR contribution, Bellinger's defense is about 21-22%. That's not even 1/4, let alone half. You're grossly overstating the importance of defense.

And Bellinger "led the Dodgers to _____". Again, seriously?

If we believe BBR, which I think overstates his WAR, the Dodgers' sixth best player would have tied for Milwaukee's best guy not named Christian Yelich. Milwaukee's second highest WAR guy was Brandon Woodruff, who missed a full two months of the season.

Take away Bellinger's 9 wins (per WAR) from a 107 win team, and the Dodgers still have 98 wins. Stick a league average right fielder out there, and the Dodgers still come close to the century mark for wins.

The Brewers? They won 89. Take Yelich's 7.1 off (per BBR), or 7.8 per Fangraphs, and they're a .500 team. .500 teams don't make the playoffs.

The Dodgers had, by WAR:

Bellinger 9.0
Max Muncy 5.7
Hyun-Jin Ryu 5.3
Corey Seager 4.0
Justin Turner 3.7
Clayton Kershaw 3.6
Joc Pederson 3.3

Here's where Woodruff, Milwaukee's second best player comes in. Our best guy after the reigning MVP is Joc Pederson. Do the Brewers even sniff the playoffs? Not a chance in hell.

Bellinger had the best season for Los Angeles. But to suggest that he "lead" them to the playoffs is a joke. He coasted for the second half of the season, hitting .263. League average this year for the NL was .251. If the Dodgers weren't so deep, and in such a God awful division, Bellinger's nosedive in the second half would have cost his team dearly.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Oh come on. Seriously? "Defense is half the game?"

If you mean that a team spends nine half innings in the field, and nine hitting, then yes. If you mean to tell me that one player's defensive contribution is equal to his offensive contribution, I have to laugh.

Per BBR, Cody Bellinger's oWAR was 6.6. His dWAR was 1.9, and I refuse to believe that even the best right fielder in the game was worth two whole wins with his glove. In his last 14 seasons, Roberto Clemente topped Bellinger's 1.9 dWAR of 2019 exactly one time-2.5 in 1968. And I'm sorry, Bellinger, as good as he is, isn't Clemente.

By WAR contribution, Bellinger's defense is about 21-22%. That's not even 1/4, let alone half. You're grossly overstating the importance of defense.

And Bellinger "led the Dodgers to _____". Again, seriously?

If we believe BBR, which I think overstates his WAR, the Dodgers' sixth best player would have tied for Milwaukee's best guy not named Christian Yelich. Milwaukee's second highest WAR guy was Brandon Woodruff, who missed a full two months of the season.

Take away Bellinger's 9 wins (per WAR) from a 107 win team, and the Dodgers still have 98 wins. Stick a league average right fielder out there, and the Dodgers still come close to the century mark for wins.

The Brewers? They won 89. Take Yelich's 7.1 off (per BBR), or 7.8 per Fangraphs, and they're a .500 team. .500 teams don't make the playoffs.

The Dodgers had, by WAR:

Bellinger 9.0
Max Muncy 5.7
Hyun-Jin Ryu 5.3
Corey Seager 4.0
Justin Turner 3.7
Clayton Kershaw 3.6
Joc Pederson 3.3

Here's where Woodruff, Milwaukee's second best player comes in. Our best guy after the reigning MVP is Joc Pederson. Do the Brewers even sniff the playoffs? Not a chance in hell.

Bellinger had the best season for Los Angeles. But to suggest that he "lead" them to the playoffs is a joke. He coasted for the second half of the season, hitting .263. League average this year for the NL was .251. If the Dodgers weren't so deep, and in such a God awful division, Bellinger's nosedive in the second half would have cost his team dearly.

Justin Verlander has a WAR of 7.8. How much of that came from offense and how much came from defense? I don't think going 0 for 2 at the plate contributed at all to his total WAR. Of course those that control the ball the most, pitcher and catcher, contribute the most value and an OF less. That doesn't mean you can ignore the contribution of the OF to defense.

As far as Clemente vs. Bellinger you are comparing apples to oranges. Outfield defense in figured differently now because more data is available. That Clemente only exceeded 1.9 dWAR just shows that his defensive value is under represented by WAR, not that Bellinger's defense was not worth 1.9. More data leads to a more accurate value.

Finally, you don't add a team's WAR and get the team's wins. So, subtracting a player's WAR from a team's wins means nothing. I find it interesting that Brewers' fans at the beginning of September were saying that if Yelich led the Brewers to the playoffs, he deserved MVP. That is a defensible position. However, after he gets hurt to claim he still deserves it is not. The Brewers finished 3 games ahead in the wild card race. You can't say that Yelich's replacement wouldn't have got them to 86+ wins. Just look at how well the Brewers played without Yelich. It is all unknown and speculation. I give you credit for defending your team's player though.

[packs]

I just don't see how Yelich could possibly win when Rendon had the year he had and finished the season as an active player. Trout should win the AL MVP because his season was far and away so much better than anyone else's. But that isn't true in the NL and I don't think Yelich blew people away like Trout did.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yelich will not win. As between Bellinger and Rendon, Bellinger is the massive betting favorite, but I would not give it to him in light of the fact that after May he didn't play at anywhere near an MVP level and his season stats are skewed by his otherworldly start. Anyone want to give me 8 to 1, I'll take Rendon.

[Touch'EmAll]

Bill, thank you for the great analytical job. Very interesting to note that is was the Brewers pitching that predominately got them the end of season winning streak. And I contend that if Yelich wasn't so darn good, they wouldn't have even been in position to take advantage of a pitching based hot streak to get into the playoffs.

As of Oct. 15th, the Las Vegas odds:
Bellinger -200
Yelich +175
Rendon +800

I love Rendon, what he did, how he did, when he did - very nice season, indeed. Love to have him on my team. But that is long Vegas odds - over 4 times less likely to win than even the second choice. Realistically however, wayyy slim chance. This coming from Vegas with actual hard money being put on the line.

From May onward (majority of season), a .260 hitter is kinda hard to choke down as an MVP is it not. Yes, Bellinger better defensively, but I don't think Yelich stunk up the joint with his defense.

Hands down the best hitter, the most consistent hitter, the hitter with better averages, the hitter with better power, across the board is Yelich. C'mon you guys, can't really honestly against argue that. Side note not yet mentioned - Not sure if stolen bases go into WAR calculation, but Yelich dominates over Bellinger there.

Curious - Anyone know which player to ever win MVP going into announcement had longest odds?

[Touch'EmAll]

Another note on Stolen Bases. Yelich had 30 stolen bases and only 2 caught. That is the highest success ratio of any of the top base stealers. Bellinger not even remotely close.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

I just don't see how Yelich could possibly win when Rendon had the year he had and finished the season as an active player. Trout should win the AL MVP because his season was far and away so much better than anyone else's. But that isn't true in the NL and I don't think Yelich blew people away like Trout did.

Remind me who had the highest WPA (win probability added) in the Major Leagues? It wasn't Mike "the WAR darling" Trout. It certainly wasn't Rendon.

MLB WPA leaders (Win Probability Added for Offensive Player. Given average teams, this is the change in probability caused by this batter during the game. A change of +/- 1 would indicate one win added or lost.)

1. Christian Yelich 7.121
2. Mike Trout 5.198
3. Cody Bellinger 4.986
4. Anthony Rendon 4.760

"The year Rendon had?" If you play baseball to win the game, Christian Yelich was the best offensive player in the NL by a huge margin. Not Anthony Rendon. Yelich's bat was worth two more wins than any other hitter in the game.

Yelich was the NL MVP last year with a 1.000 OPS. Granted, the ball this year was clearly more "lively" (and I'm not going to get into a discussion if the balls were juiced). But the year after his MVP, he raised his OPS by 10%. His OPS+, which factors in park, league averages, went from 164 in 2018 to 179 in 2019. That's a substantial bump in performance. If you were told you were the best player in the league, and next year, you boosted your league-best performance by 10%, you'd think you'd repeat as MVP, wouldn't you?

Yelich had the second best AVG in the Majors. Highest OBP in the NL, second best in MLB. Highest SLG and OPS in baseball. He had the highest HR rate in the NL (only Trout was better in baseball), and the best stolen base success rate of any qualified player in Major League Baseball.

There's really no argument to be made for Anthony Rendon over Yelich. Rendon was slightly above average defensively +0.3 dWAR. Yelich slightly to moderately below, -0.7.

But WAR takes all that into consideration.

bWAR
Yelich 7.1
Rendon 6.3

fWAR
Yelich 7.8
Rendon 7.0

Rendon played 16 more games than Yelich, yet his WAR on both sites is nearly a full point (0.8) lower than Yelich.

Where's the argument to be made for Anthony Rendon over Christian Yelich?

Go back to the team strength discussion. Rendon didn't even lead his own TEAM in WAR.

Per BBR
Stephen Strasburg 6.5
Rendon 6.3
Max Scherzer 5.8
Patrick Corbin 5.4
Juan Soto 4.7
Victor Robles 4.1
Anibal Sanchez 3.3

Again, Brandon Woodruff was Milwaukee's second best player, by WAR at 3.3. He would have been the seventh-best player on the Nationals.

Anthony Rendon had a hell of a lot more help getting Washington to that Wild Card game than Christian Yelich did.

So, again, tell me: what's the argument to be made for Anthony Rendon being more valuable than Yelich?

MLB runs created leader:

1. Christian Yelich 150
Alex Bregman 150
3. Cody Bellinger 146
4. Mike Trout 145
5. Anthony Rendon 139

Rendon had a great year. But not a better, or more valuable one than Christian Yelich.

How many guys in the past have been their league's best hitter by AVG, OBP, SLG, home run rate, and its best base stealer?

Ronald Acuna led the NL with 37 stolen bases. But he was thrown out 8 times. That's an 82.2% success rate. Trea Turner stole 35, but was thrown out 5 times. That's an 87.5% success rate. Yelich stole 30 in 32 tries. That's a 93.75% success rate.

Yelich vs Trout?

Trout hit .291. Yelich .329.
Trout OBP .438. Yelich .429.
Trout SLG .645. Yelich .671.
Trout 11/13 SB, Yelich 30/32.
Trout 600 PA, Yelich 580 PA.

Trout walks about 4.5% more, hence a higher OBP. That's Trout's advantage as an offensive player right now. But the advantage is narrowing.

[packs]

I think you're the only person who commented that thinks Yelich should win. Not sure anyone voting will look at things the way you are re: the stats you picked to talk about.

[frankbmd]

The posts supporting Yelich are by far the longest.

Bill, I’m with you.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

I think you're the only person who commented that thinks Yelich should win. Not sure anyone voting will look at things the way you are re: the stats you picked to talk about.

The stats I picked to talk about? Average, home runs, OPS, first and second half splits, leverage situations?

Those aren't numbers some theoretical physicist had to extract from a massive pile of data. Those are some pretty straightforward metrics.

Even a trained monkey can see that a half year hitting .265 isn't MVP worthy.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

But WAR takes all that into consideration.

bWAR
Yelich 7.1
Rendon 6.3

fWAR
Yelich 7.8
Rendon 7.0

I hope that you realize that those numbers are not statistically significant, they are within the margin of error. Rendon led his team to the playoffs, Yelich did not. Even Yelich has said he doesn't think he is the NL MVP.

[tjenkins]

Maybe it should be a Fred Lynn......Pete Alonso, ROY and MVP