Proof that the market value for PSA and 'conserved' cards have dropped

[drcy]

In these discussions, I often use the words worth less, but not worthless.

And, yes, there are uncertainties, unknowns, gray areas and matters of opinion and different viewpoints in this topic, including when trying to devise a market valuation system (which I am not doing-- in the current environment I don't think it can be done).

Here and elsewhere in my life, I often point out that things, systems and calculations are inaccurate, and leave it at that.

I've long railed against the PSA Registry because, for many reasons, it presents a false certainty, a false representation of reality and the statistical calculation methodology is incorrect. It's long offended my sense of logic and common sense . . . As an online game or fun showcase of collections webpage, that is fine. However, so much of the hobby and pricing and grading methods (and ethics) are influenced by the registry.

With the current scandal, people are realizing that the Registry numbers and calculation totals can't be more accurate and precise than the margin of error in grading and especially alteration detection. No doubt, to some people and due to the prevalence of as yet unknown number of mislabelled altered cards, the Registry numbers mean nothing now. All they know is that the numbers can't be correct. In this very thread, someone pointed out cards in the Registry with wrong numbers (number graded cards that have been shown to be altered).

[Stampsfan]

Great angle to proceed with, David. I like the way you are thinking.

I'd like to propose an alternative. First, let me say I have no skin in the registry, nor do I have six figures to buy the best of the best. Just an alternate theory:

What if, by exposing the altered cards, it actually increases the value of the remaining cards?

Now, this theory assumes the remaining graded cards are indeed unaltered and legitimate.

Let's assume there are 15 PSA 9's of a certain card, and using your values they are "worth" $1000. Now 7 of them are deemed altered, and they are removed. They are now "worth" $30, but further, by definition they are not PSA 9's. Therefore the value of a PSA 9 remains the same, and all altered cards continue to be worth $30.

Finally, there are now only 8 PSA 9's of this particular card. Does that now mean the PSA 9's are actually worth more, because there is less supply of them?

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Great angle to proceed with, David. I like the way you are thinking.

I'd like to propose an alternative. First, let me say I have no skin in the registry, nor do I have six figures to buy the best of the best. Just an alternate theory:

What if, by exposing the altered cards, it actually increases the value of the remaining cards?

Now, this theory assumes the remaining graded cards are indeed unaltered and legitimate.

Let's assume there are 15 PSA 9's of a certain card, and using your values they are "worth" $1000. Now 7 of them are deemed altered, and they are removed. They are now "worth" $30, but further, by definition they are not PSA 9's. Therefore the value of a PSA 9 remains the same, and all altered cards continue to be worth $30.

Finally, there are now only 8 PSA 9's of this particular card. Does that now mean the PSA 9's are actually worth more, because there is less supply of them?

This for instance -

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-...gAAOSwlOVdgowK

I would estimate value right around $33K - Seems to be no lack of higher than that "investors"

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

This for instance -

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-...gAAOSwlOVdgowK

I would estimate value right around $33K - Seems to be no lack of higher than that "investors"

My first immediate thought.....was this card residing in a 6 holder 2 years ago ?

I hate to be this way but that’s my first impression of all PSA high grade cards

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

My first immediate thought.....was this card residing in a 6 holder 2 years ago ?

I hate to be this way but that’s my first impression of all PSA high grade cards

Me too!!! And further when this high grade rookie “boom” began a few years ago...in no world that i live in is a card from the 50’s-60’s “worth” this kind of cabbage!!!

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Me too!!! And further when this high grade rookie “boom” began a few years ago...in no world that i live in is a card from the 50’s-60’s “worth” this kind of cabbage!!!

In Two.....Words Market Manipulation or Bull to The S Pick either two words

Granted 55 Topps of all the Big Cards the Clemente, in my personal experience, is the most difficult one to find nice, it’s harder then the others....

Still in my mind a Sold Centered Clemente 55 Topps 8 should be in the $20k range tops ......not $30,000 plus that’s Kabookie Theater....

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

My first immediate thought.....was this card residing in a 6 holder 2 years ago ?

I hate to be this way but that’s my first impression of all PSA high grade cards

Me too. I know they're trimmed. That's the difference. You don't have to beat me over the head with a sludge hammer too many times. I figured it out.

It is A SCAM pure and simple. Some still have some work to do and may never see it. Because people these days are inherently stupid and they don't see their hand in front of their face or don't want to.

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Me too. I know they're trimmed. That's the difference. You don't have to beat me over the head with a sludge hammer too many times. I figured it out.

It is A SCAM pure and simple. Some still have some work to do and may never see it. Because people these days are inherently stupid and they don't see their hand in front of their face or don't want to.

Actually, no, it wasn't in a 6 holder 2 years ago.


Date

Price

Auction House

Lot Number


11/4/2017 $25,088.00 eBay (battlefield0516) 132384001645
5/14/2016 $131,450.00 Heritage Auctions 80893

[swarmee]

It depends on whether or not the entire thing falls apart, because registry contestants no longer believe in high grade slabs OR give up on the collecting concept.

If people continually get scammed as they are, do they pull out of their collections and start selling off in quantity? Or do they continue to fill the gaps in their sets with the only remaining high grade cards on the market? It's kind of like this:


Take the 1948 Leaf (baseball, football, boxing) sets, which have been found to be completely inaccurate. If one person who had 10 altered high value cards out of the complete set of 100, are they going to feel enough animosity to PSA to sell their 90 "good" cards or are they going to buy back the 10 cards they now need? How do they (or the market) trust their own "good" cards? What if it's 15 altered or 20 altered out of 100? Each collector will have their own breaking point.

I have seen a bunch of collectors post something to the effect of: "Man, I hope these cards all lose their value because I'll be right there with my cash to buy them on the downswing!" But is that just talk? Are they willing to buy into a recession downswing?

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Great angle to proceed with, David. I like the way you are thinking.

I'd like to propose an alternative. First, let me say I have no skin in the registry, nor do I have six figures to buy the best of the best. Just an alternate theory:

What if, by exposing the altered cards, it actually increases the value of the remaining cards?

Now, this theory assumes the remaining graded cards are indeed unaltered and legitimate.

Let's assume there are 15 PSA 9's of a certain card, and using your values they are "worth" $1000. Now 7 of them are deemed altered, and they are removed. They are now "worth" $30, but further, by definition they are not PSA 9's. Therefore the value of a PSA 9 remains the same, and all altered cards continue to be worth $30.

Finally, there are now only 8 PSA 9's of this particular card. Does that now mean the PSA 9's are actually worth more, because there is less supply of them?

NM

[Robbie]

@drcy

David...

Please correct me if I am wrong... but to your credit, I believe that this is what you have anticipated regarding market pricing of cards, and have referred to in several prior posts.

I am no longer a card guy, however I believe as "alteration" definitions are clarified there will be a fairly dramatic change from how cards are currently valued.

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Great angle to proceed with, David. I like the way you are thinking.

I'd like to propose an alternative. First, let me say I have no skin in the registry, nor do I have six figures to buy the best of the best. Just an alternate theory:

What if, by exposing the altered cards, it actually increases the value of the remaining cards?

Now, this theory assumes the remaining graded cards are indeed unaltered and legitimate.

Let's assume there are 15 PSA 9's of a certain card, and using your values they are "worth" $1000. Now 7 of them are deemed altered, and they are removed. They are now "worth" $30, but further, by definition they are not PSA 9's. Therefore the value of a PSA 9 remains the same, and all altered cards continue to be worth $30.

Finally, there are now only 8 PSA 9's of this particular card. Does that now mean the PSA 9's are actually worth more, because there is less supply of them?

[Bigdaddy]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Great angle to proceed with, David. I like the way you are thinking.

I'd like to propose an alternative. First, let me say I have no skin in the registry, nor do I have six figures to buy the best of the best. Just an alternate theory:

What if, by exposing the altered cards, it actually increases the value of the remaining cards?

Now, this theory assumes the remaining graded cards are indeed unaltered and legitimate.

Let's assume there are 15 PSA 9's of a certain card, and using your values they are "worth" $1000. Now 7 of them are deemed altered, and they are removed. They are now "worth" $30, but further, by definition they are not PSA 9's. Therefore the value of a PSA 9 remains the same, and all altered cards continue to be worth $30.

Finally, there are now only 8 PSA 9's of this particular card. Does that now mean the PSA 9's are actually worth more, because there is less supply of them?

Yep.