Collectors Universe releases fourth quarter and fiscal year end earnings today

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

You make fair points. The most obvious response is that what is currently needed is not a method to expose tomorrow's alterations, but instead to expose yesterday's that were done with older methods and that I bet would light up under current detection methods.

The numbers of such slabbed altered cards IMO number in the tens of thousands and have a staggering collective market value. Yes, undoubtedly card doctors/counterfeiters will then be fast at work to come up with the latest method to elude detection, much the same way, say, manufacturers of radar detectors constantly update their devices to keep up with the latest radar guns. But presumably a TPG run the right way will too be constantly advancing and improving its methods.

Will altered/fake cards still get through? Undoubtedly, which just means it will not be perfect. But what is perfect? It won't take much for it to be a HUGE improvement over what currently exists. And for a person thinking about shelling out a five, six or seven figure sum for a card, which company do you think such a person would turn to for an opinion as to whether the card is altered/fake?

Who is going to crack out a card that expensive to have it reviewed and take the chance it isn't legit?

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who is going to crack out a card that expensive to have it reviewed and take the chance it isn't legit?

Not Ken Kendrick

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who is going to crack out a card that expensive to have it reviewed and take the chance it isn't legit?

The buyer. Assuming such a TPG company is up and running and has properly marketed its product (which will include well publicized random statistically significant crack outs of high grade vintage registry cards and showing them to have been altered), such a buyer will make his/her purchase contingent on the card being regraded under this new method. And if the seller is not willing to allow that, then the card will not hold its value relative to a card that is crossed over.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

The buyer. Assuming such a TPG company is up and running and has properly marketed its product (which will include well publicized random statistically significant crack outs of high grade vintage registry cards and showing them to have been altered), such a buyer will make his/her purchase contingent on the card being regraded under this new method. And if the seller is not willing to allow that, then the card will not hold its value relative to a card that is crossed over.

That seems very high risk to me unless the seller is absolutely certain of the provenance.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That seems very high risk to me unless the seller is absolutely certain of the provenance.

Or the seller can instead choose to take the risk, and if the card is no good, try to invoke PSA's grading guarantee. The alternative for the seller will the unenvious position of seeing the value of his registry cards steadily fall in value due to their failure to be graded by this new superior grading company.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Or the seller can instead choose to take the risk, and if the card is no good, try to invoke PSA's grading guarantee. The alternative for the seller will the unenvious position of seeing the value of his registry cards steadily fall in value due to their failure to be graded by this new superior grading company.

No guarantee if the card is removed from the holder, as you know.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No guarantee if the card is removed from the holder, as you know.

Yep. Not a great choice of options for the seller.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The CFO's statement that we don't consider the trimming issue material to our business is right up there with Sloan's initial statement and Orlando's blog post. The arrogance and tone deafness coming from this company is mind boggling.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No guarantee if the card is removed from the holder, as you know.

BTW, on this point, as we've discussed before, I believe it is just a matter of time before there is some massive civil litigation on this proscription of removing the card from the holder without voiding the guarantee. How else can a person prove the card is altered to pass the threshold PSA will undoubtedly impose to be entitled to receive pay out under the guarantee? For the high fees (up to $5K) PSA charges to grade cards, I don't think a court is going to so quickly dismiss such a suit.

If what I portend comes to pass if such a new TPG comes into being -- the loss of literally hundreds of millions of dollars of market value to registry cards -- the owners of those cards are not likely to accept that without a fight. And then there will be that test case of whether taking the card out of the slab under tightly controlled/supervised conditions for the sole purpose of having it regraded under more modern methods will void the guaranty.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Market Summary > Collectors Universe, Inc.


NASDAQ: CLCT

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[drcy]

Duly not that some examination can be done with the card in the holder. For example microscopy, infrared, opacity and blacklight. I've successfully used a microscope and black light on cards in PSA holders.

Though, it's important to remove the card for proper investigation-- but it would be cool, and very much possible, for some alterations to be scientifically identified with the card still in the holder. A method for this could be developed.

For the record, I firmly very don't believe modern technology can or will be able to make passable counterfeits (meaning counterfeits that will pass experts using proper identification methods).

The scans could further be used to identify future alterations, regrades, provenance etc and demonstrate that professional holders are not required. Further the scans allow the cards to be examined by experts without the need for the of the in-person card. Some sort of computer/AI software would identify the card and its history.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who is going to crack out a card that expensive to have it reviewed and take the chance it isn't legit?

Lots of guys if a new TPG starts blowing PSA out of the water. Admittedly that's not happening tomorrow.

[drcy]

I tend to see it as a company, but publishing of standard methods to identify alterations that many people, groups could use.

For a simple example, many collectors use a black light.

Though, certainly, with the available techniques and technologies, company or companies could do the work.

Personally, I would love it if any auction house or serious/advanced collector or dealer had the ability to examine holdered cards for alterations. Considering a learned collector or dealer would spend more time on any given card, they may prove better than the assembly line grading company.

I imagine a scanning/imaging system that not only would identify alterations but give an image as evidence, including evidence that can be emailed, posted, etc. Anything you examine can be photographed, and there are UV/IR cameras and digital microscopes that take digital photos. There are such advanced forensic light/imaging systems already. Thus, it's no longer "someone far away looked at it and said so and so," but here are the forensic images that were made for all to see.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by drcy

I tend to see it as a company, but publishing of standard methods to identify alterations that many people, groups could use.

For a simple example, many collectors use a black light.

Though, certainly, with the available techniques and technologies, company or companies could do the work.

Personally, I would love it if any auction house or serious/advanced collector or dealer had the ability to examine holdered cards for alterations. Considering a learned collector or dealer would spend more time on any given card, they may prove better than the assembly line grading company.

I imagine a scanning/imaging system that not only would identify alterations but give an image as evidence, including evidence that can be emailed, posted, etc. Anything you examine can be photographed, and there are UV/IR cameras and digital microscopes that take digital photos. There are such advanced forensic light/imaging systems already. Thus, it's no longer "someone far away looked at it and said so and so," but here are the forensic images that were made for all to see.

The first step towards that would be making a database or even a list of what the card should be if unaltered. Not just the usual standard size, but thickness, specifically how it reacts to UV, etc.

[drcy]

Yes.

This is actually something that should be looked into, and would solve many of the problems that currently exist.

As noted, forensic light systems, which go through the whole range of frequencies, exist and are used in other areas. And there could be a company or service that just provides the scans.

I also thing microscopic, or very large, scans be simultaneously be done to authenticate of the card. I have people email microscopic images or huge scans, and I can identify real from fake from those.

There are also systems that mathematically calculate the gloss by shining slightly off from head-on light at the surface, and systems for measuring the opacity (how much light goes through the material) These could be parts of the scanning systems.

In the future, cards may be able to be identified, authenticated and checked for alterations just via scans. And the great thing about scans is many people all over the place can look at them.