PSA Debacle - What to do for a Novice Collector?

[Exhibitman]

Just find and buy a nice raw lower to middle grade card from a reputable dealer and forget about this slabbing crap.

[mferronibc]

Great thread. So David, are you suggesting that the value spread between graded cards will start to narrow? I.e that the difference between a graded 5 and 8 may someday only be a few hundred bucks instead of a few thousand given the mounting absurdity to the specific grades being gospel and the growing sense that the 8 grade is more likely to be altered in some way and the 5 more likely completely authentic?

[drcy]

Originally Posted by mferronibc

Great thread. So David, are you suggesting that the value spread between graded cards will start to narrow? I.e that the difference between a graded 5 and 8 may someday only be a few hundred bucks instead of a few thousand given the mounting absurdity to the specific grades being gospel and the growing sense that the 8 grade is more likely to be altered in some way and the 5 more likely completely authentic?

As I've said repeatedly before, it doesn't require everyone to change their minds to alter the market and values. It requires merely a large enough percentage. That there are people, even many people, who cling to and want you to cling to the old "Move along, nothing to see here" theory of card valuation may prove to be neither here nor there.

I believe that no one with knowledge of the current scandal considers high graded cards the same as before. You see this even on the PSA boards. This change in consideration and sentiments will change or shift values in the future. Plus, there will be a shrinking of the market for such cards. Even on the PSA board, posters say they won't, if at least currently, buy such cards, and many future collectors, otherwise would have, simply won't enter that game and/or accept the old "ignore that the label is wrong" paradigm.

And, as I said, the law puts a big chink in the "just ignore that the label is wrong" financial model. Irrelevant to their sentiments and valuation beliefs, I'm sure many wealthy Registry people aren't about to follow the PWCC model of selling known altered cards. And guess what? It was that illegal PWCC model, coupled with the before-the-scandal collector's sentiments and lack of awareness of how many cards are altered and mislabelled, that created the market values.

To think the valuations, especially of high-grade cards, won't be shifted and changed in the future is daft. How exactly they will be shifted and changed I don't know. However, I'm certain many future, and current, collectors aren't going to pay the current, or recent, rate of 50x value for the removed wrinkle, erased pinpoint spot or lightly pressed left corner. And, believe it or not, not everyone (obviously) but many collectors and investors are not going to say "The card is grade poor but the label is wrong as says it's a 10, so I'm going to pay the higher 10 value."

Millions of dollars worth of current collectors and invistors, including on the PSA board, are already asking for and have asked for their money back for such mislabeled cards-- which, in and of itself, demonstrates that they value, or fear/know others value, such cards less than what was paid. And it only takes a good percentage of those people, coupled with the evergrowing expansion of the knowledge of how many cards are mislabelled like that, to shift market values-- and the returns to PWCC for refunds shows that they already exist. The value for all those millions of dollars of "ignore the card, and price by the label" cards have already fallen, and won't be valued the same if they return to the market. I would offer that as proof in the pudding.

All one has to do to answer the qeustion is ask oneself how many of those outed cards are valued the same. I would guess that 99.9% are valued less, usually majorly less. that what was paid. As evidenced by all the returns, refunds and the ubiquitous, even on the PSA boards, question "What do I do if my card is outed on Blowout cards?"

PSA isn't saying "Return the mislabelled cards to the seller for a full refund" because they think the cards have the same market value as before. They are saying that because even they know the cards are worth than what was paid. They are saying that the realization, both to the collector and the general hobby that the card is altered and does not match the label has devalued the card enough that their official advice is "Get your money back."

And to think some people are claiming "Values won't change"? (?!?!) Even PSA doesn't believe that. Even PSA is saying "You overpaid. The card isn't worth that much, get a refund."

[clydepepper]

I've been steering clear of graded cards lately. I have been purchasing the best condition raw cards I can find from dealers with clean, extensive track records...for the right price.

I'll hold onto those and let all this *#$% settle down before considering having them graded.

[geosluggo]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Just find and buy a nice raw lower to middle grade card from a reputable dealer and forget about this slabbing crap.

This has generally been my philosophy. But when I completed a 1954 Topps set recently there were so many suspicious Aaron cards that I ended up buying a low-grade PSA card to be sure of its authenticity. Then I liberated it from its slab.

[Exhibitman]

Hence the "reputable dealer" part. Like Scottsdale Baseball Cards. I know Brian wouldn't sell a dodgy card and if one did get by he'd make good on it.

However, buying a lower grade card and cracking it out is a good strategy too. Though the newer PSA holders and the Beckett holders do make that a challenge to safely execute.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

However, buying a lower grade card and cracking it out is a good strategy too. Though the newer PSA holders and the Beckett holders do make that a challenge to safely execute.

I've followed this strategy a lot here in 2018-19. PSA does remain the most difficult slab to crack correctly. Some give up easily and the two sides separate as if held together by weak Elmer's glue. But others are drudgery and take forever going a centimeter at a time down the seal on each side...

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Hence the "reputable dealer" part. Like Scottsdale Baseball Cards. I know Brian wouldn't sell a dodgy card and if one did get by he'd make good on it.

However, buying a lower grade card and cracking it out is a good strategy too. Though the newer PSA holders and the Beckett holders do make that a challenge to safely execute.

Moser, Card-guy and 100's of others don't seem to have any troubles cracking the cards out of holders. They should teach a class on it....and the spa treatments they offer.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Though the newer PSA holders and the Beckett holders do make that a challenge to safely execute.

Cracking slabs on the whole is more difficult in some cases than it used to be, but still not prohibitively so if you do some research and take your time. There are multiple YouTube videos out there for each TPG. SGC is perhaps the easiest; you just compromise the seal in the sides and usually can slowly pull the 2 sides of the slab apart. Beckett looks the most intimidating, but just because the slab works like a shoebox - the top half sits on the lower half like a lid. If you take pliers or a cutting tool and snip off both edges and can get a little torque on one side - you can flip up the “lid” part of the upper slab just like on a shoe box and it will (at least in my experience) start to give very easily. Beckett of course then you have to cut the card out of their “inner sleeve” - which unlike a penny sleeve is sealed at the top as well. This is self-evident, but you have to be careful with whatever scissors you use not to get too close to the card. PSA I think is the most difficult to bust - because in my experience their QC and the quality of their slab strength and seal, etc. are all over the place. You start by snipping corners just like with Beckett. But then you have to work the seal more slowly with a flathead screwdriver all the way around. This is where I have found that some then pop-up easily, but others - sometimes maybe older ones - give only grudgingly and you will have a lot of small pieces of plastic break off, and a lot more start and stop.

The only card I have ever damaged was with an SGC slab before I properly understood that you could just pull the sides apart. I instead tried to open it as if it were a PSA slab by cracking up the sides with a screwdriver. When I did this, unfortunately the weak plastic on the face of one side of the slab began to splinter, creating a lot of super tiny and razor sharp pieces of plastic at the area where it broke. Unfortunately that card was a ‘56 Clemente. I turned it from a 5 into a 2 in about 30 seconds... :-(




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[Oscar_Stanage]

What does it mean if the cert # is not in the PSA database? I am looking at buying a card, but when I lookup the cert #, it says "no information found"

Is the slab just really old?

[swarmee]

Contact PSA. They may have removed it for a reason.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Contact PSA. They may have removed it for a reason.

thank you, John.
I did. The problem is this is an item closing at auction tonight... so doubtful I will have an answer in time.

[OlderTheBetter]

Originally Posted by geosluggo

This has generally been my philosophy. But when I completed a 1954 Topps set recently there were so many suspicious Aaron cards that I ended up buying a low-grade PSA card to be sure of its authenticity. Then I liberated it from its slab.

I break out every slabbed card that I buy to complete my sets.

I'm not interested in selling them to break a set so no need to have them slabbed. I hate looking at cards in slabs -- it's just not natural.

I do have some single cards that are slabbed -- but not many. They're slabbed to sell in the future -- not to keep.

[mortimer brewster]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Just find and buy a nice raw lower to middle grade card from a reputable dealer and forget about this slabbing crap.

Well said. Especially if you are a novice. Then put the money you save into a nice Roth indexed fund with low P/E ratio . Years from now you will be glad you did.