MLB is not that easy - For some players it’s all downhill

[rats60]

Russ Ford went 26-6 1.65 ERA .881 WHIP 209 Ks 11.4 WAR as a rookie in 1910. He even has a t205 to commemorate the season.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by rats60

Russ Ford went 26-6 1.65 ERA .881 WHIP 209 Ks 11.4 WAR as a rookie in 1910. He even has a t205 to commemorate the season.

I thought this was the prewar player I was trying to find, but..........


He pitched 3 innings in 1909. My decision to exclude players with insignificant first years was based on not having to determine where to draw the line.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Arguably, Ichiro.

[maniac_73]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Arguably, Ichiro.

U being serious?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Ichiro was MVP his rookie year. Never was higher than 7th after that. Never had as many SB or RBI. Only topped his OPS once. Same with WAR.

[sycks22]

Ichiro can't be serious is it? Led the league in hits 7x's, hit .371, .352 and .351 in other seasons. He also had the most hits in a season with 262 in 2004. I wouldn't call that falling off.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by sycks22

Ichiro can't be serious is it? Led the league in hits 7x's, hit .371, .352 and .351 in other seasons. He also had the most hits in a season with 262 in 2004. I wouldn't call that falling off.

The question did not ask about falling off. It asked about which player's first season was his best. I said arguably, Ichiro's rookie MVP year was his best, although one could certainly argue 2004 was better.

[philliesphan]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ichiro was MVP his rookie year. Never was higher than 7th after that. Never had as many SB or RBI. Only topped his OPS once. Same with WAR.

I would take Ichiro's 2004 over his 2001 any day - the only meaningful stat that was worse was fewer stolen bases.

[gonzo]

Ralph Houk

Of his 20 years as a manager, his rookie season helming the 1961 Yankees was easily his best.

As a bonus, his career as a player stretched 91 games over 8 years, and his rookie year as a player was his most productive.

[howard38]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

I thought this was the prewar player I was trying to find, but..........


He pitched 3 innings in 1909. My decision to exclude players with insignificant first years was based on not having to determine where to draw the line.

Could be Vean Gregg is the pre-war pitcher you were thinking of. For pre-war batters it would be hard to top jimmy Williams.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by howard38

Could be Vean Gregg is the pre-war pitcher you were thinking of. For pre-war batters it would be hard to top jimmy Williams.

Both Gregg and J Williams are excellent candidates with lengthy careers and progressive decline from their rookie years that you don’t need a micrometer to measure.

Both surpass anyone already mentioned and clearly satisfy the criteria. Both also had careers spanning at least 10 years.

[brian1961]

Tom Tresh, Yankees, ROY 1962 with a great World Series performance.

Though this pitcher's 2nd year was a bit better than his first, from his 3rd year to his last, Gary Peters never came close to '63 / '64. A year or two later, Gary even led the AL in ERA, but the lousy-hitting ChiSox couldn't seem to give him much support, and he wound up with a 12-10 record that year.

Another pitcher whose first year was easily his best was Brooklyn Dodger great, Joe Black, with a ROY in '52, and 1-2 victories over the Yankees in the Series.

The last player I thought of was Charlie "King Kong" Keller of the 1939 Yankees. I just recall his batting average was really good his rookie year, then tailed off thereafter.

Well, at least these fine players had some strong moments of MLB glory.

--- Brian Powell

[ValKehl]

Satchel Paige: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...aigesa01.shtml

[frankbmd]

Tresh had a cup of coffee, before his ROY year.

Keller is marginal unless you only consider his BA

Paige was okay as a 41 y/o rookie, and I guess qualifies, but like Ichiro, he had a significant body of work in an alt ML before getting to the bigs.

By the way Ichiro’s first two years in Japan would disqualify him.

And yes, Joe Black is good, much like Fidrych, but both had only 5-6 years in the ML.

I still like Jimmy Williams and Gregg better for their longer number of years to decline.

Thanks to all for their participation. My hunch though is there are still some sleepers yet to be uncovered.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

I thought this was the prewar player I was trying to find, but..........


He pitched 3 innings in 1909. My decision to exclude players with insignificant first years was based on not having to determine where to draw the line.

If not Ford, then Vean Gregg. 23-7 1.80 ERA 1.054 WHIP 8.8 WAR 10th in MVP voting. Led league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP and H/9. He had 2 more productive years, but neither as good as his first and then struggled with injuries.

If you are going by WAR it would be Fidrych, but another prewar pitcher would be Irv Young who had 9.3 WAR as a rookie and negative .8 for the rest of his career. His W/L wasn't that great 20-21, but 41 CG, 7 SH, 378 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.079 WHIP. Led league in WAR for pitchers, IP and CG. 2nd in shutouts, 5th in wins, Ks 6th in WHIP. He was on a really bad team the Braves went 51-103.

[rats60]

Here is the best modern era regular player, Mitchell Page with Oakland in 1977. He hit .307/.405/.521 with an OPS+ 154 WAR 6.1. His career WAR is 8.1. 21 HR 75 RBI 85 runs scored. He saw a significant drop his 2nd year to 2.3 WAR and the stuck around for 6 more years as a replacement level player under 1 WAR. Interesting that future Hofer Eddie Murray beat him out for ROY by 3 votes by hitting 6 more HR and driving in 13 more runs, but with much lower ave, obp, slg and only 3.2 WAR.